EXCLUSIVE: Poll Shows Brandon Herrera Overtaking Tony Gonzales In Key House Primary

New polling shows incumbent Republican Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales on defense with challenger Brandon Herrera taking the lead in a key House primary, according to a new Political Intelligence (PI) poll obtained by the Daily Caller.

The PI poll, conducted between Dec. 17 and Dec. 22, 2025, asked “likely Republican primary election voters” who they would support if the race in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District were held immediately.

Has the recent scandal involving Congressman Tony Gonzales (had an affair with his married staffer which may have been a factor in her su1c1de via self-immolation) led you to prefer Brandon Herrera in the TX-23 Congressional District?

Who would you support?

— Brick Suit (@Brick_Suit) October 21, 2025

Of the 422 likely Republican primary voters surveyed, 29% said they would vote for Gonzales, with 11% indicating they are “leaning” toward the incumbent. Gonzales’ most competitive challenger, Herrera — an entrepreneur and Second Amendment activist — polled at 33%, with 22% saying they would “definitely” vote for him and another 11% leaning in his favor. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: GOP Rep Could Be In Big Trouble If Public Learns More About Alleged Affair Partner Setting Herself On Fire)

The poll also asked voters how they would respond if only the top two candidates appeared on the primary ballot. In that scenario, 34% said they would vote for Gonzales — including 23% who said they would “definitely” support him — while 43% backed Herrera, with 32% saying they would “definitely” vote for the challenger. Another 23% of respondents said they were “undecided.”

“Texas is tired of woke Tony Gonzales. The only thing worse than his voting record is his character. I’m giving Texas 23 what they deserve, a pro-gun, pro-life, pro-Trump congressman,” Herrera told the Caller in a statement.

President Donald Trump officially endorsed Gonzales in the race on Dec. 18, declaring in a Truth Social post that Gonzales has his “COMPLETE and Total Endorsement for Re-Election.”

An earlier The Trafalgar Group poll, conducted between Oct. 26 to Oct. 29, 2025, shows Gonzales’ support from GOP primary voters cratering after they learned of his alleged affair with Regina Santos-Aviles, the regional district director for Gonzales, who died after setting herself on fire in her Uvalde, Texas, backyard in September.

Multiple sources, speaking to 24sight News and the Daily Mail, claimed that Santos-Aviles, who was married, was allegedly involved in an affair with Gonzales.

Before joining Gonzales’ Uvalde office as regional director, Santos-Aviles served as the executive director of the Uvalde Area Chamber of Commerce, a position she left in November 2021, according to her LinkedIn profile.

Nearly two months after the death of one of his staffers, Gonzales publicly addressed the circumstances surrounding Santos-Aviles’ death for the first time. (RELATED: Death Of Congressional Staffer For Republican Texas Rep Under Investigation)

During a one-on-one interview in November at The Texas Tribune Festival, Gonzales said he was unaware of the exact circumstances of Santos-Aviles’ Sept. 14 death. Responding to speculation, he told the outlet, “People throwing rocks at me, saying I’m doing nasty things — I totally get that. But the rumors are completely untruthful.”

Rather than focus on the allegations, Gonzales urged the public to remember Santos-Aviles for her dedication to her work and community.

“I would hope that everyone remembers her for her passion, for her job, her commitment to the community,” he said.

Trafalgar conducted a separate public poll Oct. 31–Nov. 1, 2025, that shows Gonzales leading the Texas 23rd primary with 40.4% support, followed closely by Herrera at 35.2%, with the remainder of voters undecided.