Does Hamas have Hezbollah Envy? Or do they suddenly realize that Iran has left them twisting in the wind by allowing Lebanon to enter into a cease-fire with Israel? Alternately, this could just amount to nothing more than some cheap propaganda.
But it’s undeniable that the IDF can now turn its entire attention to the war in Gaza, and Hamas may not want to deal with that consequence for long:
Hamas indicated Wednesday that it was ready for a truce in Gaza as its key ally Hezbollah appeared to lay down arms after a ceasefire with Israel went into place, effectively leaving the Gaza terror group fighting alone.
“We have informed mediators in Egypt, Qatar and Turkey that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners,” a senior Hamas official told the AFP news agency, at the same time accusing Israel of obstructing an agreement.
Benjamin Netanyahu sold Israelis on the cease-fire proposal in part by declaring a victory in breaking the “linkage” between Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah launched its war the day after the October 7 massacres and atrocities committed by Hamas, and the Houthis followed almost as quickly, as a means to present a “unified battlefield,” a key doctrine among Iranian proxy armies. The decision to allow Hezbollah to settle the war separately with Israel is perhaps the equivalent of Belgian and/or French capitulation in 1940, and Hamas is in far worse shape than the British military was at that time.
The question is just how much Hamas wants an exit from the war. Their spokesman claimed today that they had shown “high flexibility” in negotiations, but that Netanyahu had torpedoed agreements. Literally everyone else knows that Hamas has been negotiating in bad faith all along, making demands and changing them after agreements, and have demanded a full IDF withdrawal before even committing to exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Qatar even stopped mediating the talks and told Hamas’ billionaire leadership to find somewhere else to live. The Israelis are now demanding that any cessation starts with release of all hostages before any other considerations are given.
Will Hamas take that offer? Opinions are mixed in Israel:
Last week, senior Israeli defense officials said there were emerging signs that Hamas was now open to a deal that would not include a complete end to the war and total Israeli pullout, a demand that had torpedoed previous efforts to reach an agreement.
However, other Israeli officials disputed this assessment.
Opinions are mixed in Gaza, too:
Inside Gaza, some Palestinians expressed cautious hope that the Lebanon deal could be a precursor to ending the fighting in Gaza. However, others said they felt abandoned and fearful of the consequences as Israel returns its full attention to Gaza.
Yes, that is exactly what will happen, unless Hamas releases the hostages. Everyone knows it, including Hamas. So are they actually willing to act like they’ve lost the war in order to put an end to it?
Maybe:
“We are committed to cooperating with any effort to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, and we are interested in ending the aggression against our people,” the terror group said in a statement.
“We have informed mediators in Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners,” a Hamas official told AFP. …
Further on Tuesday, Walla reported that sources in the security establishment have indicated that a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, such that the terror organization would be bound to uphold its obligations, could bring about an advancement in the hostage deal negotiations.
According to the report, such a deal could include Israel maintaining control over the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza.
That would be the minimum security arrangement for Israel after October 7. They have to cut off the weapons and logistics pipeline that allowed Hamas to turn Gaza into a military fortress, and Egypt clearly can’t be trusted to do it in the future. The Israelis will also likely demand an IDF patrol zone inside the rest of the Gaza perimeter to ensure no more Hamas invasions. They will no longer tolerate missile and drone attacks during so-called cease-fires either.
The precursor to all of these arrangements, however, will be the surrender of hostages — and not at the 10:1 or even 3:1 ratio Hamas demanded in the past. The IDF will likely demand the hostages back as the consideration for a cessation of offensive operations in Gaza, or at least that’s how they should structure the proposal. Hamas is in no position any longer to demand anything from the Israelis, and Netanyahu needs to make hostaging a zero-value strategy from this point forward.
We’ll see how “serious” Hamas is in the next phase of negotiations. With Yahya Sinwar and his leadership cult dead, there may be some room for change in the terrorist army. But unless Israel demands it, it won’t emerge on its own.
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