End O’ the World Tariffs B-B-Bring in Bah-Bah-Bah-Billions in April

This headline had to kah-kah-kah-KILL CNBC.

Oh, you know it did.

Tariff receipts topped $16 billion in April, a record that helped cut the budget deficit

Sit back for a minute and let that sink in.

Before we get to the nitty gritty numbers stuff.

SCHWEET

Receipts from U.S. tariffs hit a record level in April as revenue from President Donald Trump’s trade war started kicking in.

Customs duties totaled $16.3 billion for the month, some 86% above the $8.75 billion collected during March and more than double the $7.1 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department reported Monday.

That brought the year-to-date total for the duties up to $63.3 billion and more than 18% ahead of the same period in 2024. Trump instituted 10% across-the-board tariffs on U.S. imports starting April 2, which came on top of other select duties he had leveled previously.

While the U.S. is still running a massive budget deficit, the influx in tariffs helped shave some of the imbalance for April, a month in which the Treasury generally runs a surplus because of the income tax filing deadline hitting mid-month.

Every penny helps.

That’s because we’re still on Bidens budget

— Tom Franco (@realblackpill) May 12, 2025

The tariffs and Trump’s whipsaw international economics maneuvering have analysts confounded that the immediate and absolute impending doom, death, and destruction as a consequence of Trump’s recklessness that they have so endlessly brayed about and are so invested in might inexplicably be put off for a while longer.

They are now to the point where they’re hedging their bets to the upside before data is released.

Inflation data to reveal impacts of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

This week’s inflation report will offer a first look at how President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement has impacted pricing across the United States.

Trump’s tariff escalation, announced April 2, set off fears among economists and consumers about a possible burst of inflation, since importers typically pass along a share of such taxes in the form of price hikes.

Government data, which will be published Tuesday, is expected to show that pricing has defied such worries – at least for now.

Economists expect prices to have increased 2.3% over the year ending in April, which would mark a slight cooldown from the prior month.

And while they still sing Cassandra’s song about any Trump-related policy move, it’s now tinged with a subtle brushing of ‘it’s got to get worse, but not as bad as it could have been.’

…However, many analysts anticipate a rekindling of inflation over the coming months as retailers begin to replenish inventory with goods imported after the tariffs took effect.

Even so, a rollback of some levies since “Liberation Day” may reduce the impact on inflation.

The media is pumping the negatives over the positives just as hard and fast as their little pointy heads can shut down any good news trying to bubble to the surface. Even when – perhaps especially if – it’s a liberal not toeing the narrative line.

NEW: CNN anchor cuts off a guest mid-sentence as he praises Trump’s economic rebound—just to push the network’s official talking points.

Liberal commentator Elliot Williams was in the middle of an unusual moment: giving Trump credit for a surging stock market.

“The news out of… pic.twitter.com/uapJ6CAHnD

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 12, 2025

…“The news out of the market is wonderful today,” he said.  

“I don’t know where we are at the moment—we’re not running a ticker. But you know, the DOW was up 1,000 points a little bit earlier in the day.” 

“It’s responding to—” 

That’s when CNN’s Kasie Hunt jumped in to stop him. 

“Actually here, let me jump in because we do have…our sort of…..‘reportable lines’ on this,” Hunt said, quickly shifting the tone…

Every last one of Hunt’s ‘reportable lines’ which she then preceded to spew were ‘Trump sucks and so does this economy.’

The ‘yeah, buts’ are plenty.

Trump’s trade war has planted a series of bombs in the consumer economy that will inevitably hit Christmas https://t.co/0b846EMhky

— Bloomberg (@business) May 13, 2025

Bloomberg is flat-out ‘Too late – Trump has already killed Christmas.’

…Because the process of bringing goods to the US starts months in advance of their appearance on store shelves, a whole host of disruptions has already been baked into the rest of 2025, even if the average person can’t see them yet. In particular, it could be slim pickings for many seasonal goods commonly imported from China—prom and wedding dresses, fireworks for the Fourth of July, new TVs for football season, laptops for kids going off to college, and toys and gadgets and beauty product gift sets for Christmas—just as Americans head to stores looking for them. An extended period of shortages and financial strain on regular people might lead us into a very tariffed holiday season.

Trump’s trade war has planted a series of bombs in the consumer economy that will go off for at least the rest of the year. Even if the tariffs disappeared tomorrow—a best-case scenario—“you probably have another six months to wrestle through it before you can get somewhat back to normalcy,” says Rob Holston, the global and Americas consumer products sector leader at EY. “The spike has been put into the system, and it’s not like you can just pull it back.” In an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance, Gene Seroka, the executive director at the Port of Los Angeles—the country’s busiest container port and the one that handles the bulk of Chinese imports—estimated that most US retailers have only about a five- to seven-week stockpile of pre-tariffed goods left on hand.

Quelle surprise.

‘Trump caved’ is also a trending theme of the day.

In addition to parroting the CCP’s face-saving propaganda, this is so incredibly stupid: China accepts getting slapped with 30% tariffs on their goods while tariffs on US goods will be just 10%…and THEY got the better of Trump? https://t.co/if6U1yO30t

— David Asman (@DavidAsmanfox) May 13, 2025

However, there is absolutely a sober middle ground to all this as the tariff wars work toward conclusions that are more fair and balanced to US trade. This one-time massive influx of duties cash is more like a bonus payment to help tide things over, as opposed to a new source of dependable monthly income. While Congress, in theory, straightens out our domestic issues.

Here’s customs duties in Apr, absolutely exploding to ~$16 billion, bringing FYTD to ~$59 billion, vs. ~$44 billion same time last FY; now that front running of tariffs is over, this revenue stream for the gov’t is going to plunge back down to earth: https://t.co/NYoxIqYNAP pic.twitter.com/yQ1vEtenr6

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) May 12, 2025

If only our slender Congressional majority had the wisdom to listen to cautionary tales in order to accentuate the positives and build on them.

US Treasury Shocks With Second Biggest Budget Surplus In History Thanks To Record Tariff Revenues https://t.co/2C4Ux7r1Dq

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2025

There is positive news if they can get their act together.

Two weeks ago, as part of its quarterly refunding announcement, the Treasury surprised the market when it unveiled a funding need for the current quarter that was $53 billion lower than it had initially forecast in February, and which we said “indicates that DOGE is indeed working and the US funding needs are actually declining.”

Needless to say, for a market that was habituated to Joe Biden’s debt-funded drunken sailor spending ways, the news that the US would needs less – not more – spending than previously expected, came as a shock, and yields slumped as less debt than expected would be required to fund the world’s most indebted government.

Today we got the reason why the borrowing need of the US was surprisingly lower than previously expected, and it was revealed in the latest Treasury Monthly Statement laying out the US government’s monthly deficit… or rather surplus. Yes, we are so used to describing the sum-total of the US government’s monthly income statement as a deficit (i.e., more spending than revenue) that it has become automatic to assume that every month the US will spend more than it brings in. Only this time that wasn’t the case.

Presenting Exhibit A: in April, the US Treasury generated a $258.4 billion surplus after last month’s $160.5 billion deficit; this the second biggest surplus on record, with just the $308 billion bumper surplus in 2021 bigger.

It’s all like this one-time shot in the arm that must be taken advantage of, or it’s wasted.

…That said, April’s bumper revenue aside, all five main spending categories are growing much faster than revenue, and something drastically has to change for this big picture to become viable. Unfortunately, we have now seen the wholsesale pushback Trump has faced when doing just that – trying to restructure a broken status quo – which is why unless Trump magically succeeds in this undertaking, the US is pretty much doomed (while DOGE’s achievements have been admirable, they are a drop in the bucket in the context of Congresionally appropriate spending) as nobody else will ever come close to Trump’s intended overhaul of the US fiscal picture.

With a GOP Congress that’s managed to get five bills signed in over 100 days, squandered precious time squabbling over babysitters, and now ridiculous income tax carveouts for profligate blue states, I just want to shake them ’til their teeth rattle.

We do have positive economic rafts floating our way to the rescue in a sea full of fiscal monsters. 

But these self-absorbed lumps on logs keep splashing the water, so no one can grab one and help the country climb aboard.