Democrat Special Election Win in Trump’s Backyard Signals Midterm Trouble for Republicans [WATCH]

A special election in Florida drew national attention Tuesday night after Democratic candidate Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in a State House race covering a district that includes Mar-a-Lago, prompting analysis from CNN’s senior data analyst Harry Enten about potential national implications.

Gregory secured a two-point victory in a district that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in the 2024 presidential election. Maples had received President Trump’s “complete and total endorsement” on Truth Social the night before Election Day.

During an appearance on “Erin Burnett OutFront,” Enten described the outcome as part of a larger pattern seen in recent elections.

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“In a district that [President] Donald Trump won by 11 points. That is a massive shift, right?” Enten said.

“That is a double-digit shift towards the Democrat.”

Enten added that the results reflect a trend beyond South Florida.

“And what I will say, what is so important, It is happening now in Donald Trump’s backyard, but it has been happening across the country. We have seen these massive shifts in these special elections,” he said.

“I looked at all of them. So far to date, the state legislative, the federal special elections.”

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Host Erin Burnett asked for clarification on the scope of the data.

“No matter what it’s for? Any special election?” Burnett asked.

“Correct. For state legislative or federal for Congress,” Enten responded.

“And what we’ve seen so far is a shift to the Democrats on average of 12 points. We have seen a shift of 12 points from the Kamala Harris baseline from what we saw. … It’s emblematic, Erin, of what we’ve seen nationwide.”

The results in Florida come amid a series of special elections in which Democrats have either won or outperformed expectations in districts that President Trump carried in 2024.

These races have taken place in multiple states, including Florida, Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Democrats have also shown stronger-than-expected performance in contests where they did not ultimately win, such as the December 2025 race for Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District.

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