Democrats Can Retake the South!

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 proved that there has been an ongoing realignment in American politics, so it’s not quite absurd for Democrats to believe that they may have a chance to win in places that have been hostile to Democrats for decades. The party of Bush and Romney flocked to their antithesis, after all. 

The suburbs that were once Republican are now competitive for Democrats, or even solidly in their camp. States like Florida, which were battlegrounds, are now solidly Red. 

So why not the South turning Democrat? Realignments happen, right?

Democrats have an opening in the South, but local leaders know they have work to do https://t.co/WjguDLUfRb

— POLITICO (@politico) May 27, 2025

With the exception of Georgia, which has been Democrat-curious and even elected two liberal Democratic Party senators who are currently serving, the rest of the South had been solid Republican territory. But if the Democrats could take some of those Southern states…

That is the thesis of POLITICO’s Playbook this morning. Democrats could force a realignment in the South, thus saving their party. 

For the average POLITICO reader, the idea appeals as much as a life preserver after your yacht capsizes in a storm. “We’re saved!” 

The problem? Having read the article, there is not one piece of evidence presented that suggests that this is remotely plausible. It is a dream, not a plan. 

A new class of Democratic leaders in the South are pitching voters on their party’s proposals to lower costs and increase wages, while casting blame on Republicans for an unsettled economy under President Donald Trump. They say that strategy is key not just for the midterms, but part of solving an existential threat for Democrats if they want to stand a chance in coming years at regaining national power.

Longer-term population shifts in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas that went to Trump in November, mean those states are poised to gain congressional and Electoral College seats. Florida — which many Democrats concede is a solidly GOP state — could also expand its influence. Democrats in these states are now warning that failing to mount a comeback could mean that winning the White House after the 2030 Census would be far more difficult.

The fix, according to a dozen Democratic leaders in the South, is to refocus the Democratic Party on the economy and border security — two areas of strength historically for the GOP. Kendall Scudder, a 35-year-old progressive who took over the Texas Democratic Party in March, said Democrats must “do everything we can to show that when we get out of bed in the morning, we eat glass to fight back and protect the working people of this state.”

In Georgia, Charlie Bailey, who was named Democratic Party chair this month, is also stressing that Democrats’ political survival depends on figuring out how to talk to working-class voters — and hammering Republicans on the economy.

“It is that kind of record of the Republicans that has voters with full cause to be angry,” Bailey said. “They know they’re being screwed. My job as the chair is to make sure they know who to blame.”

Do you see the problem? Long-term demographic shifts have been the cornerstone of the Democrats’ political strategy for two decades, and that is not working so well. Population shifts to Red states have, if anything, solidified their hold on Florida at least. And Texas has been a Blue mirage, not an opportunity. 

All told, Trump has improved every election in 1,433 of the nation’s 3,100+ counties — even as he lost in 2020.

Democrats have expanded their vote share continuously in only 57 counties.

But the demographics are even more revealing…

Gift link:https://t.co/KINfJds7X5

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) May 25, 2025

As for talking to working-class voters? The Democrats picked Tim Walz to “code talk” to them. I think it’s safe to say that they have yet to find the magic formula to reach voters who are alienated from the party. That’s why they are hiring experts, who have had a great record lately, to figure out how to communicate with men. 

Excerpt from the report. The Dem initiative is called “SAM” — “Speaking with American Men.”

They are spending $20M to try to find out they will speak with “authenticity” to young men. pic.twitter.com/6upSnVRidn

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) May 26, 2025

Duane has a post that will publish a bit later today that pats Democrats on the back for their brilliant strategies, and I totally concur. 

Still, as awful as the Democrats’ current political position is and as stupid as their strategies are, they do have one potential ace they can play should it be dealt to them: the state of the economy in 2026. We tend to overstate the importance of campaigns and underrate the importance of factors completely out of a candidate’s control. If the economy is in trouble next year, congressional seats that would normally be difficult or impossible for Democrats to win might become competitive. 

But short of a calamity for Republicans, Democrats are not going to retake the South.