Denmark to Trump: Let’s Make a Deal?

Alternate headline: Author Announces Sequel to Blockbuster “The Art of the Deal.”

During his first term as president, Donald Trump expressed interest in buying Greenland from Denmark, to the bemusement of many. Although at the time he also noted that it wasn’t “number one on the front burner” of his foreign-policy focus, Trump continued to pursue it. None other than Joe Manchin cautiously supported the idea for strategic purposes, especially with China’s campaign to woo the Greenlanders even in 2018 becoming a concern. Denmark put a stop to that, but Trump was not convinced that China would let it go, especially with their own ambitions for Arctic resources.

Trump has made this a much bigger subject in his transition into a second non-consecutive term, and at first Denmark scoffed at the notion. They are not scoffing now, Axios reports, as it has become apparent that Trump is very serious about the strategic risks of Greenland’s status and wants the US to firmly control that region. The government in Copenhagen has opened talks to see if Trump would be willing to settle for a deal short of a sale:

Behind the scenes: The sources said the Danish government wants to avoid a public clash with the new U.S. administration, and asked members of the Trump team for clarification regarding what exactly the president-elect meant in his comments earlier this week.

• In the messages passed to the Trump team, the Danish government made clear Greenland was not for sale but expressed readiness to discuss any other U.S. request regarding the island, the sources said.
• The U.S. already has a military base on Greenland and an agreement with Denmark dating to 1951 on defending the island, under which an increase of U.S. forces could easily be discussed.
• Danish officials have already said they are looking into further measures to increase investment in military infrastructure and capabilities in Greenland, in consultation with the Greenlandic government.

The latter is a complication in any discussions over the status of Greenland. It functions as a semi-autonomous enclave, where fewer than 60,000 native Danes actually live. Copenhagen only controls its external functions — trade and security — while the Greenlanders govern themselves in all other areas. The Greenlanders don’t want to become Americans (at the moment), but they also don’t want to remain under the Danes any longer either. They want independence, which is not in the interests of either the US or Denmark.

Trump’s push to buy Greenland might come at a time when the Danes could have wanted to be rid of the political headache, but that’s clearly not the case. They also want access to the Arctic resource troves, along with Russia, China, Canada, and the US. Otherwise, they might have already cut a deal with Trump in 2019 and left the political headache in Washington DC, along with the identical headache of Puerto Rico and its much larger population demanding either statehood or independence. 

Even with that potential headache looming, Trump and his team still see Greenland as such a critical strategic issue that they’re willing to bully an ally to secure it. Having made the ‘outrageous’ demand and making it clear that the new administration will pursue it through all means necessary, Trump has at least forced the Danes into negotiations over any other means by which the new administration might be satisfied. That is a step in the right direction for Trump, who may well just want to ensure that the US has a monopoly on military access, given the obvious implications of Greenland’s proximity to the US.  

Axios wonders if that will be enough:

The main question is whether Trump would be content to cut a deal with Denmark and declare victory, or whether his true mission is to become the first president in 80 years to gain new territory for the U.S.

I’d bet on the former rather than the latter, but the Danes have to worry more about the latter rather than the former. And maybe all Trump wanted was to have the Danes take Greenland’s security more seriously. If so, then Trump has already won with this Christmas report:

Denmark is increasing defense spending in Greenland, said a Danish official Tuesday who called the announcement’s timing with President-elect Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. should own the territory an “irony of fate.”

The big picture: Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told the outlet Jyllands-Posten on Tuesday of plans to spend a “double-digit billion amount” in krone, equivalent to at least $1.5 billion, on the self-ruled territory that’s part of its kingdom to ensure a “stronger presence” in the Arctic. … 

Poulsen told Jyllands-Posten the Danish government’s plan for Greenland included long-range drones, more inspection ships and sled patrols in the territory and an upgrade to Kangerlussuaq Airport so it can accommodate F-35 fighter jets.

That sounds a lot like what Trump wants other NATO countries to do — start investing their own money into the common defense.