DId Russia Shoot Down Another Civilian Passenger Jet?

Did Russia just shoot down another passenger jet full of civilians? Reuters is reporting, based on four anonymous sources, that they did.

One of the Azerbaijani sources familiar with Azerbaijan’s investigation into the crash told Reuters that preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system. Its communications were paralysed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny, the source said. 

“No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft,” the source said.

Three other sources confirmed that the Azeri investigation had come to the same preliminary conclusion. Russia’s Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

They expect the Russians to confess? That doesn’t sound like the Russians to me. Earlier, a Kremlin spokesperson warned against speculating before the investigation was complete.

President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the investigation into the cause of the crash was underway.

“It would be incorrect to make any hypotheses before the investigation comes to conclusions, and we definitely cannot do it and no one should do it,” he said in his daily press conference.

After the plane was hit, it was still flying but was denied permission by Russia to make an emergency landing at several nearby airports. Instead it was told to fly across the Caspian Sea to make a landing on the other side. One Azerbaijani news site suggests this was done intentionally in hopes that the plane would sink into the sea and kill all of the witnesses.

As is known, the Grozny airport refused to allow the aircraft to land. Moreover, the Azerbaijani aircraft was also denied landing permissions at the airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody. The disoriented crew, subjected to air defence fire and electronic warfare (EW) systems, was redirected to the Kazakh city of Aktau. It can be assumed that this recommendation was given with one goal: to have the aircraft crash into the Caspian Sea, where all witnesses would perish and the aircraft would sink. However, this is merely our assumption. Alternative versions circulating in Russian media are deliberate disinformation attempts to mislead public opinion. Video recordings from the aircraft cabin indicate that two passengers were injured by shrapnel. All eyewitness testimony, including reports of explosions heard outside the aircraft, points to the involvement of air defence systems.

The Russians were hoping to bury the evidence beneath the waves, but incredibly about half of the people onboard survived the crash landing and explosion which was caught on video. 

This is a full length video of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan. What the hell happened? pic.twitter.com/7CL6SwMne8

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) December 25, 2024

One of the people who survived the crash filmed a video at the scene in which you can clearly see shrapnel damage to the tail of the plane.

NEW: The man who filmed a video for his wife as the Azerbaijan Airlines fell from the sky, miraculously survived, filmed another video showing apparent shrapnel damage.

It is now suspected that the plane crashed after being hit by Russian air defenses.

Subkhon Rakhimov, the man… pic.twitter.com/Gln20M8FjL

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 26, 2024

From this video you can see evidence of shrapnel damage to the plane’s cabin before it crashed.

Azerbaijan Airlines 8243
New footage from the plane after the explosion has appeared. It shows from the cabin that there is a hole in the skin from a piece of shrapnel. The woman sitting next to her has a damaged leg.
1/2 pic.twitter.com/KMyLbcmj1T

— Fotobiene (@Fotobiene) December 25, 2024

Already one expert has said the images of the wreckage show the plane was shot down.

“Subsequent reporting and contextual information, including the follow-on video examination of the wreckage … and circumstances surrounding the airspace security environment in southwest Russia, leads Osprey to assess that the flight was likely shot down by a Russian air defense system,” said Matthew Borie, chief intelligence officer at the aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions.

Borie said another potential theory, that the plane collided with a bird or birds, would have probably led to reports of more than one explosion and the damage to the aircraft appearing differently.

Ten years ago, Russian-backed forces used a Russian surface-to-air missile to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing 298 people. Russia blamed the Ukrainian military.