Europe Not So Unified on Ukraine After All

The Europeans are trying to project a united front on Ukraine, and I don’t blame them in principle. 

They have invested a lot of political and material capital in weakening Putin for what they consider to be good strategic reasons. A weaker Russia is, in principle, in their interests. So far the Ukraine War has been a relatively cheap way to chip away at Putin’s military power, including manpower, weapons, and weapons platforms. 

Russia is much poorer than Europe–the EU has 10x the GDP of Russia–so investing a $100 billion or two into destroying Russia’s military makes sense to them, especially if they can get the US to shoulder about the same amount without having as strong an interest in weakening Russia. 

But whatever they say, Europe is not fighting this war (by proxy) in order to affirm some grand political vision of freedom and democracy; this is a cold-blooded calculation of the costs and benefits of bleeding Russia dry using Ukrainians as the cannon fodder. Under all the rhetoric, that is the realpolitik calculation, just as the first Iraq war was about control of oil. 

That’s not to say that there isn’t an ideological component to the war, but there are plenty of places in the world where horrible injustices are done without Europeans taking a glance, no less committing resources. 

Now that Trump has made it clear that he is not on board with the strategy–he wants the war done with–the Europeans are splitting up between the “forever war” clique and the “we have gottten as much out of this as we could” camp. 

‘A British official said: “There are various options on the table, subject to further discussions with the US and European partners, but a one-month truce has not been agreed.”’ https://t.co/7ErhtUMcYm

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 3, 2025

When Zelenskyy rushed to Great Britain after the fiasco in the Oval, Europeans embraced him in public while chastising him in private for going too far. They, too, hoped that Trump could be publicly shamed into writing a blank check, of course, and I think they underestimated Trump’s intransigence given their history with Biden. Biden had been frustrated with Zelenskyy and had even yelled at him in private, but always stood with him publicly. Zelenskyy likely thought, especially given the advice from Democrats before the meeting to renege on the deal, that he could win a fight with Trump. 

That was a stupid gamble, obviously, but everybody thought it would be relatively cost-free. 

Now that it’s clear that it was hardly that, Europeans are doing an about face, with even the most hawkish, like Kier Starmer, making Churchillian noises while doing the Chamberlain dance. 

That cute little stunt Kier Starmer did is already being walked back as it didn’t work and only embarrassed everyone except the USA, which now looks stronger than ever. https://t.co/uywP7GAxX0

— Cernovich (@Cernovich) March 2, 2025

Pravda Media would have you believe that Europeans are shocked and united in their desire to back Zelenskyy’s fever dream of retaking the Donbas and Crimea, but not one single world leader believes that is possible. That’s why not one of these countries did much to help Zelenskyy when Crimea was taken and the Donbas invaded. Europeans were happy enough to have Ukraine bleed Russia, but wouldn’t risk World War III for unachievable ends. 

When Biden was president, the policy was, quite literally, forever war. Biden and European leaders carefully managed escalation, giving Ukraine enough weapons to maintain a stalemate, but not enough to put Russia at great risk. The aid was carefully calibrated to ensure the war went on as long as possible. This is why Zelenskyy has consistently complained about having his hands tied in the war. 

The war had a secondary benefit for the transnational elite beyond bleeding Russia dry: the opportunity for vast amounts of graft. However downplayed, everybody knows that Ukraine is now and was before the war one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and not coincidentally a source of income for Western politicians’ families and friends. E.g., Hunter Biden. 

Blob Media hit on “Ukraine corruption” so much before the war because “anti-corruption” probes, NGOs & prosecutors were key to securing political control of Ukraine. When the war hit, the far bigger blockage to control was territorial loss to Russia. So, “no more corruption.” https://t.co/ILDzU23XlV

— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) March 2, 2025

But the fact is that without the United States, Europe cannot continue bleeding Russia dry, and “rebuilding” Ukraine will provide a lot of opportunities for graft in any case. 

So the European consensus is fracturing. NATO head Mark Rutte has chastised Zelenskyy for walking away from the deal and insulting Trump, knowing that US support for NATO is crucial to their security. You may have noticed that after the London meeting, Zelenskyy was only given token support from the UK–a paltry $3 billion and verbal support–and Zelenskyy suddenly said he wants to sign the deal. Trump will probably leave him hanging for a while and then agree to some version of it, perhaps less friendly to Ukraine as punishment. 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that US President Donald Trump “is totally committed” to NATO and Article 5. pic.twitter.com/svRX3WhXXl

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) March 3, 2025

The French are splitting off, as is Hungary. Germany has always been skeptical of sending weapons to Ukraine and deeply opposed to striking inside Europe, although they have kept their criticisms muted in public. Germany has been deindustrializing and can’t afford to divert massive resources, especially without US backing. And the UK Ambassador to the US has said Zelenskyy must agree to Trump’s plan. 

🚨 President Trump’s negotiation skills are unmatched—bar none! 💼 Zelenskyy Ready to make a mineral deal?

He schooled that coward Zelenskyy, who can’t move without America’s might but still cons the UK for cash and begs for deals. Donald J Trump sees through the grift and would… pic.twitter.com/PwCcCoadIa

— Rafael Santiago (@RaphySantiag) March 2, 2025

It’s likely that politicians who will never face a vote, like Ursula von der Layen are pushing to continue the forever war, but the rest of Europe will fall in line because US support for their defense is far more important than the fate of Ukraine’s periphery. The status quo with a DMZ is more than adequate to preserve their security, so Zelenskyy had better be prepared to be jettisoned. 

If I were Zelenskyy, I, too, would be furious. They lied to him about what would happen. They wrote checks they never could cash. 

But the fact is that moral posturing is easy. Ensuring national security is much harder.