Conservative Candidate Is Within ‘Striking Distance’ Of Liberal Opponent In Swing State Judicial Contest: POLL

Conservative Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel is within “striking distance” of his liberal opponent, Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court election scheduled for April 1, according to a new polling memo released Thursday by Elon Musk’s Building America’s Future group.

Schimel, the Republican Wisconsin Attorney General from 2015 to 2019, is trailing Crawford 48% to 43%, according to the political nonprofit group’s survey conducted from March 17-18. Though Crawford is leading her conservative opponent outside the poll’s four point margin-of-error, Musk’s political group argues that Schimel has the momentum in the race as negative ads from conservative groups highlight Crawford’s soft-on-crime record. (RELATED: North Dakota Jury Rules Greenpeace Liable For Hundreds Of Millions In Damages)

Schimel was thirteen points behind Crawford just two weeks ago, the poll conducted by the Tyson Group found. Crawford is also experiencing a “drastic erosion in her support” — a 12% drop in favorability — as voters learn more about the left-wing judge’s views, according to Musk’s group.

The Wisconsin State Supreme Court contest is one of the most consequential elections of 2025.  The race is projected to be the most expensive judicial contest of all time with spending expected to topple $100 million.

President Donald Trump notably won the state in the November election by just under a full percentage point, beating former Vice President Kamala Harris, the then-Democratic nominee for president.

The winner will be given a ten-year term to weigh in on the future of redistricting as well as cultural issues, such as pro-life policies, in the critical swing state. Though the state’s supreme court contests are officially nonpartisan, left-wing justices will be seen as controlling a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court until 2028 if Schimel loses.

For Susan Crawford, putting pedophiles back on the street is a pattern. pic.twitter.com/w6gDpSrSXB

— Team Schimel (@TeamSchimel) March 19, 2025

Schimel supporters are raising the alarm that a Crawford victory could negatively impact the future makeup of Congress. Though the court declined to hear a congressional redistricting case brought by Democrats in March, Crawford appears to be supportive of hearing potential redistricting cases to benefit Democrats if she is elected to the bench.

Crawford notably participated in a Jan. 13 fundraising event organized by staffers to Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman that was marketed as a “chance to put two more House seats in play for 2026,” according to an email invitation for the event first reported by The New York Times.

“Crawford has made it clear that, if elected, she will rubber stamp Democrats’ radical agenda to gerrymander Wisconsin’s U.S. congressional districts,” Americans for Prosperity Wisconsin state director Megan Novak wrote in an op-ed for the Daily Caller News Foundation on March 11. “The consequences of this race could not be more real.”

Group’s backing Schimel should continue to pound Crawford’s campaign, attacking the judge’s record for being soft on law-and-order issues to weaken her support with left-of-center Wisconsinites, according to Musk’s group who claims the spate of negative television ads are working.

Schimel supporters have highlighted the fact that Crawford, as Dane County judge, gave a reduced sentence of just four years to a repeat child molester who sexually assaulted girls in swimming pools in 2019. Prosecutors reportedly asked Crawford to sentence the convicted sexual predator to at least ten years in prison, though the felony charges carried a maximum penalty of up to 60 years.

“I don’t regret that sentence because I followed the law in that case as I always do,” Crawford said during a debate with Schimel on March 12. “I applied the law which says that judges have to consider every relevant factor in sentencing.”

“You did sentence a child sex offender to four years in prison after prosecutors requested ten, do you regret that sentence?”

Susan Crawford: “I don’t regret that sentence.” pic.twitter.com/zg0qvtIH7B

— Team Schimel (@TeamSchimel) March 17, 2025

“Susan Crawford revealed last week that she is simply a soft-on-crime liberal with little concern for our most vulnerable communities, including our children,” Republican State Leadership Committee Mason Di Palma told the DCNF in a statement. “With early voting already underway and just two weeks left, it’s crucial for Wisconsinites to make their voices heard. The choice is clear: voters can choose Susan Crawford, who prioritizes the interests of criminals, or Brad Schimel, a principled conservative dedicated to upholding the rule of law and serving our community without political bias.”

In order to defeat Crawford, Schimel’s campaign must work to turn out Trump voters who are less inclined to turn out in full-force in an off-year election, according to analysis. Musk’s group is concerned that GOP voters will turnout out at a lesser rate than in November 2024, potentially benefiting Crawford.

“[T]here is more work to be done if Schimel is to pull off what would be a historic upset, but we believe we are within the margin of error,” Andrew Romeo, the group’s senior advisor writes. “The Schimel campaign is best positioned to remind the 14% of Trump voters who aren’t currently voting for him that he is a strong conservative and Trump ally. It is our hope that they do so aggressively in the remaining days.”

The Tyson Group poll surveyed 600 likely Wisconsin voters by phone and has a four point margin-of-error.

The Schimel and Crawford campaign’s did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

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