Flipping the Rare Earth Script

My girlfriend Leslie Eastman over at Legal Insurrection tagged me on a huge piece of news just a bit ago, and I wanted to share it with you all. It has to do with both the Trump administration’s focus on removing us from China’s sphere of influence, as far as critical supply chain issues and rare earth elements (REE), and illustrates the speed at which the Trump train is willing to move to get Americans there first.

This is just a hoot. What happened was that the Europeans got an unwelcome lesson from the new US administration in the old adage ‘you snooze, you lose.’

Absolutely brutal… 🇺🇸🇪🇺

The EU Commissioner of Industry:

“Last month, I was supposed to go to Brazil to discuss a rare earth mine. 3 days before, we were told that the Americans had already come, put money on the table, and bought all production until 2030.” pic.twitter.com/rYLfLJcD0s

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) December 9, 2025

The EU figured nothing could happen because of the shutdown?

AU CONTRAIRE, MON FRERE

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. The EU is used to meandering about the world lecturing people on how to live in their own countries if they want to do business with the European Union, and then sauntering on in later to discuss particulars about what the EU needs from them.

As someone notes in the post’s comments, with Trump on the prowl, they are going to have to retool their usual modus operandi.

EU moves at lightning speed pic.twitter.com/3TN2rT4jri

— Richard (@RichardUpTheBiz) December 9, 2025

While this predatory strike was a classic and will only fuel European impotent ire even further, there was other REE news released that is hugely exciting and gets us much further along on the road to being completely independent of Chinese sources.

Yesterday, a company called Blackboxstocks had a big announcement on that front. What made it so exciting was that it was from the REE mining and refining side, something that has been missing in most of these latest press releases.

And it will be fully operational in ‘early 2027,’ ensuring North America’s ‘first commercial-scale, zero-Chinese nexus, heavy rare earths supply chain.’

Partnership advances the continent’s first fully funded and permitted heavy rare earth refining pathway, delivering first to market production for allied supply chains

Meets all Title 50 defense-sourcing requirements under U.S Code — with zero Chinese / non-allied nexus

Commercial production expected in early 2027, strengthening North American and allied supply chains amid intensifying global competition

DALLAS, Dec. 08, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Blackboxstocks Inc. (NASDAQ: BLBX), (“Blackbox” or the “Company”), is pleased to announce that its merger target, REalloys Inc. (“REA” or “REalloys”), has entered into a historic partnership with the Saskatchewan Research Council (“SRC”), anchored by a commercial processing and long-term offtake agreement to expand the heavy rare earth refining capability at SRC’s Rare Earth Processing Facility in Saskatoon, SK. Under the partnership, REalloys has secured 80% of annual production of the upgraded capacity from the facility¹ enabling a compliant, North American supply chain for the Company’s defense industrial base clients, including the U.S. Department of Defense.

The agreements reestablish North America’s midstream rare earth capability and reposition SRC’s facility — now nearing completion — as the continent’s first fully integrated, commercial-scale rare earth processing and metals facility. Equipped with monazite processing, AI-controlled rare earth element (“REEs”) separation, and advanced metal-smelting systems, the facility anchors a supply chain previously available only in China and is dedicated to the extraction and refining of heavy rare earth elements (“REEs”) including Dysprosium (Dy), Terbium (Tb), and Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr). The facility will be fully operational for heavy rare earth production in early 2027.

Production Capacity and Expansion

…This facility expansion positions REalloys to deliver a secure, North American supply of these mission-critical materials just as new U.S. defense procurement rules take effect on January 1, 2027. Under 10 U.S.C. §4872 and DFARS 252.225-7052, the U.S. Department of Defense will be prohibited from sourcing rare earth metals, magnets, or components from China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea — ensuring American national security relies on trusted, domestic and allied partners.

Under Title 50, the framework governing U.S. defense and national-security sourcing, the United States now requires critical materials to originate from trusted domestic or allied producers. The REalloys–SRC partnership answers that requirement directly, establishing North America’s first commercial-scale, zero-China nexus, heavy rare earths supply chain.

That’s what it’s all about.

Hell yeah, North America’s finally cutting the umbilical cord.

— skrptd (@iamskrptd) December 8, 2025

Blackboxstocks spiked after word of the deal broke, too.

Shares of Blackboxstocks Inc. (BLBX) surged more than 12% at premarket trading on Monday, after its merger target, REalloys Inc., partnered with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) to expand heavy rare earth refining capacity in North America.

Which goes to my next bit of news.

The United States National Security Strategy (NSS) was published last week, and a core tenet of the doctrine puts supply chain security squarely at the center of U.S. power going forward. And this industry newsletter is warning investors and industry types to adjust for that critical shift in American focus, and to be prepared for difficulties ahead if they are not aligned with American goals.

 Signal 6 – United States: Critical minerals enter the core of national security doctrine

What happened

The 2025 United States National Security Strategy (NSS) was published this week and, among other geopolitical priorities, explicitly positions critical minerals and supply-chain security as central to U.S. economic and strategic power. The NSS recognizes that minerals essential for defence, energy transition, technology and infrastructure are strategic assets, and indicates that the U.S. will deploy policy, finance and diplomacy to secure supply, develop domestic capacity, and partner with allied producers (as previewed in our recent article on the subject).

Why it matters

By elevating critical minerals to the level of national security, the U.S. formally reframes them as strategic resources akin to energy or defence infrastructure. This makes supportive policies, permitting acceleration, public finance, trade and diplomatic investment, far more likely and durable. For mining companies, this may translate into subsidised capital, priority processing permits, and preferential access to U.S. markets or defence-linked supply chains.

For global investors, the move increases demand pressure on minerals in the U.S. critical list, particularly when supply from China remains constrained. Jurisdictions that offer transparent mining, refining and export frameworks, especially aligned with U.S. allies, may benefit most. Projects outside those frameworks may face funding scarcity or demand uncertainty.

Implications for capital and strategy

• For investors/boards, assets producing minerals on the expanded U.S. critical minerals list – and supply-chain compliant – are likely to attract strategic capital, possibly at better terms, thanks to public mandate backing them.
• Permitting, export, and offtake assumptions should now include a premium for “strategic security aligned” supply; this influences discount rates, long-term contracts and financing conditions.
• Global portfolios should be reassessed for alignment with the U.S. and allied supply-chain architectures: projects in jurisdictions outside those architectures may face increasing competitive and regulatory headwinds.

In other words, the smart bettors will watch where the U.S. is going and lead, follow, or get out of the way.

This is a game-changer for North American supply chains. Finally, a fully funded heavy rare earth refinery outside of China strengthens national security, EV production, and high-tech industries ,cutting Beijing out of the critical minerals equation.

— Ryan 🦅 (@RyanShowlive) December 8, 2025

REEs are critical to the U.S. defense industry, yet president after president has allowed the offshoring of nearly all of their production.

Without rare earth metals, the US military is unable to function. In one of the biggest mistakes ever, the USA allowed this crucial industry to be captured by China.

Decades ago, China decided they want to own the rare earth metals industry. They built all of the refineries and… pic.twitter.com/09h0ngajw9

— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) November 30, 2025

…They built all of the refineries and smelters needed to process the raw ore.  

Environmental regulations made it impossible to build or modernize in Europe or the USA. Over time China captured 90% of the market. It doesn’t matter where the raw ore is mined, it still has to be sold to China because that is almost the only place to process the ore. 

Despite the name, rare earth metals are not rare. There are plenty of places around the globe that have the resources. But nobody wants to allow the refineries or smelters.

This is a good, quick little primer on why the processing shifted to China about 40 years ago. As we all know, it’s dirty, and there are nasty byproducts produced. But as the fellow in the video explains, the technology China is using remains that 40-year-old method, which is basically still just smelting. There’s been no need for them to improve anything – the Chinese own the market. 

China’s “economic miracle” exposed: In Baotou, Inner Mongolia, toxic sludge from rare earth mining—vital for your EVs, smartphones, and “green” tech—is dumped straight into a massive artificial lake. @PhaedraXTeddy @WarrenVsCCP pic.twitter.com/euHFczKkTE

— Amanthi Ranasinghe (@AmanthiRanx5) December 9, 2025

However, over the decades, there have been advances that would exponentially improve the process, making it cleaner and more efficient. Those might now well be worth investing in and developing further for our own use here.

Rare earth metals are not rare.

The issue is the smelters and refineries to make the finished rare earth metals from the raw ore.

It has been impossible for over 40 years to build these types of industries in Europe, the USA or anywhere except China.

So China built them and… pic.twitter.com/Jug61HnsT8

— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) November 16, 2025

Sadly, the Japanese have been way ahead of us for more than a decade on this, having woken up to what was happening in enough time to try to turn things around.

Sojitz, a Japanese conglomerate, turned to Lynas, an Australian mining company, to build a rare-earth supply chain outside China. Lynas mines in Australia and refines in Malaysia.

It took 15 years for Japan to pull it off but the first step was becoming aware of the problem.…

— wretchardthecat (@wretchardthecat) December 8, 2025

…It took 15 years for Japan to pull it off but the first step was becoming aware of the problem. “The urgency of the rare-earths situation is just now dawning on the United States and Europe,” said Naoki Kobayashi, an official working in the minerals division of Japan’s trade ministry. “For Japan, this painful lesson came 15 years ago,” he said.

Until recently the attitude of the Western establishment was that there was no problem. All governments had to do was print money and tax the rich. The end of history had come and the rule based world order was here to stay.

They were asleep, like on Dec 7 1941.

The real achievement of MAGA was to articulate the realization that ‘something was wrong’. To hit the general quarters button. This sudden awakening will probably be its most lasting contribution. But as Japan notes: even when the lookouts on Titanic see the iceberg the ship takes a long time to turn. Will it be enough?

Trump signed a REE agreement with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at the end of October.

Hopefully, Trump saw the iceberg well enough in advance to fend off a collision.

The Europeans are another story.

They’re going to have to move a little faster if they want to beat Trump out of the starting blocks.

Beege ADDS: How ’bout some Rare Earth, y’all? In their element. To celebrate.

 

 

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