How Gavin Newsom Is Leading Democrats Down A Path Of Destruction

California Governor Gavin Newsom may be leading Democrats down the road to ruin with his plans to counter Texas redistricting, opening the door for Republicans to draw their own more advantageous congressional maps around the country.

The new California House map — drawn up by the Democrat-led legislature — is specifically designed to seize five currently Republican districts and fortify shaky Democratic ones.

Newsom called for the mid-cycle redraw in political retaliation after the Republican-led Texas legislature successfully revised its own map to flip five Democratic seats to Republican control. (RELATED: Texas House Approves Redistricting Maps)

“We anticipate that these maps will completely neuter and neutralize what is happening in Texas,” Newsom told reporters Thursday after announcing a November special election where Californians will vote on the gerrymandered map.

By green-lighting the counter redistricting push, Newsom risks making it politically less damaging for both Republican and Democratic states to blur district lines nationwide in pursuit of electoral advantage.

Matt Whitlock, Republican strategist and host of the “10 Minute Drill” podcast, warned that advocating for more aggressive gerrymandering is a battle that Democrats are unlikely to win. (RELATED: LARRY ELDER: Gerrymandering: Obama Vs. Obama)

“This is not an arms race Democrats can win,” Whitlock told the Caller.

💣 It’s been called “the biggest political story you haven’t heard about”

As Democrats fight to get illegal immigrants counted in the census ahead of Congressional reapportionment, red states move to redraw their Congressional maps to deal with influx coming from blue states pic.twitter.com/t1S9oRbuzs

— 10 Minute Drill (@10minutedrill) July 29, 2025

“Democrats have already gerrymandered their states so much that further escalation here will primarily help Republicans,” Whitlock explained. “But it’s important for Democrats to remember that Gavin Newsom’s only priority is his own presidential ambitions, so he could not care less if he hurts Democrats in other states if it helps him build a national profile and raise small dollars.”

Under the new California map, Democrats would hold 48 of 52 House seats — leaving Republicans with just four, or only 8% of the delegation. By contrast, Texas’ proposed map would give Republicans 30 seats and Democrats eight, leaving Democrats with about 21% representation — which is still more than the 17% share Republicans currently hold in California.

Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics (RCP) senior elections analyst, also predicted that Republicans stand to benefit most from a nationwide redistricting effort.

“Democrats already went for broke. Illinois, Maryland, New York and Massachusetts are maximal Democratic gerrymanders,” Trende said on RCP’s podcast. “But there’s a ton of places for Republicans to escalate.”

Logan Dobson, vice president of Targeted Victory, acknowledged that Democrats tend to be more skilled than Republicans when it comes to redistricting, but similarly warned that a gerrymandering war has more upside for the GOP.

“The reality is that Democrats have few places to engage in retaliatory gerrymandering because deep blue states are already so gerrymandered,” Dobson told the Caller.

“The Governor of Massachusetts was talking about redistricting — Massachusetts already has zero Republican House members. Illinois Democrats already gave themselves 82% of the House seats with just 53% of the vote. Even California’s supposedly non-partisan districts are already tilted Democratic — Republicans got 39% of the House vote in the Golden State but just 17% of the seats,” he explained.

What Democrats can’t admit publicly is that they are already so much better at gerrymandering than Republicans that they have less juice to squeeze. Check out this little table I made based on 2024 House elections.

Blue states are master gerrymanderers. GOP can’t compete. https://t.co/eMxlHky5kL pic.twitter.com/sGgvn0TNEQ

— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) July 21, 2025

One state that stands to immediately benefit from Newsom lifting a symbolic moratorium on gerrymandering is Ohio.

This year, Ohio’s leaders are required by the state constitution to redraw the state’s 15 congressional district boundaries, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle over control of the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to a Dayton Daily News report.

In 2024 voters rejected a ballot measure to establish an independent citizens’ commission to handle redistricting.

The GOP’s control of the legislature gives them a significant advantage in the process, and Republicans are targeting Democratic-held districts, including those of Democrats Ohio Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes.

Chris Cillizza, host of “So What with Chris Cillizza,” noted both Ohio and Florida as places where Republicans could make Newsom feel the sting of his short-sightedness when it comes to retaliatory gerrymandering.

“This is not my unique insight. The simple fact is that there are more and bigger states controlled by Republicans which are considering re-redistricting,” Cillizza told the Caller. “Florida and Ohio alone would tilt the balance. New York is pondering reopening the lines but it won’t be possible until 2027.”

In a re-redistricting war, Republicans would win pic.twitter.com/PG9vuh3Lzv

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) August 16, 2025

“If we do see a full-fledged re-redistricting fight nationally — and I hope, for the sake of voters, we don’t — Republicans are better positioned to create more winnable seats than Democrats in the 2026 election,” he argued.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis expressed his support for President Donald Trump’s plans to create a new Census that excludes illegal aliens from being counted for purposes of congressional representation and floated plans to have his own mid-decade redistricting process.

“We are going to have to do a mid-decade redistricting,” DeSantis said at a news conference on Aug. 11. “Obviously you would have to redraw the lines. Even if they don’t do a new census, even if they don’t revise the current census, I do think that it is appropriate to be doing it.”

DeSantis believes the effort could net Republicans an additional three congressional seats.

The Census Bureau acknowledged in 2022 that it had undercounted populations in its 2020 Census —primarily in red states, with the exception of Illinois: Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. The Census overcounted populations in Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Utah.

Texas’s population was estimated to have been undercounted by more than half a million people, potentially costing them $25 billion in federal funding through 2030 and additional representation in Congress. Texas was projected to gain three new congressional seats after the 2020 count, but only ended up receiving two.

“Governor Newsom’s decision to override the commission and add Democratic seats underscores the hypocrisy of the left. Several blue states have zero Republican representation, which is not reflective of their electorates,” Republican Texas state Rep. Katrina Pierson said in a statement to the Caller. “In contrast, Texas’s map reflects its population and political diversity. Texas is also not the first state to conduct mid-decade redistricting under new laws — a necessary step given our rapid growth.”

The consequences of mid-decade redistricting in Texas and California could extend to Missouri, New York, Illinois, and Indiana, according to an NPR report.

Four Republican lawmakers filed an emergency petition Tuesday asking the California Supreme Court to block what they called Democrats’ “unconstitutional” attempt to rush through the redistricting process.

The court struck down the petition late Wednesday night, allowing the redistricting effort to proceed, according to a Guardian report.

But even if the California legislature passes a new map, it isn’t final, as the effort relies on stirring enough partisan loyalty to push voters against their usual instincts. The governor’s maneuvering has already drawn skepticism, making the redistricting push likely an uphill battle.

Unlike Texas, California Democrats must secure voter approval for new maps through a ballot initiative to implement a mid-cycle redistricting plan.

California voters approved the Voters FIRST Act in 2008, establishing the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC) to handle the drawing of new district lines, removing that authority from the state legislature and giving it to citizens.

Two years later, the 2010 Voters FIRST Act for Congress expanded the CRC’s role to include creating congressional districts.

In fact, polling found that 61% of California Democrats would oppose Newsom’s effort to eliminate the commission and give lawmakers more partisan control over the maps, according to a Politico report.