Demographic Breakdown Of Trump’s Gain Shows Magnitude Of Shift Away From The Democrats

A breakdown of the different demographics which shifted towards reveals the sheer scale of discontent towards the Democratic Party.

Not only was the election a blowout – it was a blowout in every demographic relative to 2020.

Traditionally Democrat voters and independent switched towards the GOP, often in 20+ point shifts in some cases when compared with 2012, when the neocon wing of the Republican Party was running the show.

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Beginning with race, Black voters were still largely in favor of Kamala Harris with the Democrat enjoying a 72-point advantage over her Republican rival. However, that marked a historic 19-point drop in support compared to 2012. Donald Trump’s largest gain came among Hispanic voters with a 29-point increase, while he gained 17 points among Asian voters and those whose race was not categorized.

Trump increased the GOP’s standing with White voters without a degree by 13 points. Nevertheless, his gains among ethnic minorities was replicated when nonwhite college-educated voters were factored in, with a gain of 21 points. The biggest net shift in his favor came among nonwhite voters without a degree, 35% of whom voted Republican in 2024 compared to just 17% 12 years prior.

While Trump didn’t win over younger votes, he did make gains of 14 points in the 18-29 year-old demographic, and 8 points in the 30-44 demographic. He also gained 8 points in the 45-64 demographics, which he won in 2012.

Quite a chart pic.twitter.com/EofHhhguQa

— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) November 25, 2024

Trump also gained net votes in every one of the 50 states – and the District of Columbia. In California the gain could top two million when all the votes are counted (and yes, they’re really still counting votes there).

Raw vote shift 2020 -> 2024

CA: Trump +1,909,237*
NY: Trump +1,067,560*
FL: Trump +1,055,401
TX: Trump +937,681
NJ: Trump +473,580
IL: Trump +413,340*
MA: Trump +377,390*
MI: Trump +234,291
PA: Trump +201,972
TN: Trump +200,696
AZ: Trump…

— Christian Heiens (@ChristianHeiens) November 24, 2024

Some on social media questioned whether the shift in support was as a result of discontent with Joe Biden’s administration.

I don’t think that the magnitude of the shift is anywhere close to what we see here, because a lot of people simply voted for Republicans due to their unhappiness with the Biden Administration. Things will move left again, but some of the rightward shift will definitely stick.…

— Ali Minai (@barbarikon) November 26, 2024

One question that hasn’t really been asked or answered — why so much animosity toward Biden? It seemed more personal than policy motivated.

— Bill Straub (@williamgstraub) November 25, 2024

Others called for further insight into the data.

Also important to know how many in each demographic actually voted. I have not seen that data anywhere yet.

— Alicia Strohl Resnicoff (@AliciaResnicoff) November 26, 2024

Wonder why they chose 2012 as the baseline year.

— Seth Weidman (@SethHWeidman) November 26, 2024

Given that 2012-2024 was only a 6% shift overall, and most of these are double digit shifts towards Republicans, I feel like a chart of things that got better for Democrats would be helpful (I assume “less white electorate” is part of it, but there must be more to it than that)

— John (@johnlk_80) November 25, 2024

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