Hardly Surprising: Ukraine Mineral Agreement Implies US Sovereignty Guarantee

National Security NeverTrumpers are either the stupidest people on Earth, or so deeply invested in an outdated model of of pursuing “national security” that they are willing to ignore or lie about obvious facts. 

It’s pretty clearly the latter, IMHO. Few of these people are actually stupid or even midwits. Most are pretty smart and knowledgeable. 

A charitable interpretation, which I suppose applies to some subset, is that they are set in their ways and can’t see how the landscape has changed. An uncharitable one is that they make a lot of money promoting one vision, so adapting to reality is too costly to allow. 

🇺🇸🇺🇦📜The U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement states that the U.S. would express its desire to keep Ukraine “free, sovereign and secure,” according to a draft obtained by Axios. @DavidLawler10 and I report for @axios https://t.co/YvjkK8mbfz

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) February 24, 2025

Axios reports something that I anticipated ever since the minerals deal was floated. Trump, being the negotiator, pushed for maximum benefit, outraging Europeans and pundits everywhere. He was accused of abandoning Ukraine, which seemed absurd to me. Opposing Ukraine’s desire to be in NATO and working to end the war is hardly “abandoning” Ukraine. It is common sense and moral. 

The U.S. and Ukraine are closing in on minerals agreement worth hundreds of billions of dollars under which the U.S. would express its desire to keep Ukraine “free, sovereign and secure,” according to a draft obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: The Trump administration sees the agreement as a way to get a return on U.S. investment in Ukraine, which has vast untapped mineral wealth. Ukrainian officials see the deal as a way to halt the deterioration of relations with the Trump administration and establish a longer-term partnership with the U.S.

• A Ukrainian official told Axios a deal is close and could be signed as soon as Monday. The official said the document Axios has reviewed is the most recent version, but could still be amended.
• Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna confirmed in an X post Monday that the sides were close to a deal, and said signing it would “showcase our commitment for decades to come.”

Driving the news: The draft agreement calls for the establishment of a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” that will be co-managed by the U.S. and Ukraine.

Key quote: “The Government of the United States of America intends to provide a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine,” the draft says.

• It adds that the fund will be designed “so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase development,” including in areas like mining and ports.
• But it also suggests the U.S. will recoup some of its expenditures related to “defending, reconstructing, and returning Ukraine” to its pre-war GDP.

This was obviously coming because a major US economic interest in Ukraine’s mineral production would mean that we have to make major efforts to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine.

The Ukraine mineral deal is groundbreaking and could reshape how America engages with the developed world.@VictoriaCoates pic.twitter.com/fFNlADMGdY

— Heritage Foundation (@Heritage) February 24, 2025

If we get massive amounts of our raw material from the Ukrainians, we wouldn’t just the country over to Russia, would we?

🚨Read the full draft of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement here 👇👇👇 https://t.co/BLAdGMZAqX pic.twitter.com/BrFcp3iYJD

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) February 24, 2025

As usual, people invested in the current order, either intellectually, through NGOs, or the military-industrial complex love the status quo and the endless war that it requires. It is their gravy train. 

Trump is abandoning Ukraine and threatening global peace, say his critics. He’s not. He’s negotiating an end to the war, & reducing the US role in Europe, which voters want. Elites are enraged because Trump’s new, post-globalist order takes from them the power they badly abused. pic.twitter.com/jYjYe8u467

— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) February 24, 2025

That is why they opposed it, and yet a huge chunk of our population–the elite adjacent–just go along because Trump is too crude and crass, and the elite knows how to dress with perfectly creased pants and speak with authoritative stentorian voices. 

If anything, it will be some people on the Right who are disappointed by this deal, although the mineral payments will soothe their anger.