Hamas in Rafah: Hell No, We Won’t Go

So much for the ceasefire? Not quite, but Hamas remains determined to stretch it every way they can with as much Hamas Hokey Pokey as Western leaders will allow — and then to abandon peace altogether. 

At issue in this moment: members of the Al-Qassem Brigade holed up in Rafah. According to the terms of the cease-fire, these units are required to disarm to the Israelis and relinquish control of Gaza in Phase 2. Hamas declared that the Rafah units will not disarm or surrender to the Israelis, but might surrender to the Egyptians, in exchange for data on their tunnel infrastructure in the area:

Hamas fighters holed up in the Israeli-held Rafah area of Gaza will not surrender to Israel, the group’s armed wing said on Sunday, urging mediators to find a solution to a crisis that threatens the month-old ceasefire.

Sources close to mediation efforts told Reuters on Thursday that fighters could surrender their arms in exchange for passage to other areas of the enclave under a proposal aimed at resolving the stalemate.

Egyptian mediators have proposed that, in exchange for safe passage, fighters still in Rafah surrender their arms to Egypt and give details of tunnels there so they can be destroyed, said one of the sources, an Egyptian security official.

There’s only one problem with this “plan”: it violates the cease-fire agreement. Egypt is participating in the talks, but Egypt has no troops in Gaza. In fact, one of the problems with Gaza for the past 50 years is that Egypt would not take back Gaza and left Israel to deal with it. And for the last 50 years, Egypt’s security forces have basically looked the other way at Hamas’ massive arms trade coming through Rafah itself, which allowed twenty years of war against Israel that culminated in the October 7 massacres. 

Hamas is trying to bypass Phase 2 entirely with this dodge. They want to remain armed while the IDF withdraws in favor of the international force that comes later in the agreement to secure Gaza under a Palestinian “technocratic” caretaker government. If Hamas can manage that, it can co-opt the interim government and security forces and thereby maintain its grip on power.  

This demonstrates yet again the lack of good faith from Hamas and its allies in Doha and Cairo when negotiating this agreement. Hamas never planned to comply with its provisions, and their allies at the bargaining table used the process as a platform for renegotiations while holding Israel and the US to their commitments. Politico reports this morning that the White House has already begun souring on the agreement and is looking at next steps to deal with Hamas:

Some Trump administration officials are deeply concerned that the Gaza peace deal between Israel and Hamas could break down because of the difficulty implementing many of its core provisions, as private documents obtained by POLITICO and circulating among U.S. officials underscore the lack of a clear path forward.

The compendium of documents was presented last month during a two-day symposium for U.S. Central Command and members of the newly created Civilian Military Coordination Center, which was established in southern Israel as part of the peace agreement between Israel and Hamas that went into effect Oct. 10. …

The presentation surfaces a particular concern about whether a so-called International Stabilization Force — a multinational security initiative meant to keep the peace in Gaza — can really be deployed. One slide shows an arrow with a question mark on it linking the first and second phases of the U.S.-brokered peace plan, underscoring the uncertainty about its prospects.

The White House officially denies this, claiming that positive progress is being made and that “everyone” wants to be part of this peace process. At least literally speaking, that’s not even true among the principals, and the report reflects the situation much more realistically:

It notes that “Hamas [is] reasserting authority and filling the security vacuum through coercive enforcement, policing.” The Israel Defense Forces control 53 percent of Gaza, with 95 percent of Gaza’s population in the 47 percent Israel doesn’t control, according to one of the sections. It also says Hamas has redeployed 7,000 “security personnel” in these areas. Only 600 aid trucks a day are currently reaching the area and “major bottlenecks” remain to distribute the amount necessary.

A slide in another document that appears to be from the U.S. government and is called “Threats to Humanitarian and Security Operations in Hamas-Free Zones in Gaza,” argues “Hamas is buying time for eventual reassertion of control. Every delay works in their favor.” It says the militants will use tactics ranging from pushing propaganda to hiding behind proxy attacks to regain power, all while counting on international initiatives to “fade.”

Gee, who could have predicted this? Golly, anyone who (a) observed Hamas over the past two decades, and (b) the results of every international intervention in their long war to annihilate Israel. 

Hamas will never willingly disarm. Hamas will never willingly comply with any agreements it reaches that requires it to live in peace. Hamas exists for one mission — the destruction of Israel and the annihilation of Jews wherever it can reach them. The only way to disarm Hamas is to utterly defeat them, and every day they do not face overwhelming military force is a day that improves their political and military situation. It’s long past time to stop the Hamas Hokey Pokey and make terrorists in Gaza truly face the music. 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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