GOP Candidate Leads California Gov Race as Dem Party Throws Itself Off a Cliff [WATCH]

Republican policy analyst and commentator Steve Hilton is leading the latest poll in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, a development that suggests widespread voter dissatisfaction with the state’s Democratic leadership.

The Emerson College poll shows Hilton narrowly ahead of all major Democratic contenders, including former Representative Katie Porter.

His lead falls within the survey’s 3% margin of error, but the result marks a rare moment in which a Republican candidate tops a statewide poll in California.

CALIFORNIA POLL

2026 Gubernatorial Primary

Steve Hilton (R) 16%
Katie Porter (D) 15%
Chad Bianco (R) 11%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) 5%
Xavier Becerra (D) 5%
39% undecided

Oct. 20-21, n=900 LVs, MOE +/- 3.2%https://t.co/rags2icvBg pic.twitter.com/2tK4OqBcIP

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 24, 2025

Hilton, known for his work as a conservative commentator and his criticism of the state’s high taxes, cost of living, and public safety issues, has emerged as the early front-runner in a crowded field.

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The poll comes amid deep divisions within California’s Democratic Party and declining enthusiasm among voters after years of one-party rule.

The survey found that 57% of California voters support Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposal to alter congressional district maps, a move critics say would dismantle the state’s constitutionally mandated independent redistricting commission.

The governor’s plan would give the state legislature more power over how congressional lines are drawn — a change opponents argue could entrench Democratic control for decades.

While the poll reflects the state’s continued liberal tilt on many policy issues, it also reveals growing frustration with Democratic leadership.

Newsom’s approval rating stands at 48%, his highest mark in the past year, yet still below 50% amid concerns about homelessness, crime, and the state’s declining population.

Hilton’s lead comes as Democratic support fractures among several lesser-known candidates.

Porter, who represented Orange County in Congress until early 2025, is the only Democrat polling in double digits.

Her campaign, however, has struggled to recover from a recent controversy involving a heated exchange with a CBS interviewer, which drew widespread backlash.

Other Democrats included in the Emerson poll failed to gain significant traction.

Political analysts note that the weak early showing from the Democratic field could prompt additional candidates to enter the race.

Among those mentioned as potential contenders is Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), who has maintained a low national profile since being appointed to fill Kamala Harris’s former Senate seat in 2021.

Padilla’s potential candidacy is seen by some party strategists as an effort to consolidate Democratic voters behind a single, higher-profile figure capable of challenging Hilton’s momentum.

The poll’s findings also indicate that overall Democratic support still outweighs Republican support when all candidates are grouped by party affiliation, reflecting the state’s longstanding political demographics.

However, Hilton’s early lead highlights shifting attitudes among independents and moderate Democrats, particularly in regions outside the coastal metropolitan areas.

Emerson College surveyed a cross-section of registered voters across the state, with results showing that economic concerns remain a dominant factor in voter priorities.

Respondents cited housing affordability, taxes, and public safety as the most important issues ahead of the 2026 election.

Hilton, originally from the United Kingdom, previously served as an adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron before moving to the United States, where he became an American citizen.

He has since worked as a political analyst and commentator, focusing on state-level policy reforms and government accountability.

If Hilton maintains his position in the months ahead, it would mark one of the strongest showings by a Republican gubernatorial candidate in California in more than a decade.

The last Republican to serve as governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office in 2011.

The California governor’s race is scheduled for November 2026.