IAEA: Yeah, Trump Probably Took Out Fordow

Did the B-2 bomber strikes on Fordow accomplish its intended mission — to shut down the nuclear-weapons development site? Some wondered at just how much damage the strikes caused after the US released before-and-after aerial photos of the redoubt. Apart from six neatly spaced holes in the ground, very little surface disruption could be seen, causing some to question Donald Trump’s claim to have eliminated Fordow’s capabilities.

Not so fast, Rafael Grossi testified today. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency delivered an assessment of the situation in Vienna, and it should remind everyone of two salient points. First, the GBU-57 bunker busters are designed to create underground damage, not surface destruction. And second, just the proximity to those blasts likely destroyed the enrichment cascades that were the primary targets of the US attack:

This all comes with a caveat, of course, which is that no one has inspected the facility yet. That’s because no one can access it at the moment, thanks to the collapse of Iran’s air defenses and the efforts by the Israeli Air Force to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. In fact, the Israelis want to make sure that the Iranians don’t attempt to restore Fordow, launching new attacks on the site this morning:

Israel hit Iranian government targets in Tehran on Monday in a series of strikes that followed a salvo of missiles and drones fired by Iran at Israel in the wake of the Trump administration’s massive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites the day before.

The Israeli military also confirmed it struck roads around Iran’s Fordo enrichment facility to obstruct access to the site. The underground site was one of those hit in Sunday’s attack by the United States on three nuclear facilities. The Israeli military did not elaborate.

Does this mean that the Israelis have less confidence in the claim that Fordow is “gone” than they have let on? Likely not. Iran has stored a large amount of enriched uranium at Fordow, not to mention other materiel that they wanted to keep safe from potential air attacks, perhaps missiles or critical military parts and provisions. The Iranian regime may be hoping that the cascades are at least salvageable, but it will certainly need to access other parts of the facility too, assuming that it remains accessible. That’s why the Israelis want to make sure it isn’t, while hoping that the bunker-busters did a lot more than just vibration damage. 

That’s not the only target for the IDF today. Israel has begun targeting key regime facilities in a bid to destabilize the mullahs, including an attempt to foster a prison break at Iran’s most notorious torture site:

Loud explosions rocked the Iranian capital, where Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military hit “regime targets” with “unprecedented force”, adding to speculation that Israel may seek to topple Iran’s clerical leadership.

The targets included Evin prison, which Katz said “holds political prisoners and regime opponents”, as well as command centres of the domestic Basij militia and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Israeli military said in a statement that the targets belong to Iranian forces “responsible… for defending the homeland security, suppressing threats, and maintaining the regime’s stability”.

I wrote earlier today that the Israelis would soon start targeting the Basij and IRGC domestic-suppression assets. Going after Evin Prison is a huge signal to the Iranian people that their time has arrived to take action. Trump and his team may be sending confusing signals on regime change in Tehran, but the Israelis have been crystal clear about its necessity. As long as the mullahs remain in power, Iran will be an existential threat to Israel and the entire region. Taking out Fordow and the nuclear program makes everyone safer — including Americans — but the mullahs still have other tentacles, and it won’t take long to rebuild some of them, even after this humiliating debunking of their claims to divine authority.