In a significant development, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten announced Friday that former President Donald Trump may be positioned to make history by winning the national popular vote in the upcoming election.
Should Trump achieve this, he would be the first Republican nominee in 20 years to secure the popular vote—a milestone last reached by George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election bid.
Enten analyzed recent polling data and noted Trump’s narrow edge over Kamala Harris, emphasizing that Trump’s lead in some national polls places him within reach of winning the popular vote.
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“Trump may win the popular vote,” Enten commented. “Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College, but Harris will win the popular vote. But Trump may finally get his great white whale.”
Enten referenced various national polls, noting that the race is close, with some surveys showing Trump with a slight lead. For instance, a recent CNBC poll gave Trump a 2-point lead, while the Wall Street Journal poll placed him 3 points ahead of Harris.
Enten remarked, “The bottom line is, with the popular vote, which we really haven’t focused upon, a very, very tight race…Donald Trump is very much in a position where he could win the popular [vote], which, of course, this is something he would absolutely love to do.”
The average polling data currently shows Harris holding only a 1-point lead over Trump, a narrower margin than previously seen.
In comparison, Joe Biden held a 9-point advantage in the weeks before the 2020 election, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Trump by 6 points in late October 2016.
Enten described the closeness of this year’s polls, noting, “Harris in the average poll right now is up by 1, well within the margin of error…Donald Trump’s in a position he really hasn’t been before at this point in the campaign where he could truly compete…at this point, the popular vote is way too close to call.”
A Republican nominee last won the popular vote in 2004 when former President George W. Bush won re-election.
Prior to that, the last Republican to achieve a popular vote victory was Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush, in 1988.
Enten pointed to the unique opportunity facing Trump and Republicans this year: “The fact that the polls are so close, the fact that Donald Trump has a legitimate shot of winning the popular vote is something I think a lot of folks…didn’t think could possibly happen when Donald Trump was running last time around.”
Enten also noted that Trump is performing well in traditionally Democratic states, such as California and New York, in addition to solid Republican states like Florida and Texas.
There’s a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.
He’d be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years & only 2nd in 36 years. pic.twitter.com/Pp4LJPwUZe
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 25, 2024
Though these states alone would not determine a victory in the Electoral College, they contribute to Trump’s potential advantage in the popular vote.
According to the latest polling, the Wall Street Journal’s survey showed Trump leading Harris nationally by 47% to 45%, while CNBC’s poll confirmed a 2-point national lead for the former president.
Trump also holds a narrow 0.9-point lead against Harris across key battleground states, as reported in RealClearPolitics’ averages on Friday.
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