Imam On The Run: Khamenei Hides While Humiliations Expand

He can run, but Ali Khamenei can’t hide forever — from the Israelis, certainly. But Iran’s ‘supreme leader’ may have more to fear from the remnants of his own regime.

In the past 24 hours, Israel has reportedly stepped up efforts to take Khamenei off the board, euphemistically or otherwise. Strikes in an area of Tehran known to be residences of regime officials began yesterday, with the Israelis claiming that they killed one “high-ranking official.” Other reports claim that Khamenei has entered bunkers near Tehran with his family, possibly moving between multiple locations to keep ahead of the IDF.

That creates complications for a regime based on claims of divine authority, too:

Amid Israel continues to target Iran’s ruling elite, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly gone into hiding north of the capital of Tehran. Israel has not ruled out assassinating Khamenei though reports hint that US President Donald Trump had stopped Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from targetting the Supreme Leader. 

Khamenei is currently holed up in an underground bunker in Lavizan, a region northeast of Tehran. He reportedly moved underground with his family, including son Mojtaba Khamenei, as soon as the attacks began on early Friday,  Iran International quoted unnamed sources.

This isn’t the first time that the Supreme Leader is leaving his grand residence in Tehran. He was shifted to a bunker during the previous conflicts with Israel too. Though Mojtaba was by his side then, his other sons, Masoud and Mostafa, were not with him. This time, however, his entire family is with him.

That’s not the only difference this time, however. In previous exchanges, Khamenei may have isolated himself in the bunker, but only physically. (Worth noting: That doesn’t show a lot of faith in Khamenei’s claim to divine mission. You can bet that Iranians noted that at the time as well.) The ‘supreme leader’ had plenty of connections to the regime through his top advisor Ali Shamkhani and the cadre of top IRGC and intelligence figures, all of whom no doubt coordinated operations in those times with Khamenei.  Plus, Khamenei had his sons out in the mix, ensuring Khamenei’s authority remained undiminished.

Now, however, all of that cadre, including Shamkhani, are dead. Israel is now picking off the second- and third-string leadership in military and intelligence affairs. They killed four high-ranking intel officials yesterday, including the IRGC’s intelligence chief and his deputy, too:

The Israel Air Force assassinated four senior Iranian intelligence officials, including the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence organization, on Sunday, the IDF announced on Monday. 

Fighter jets struck senior officials in a building in Tehran, the military said.

The strike killed the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence organization and his deputy, as well as the head of the Quds Force’s intelligence branch and his deputy. 

These senior officials played a central role in assessing the situation in Iran and planning terrorist actions against Israel, the West, and regional countries, the military claimed.

In less than four days, the IDF has effectively severed Khamenei from his own regime, even if the ayatollah is still upright and breathing. All of his usual contacts are gone, and Khamenei’s sons are hiding in the bunker with him. Undoubtedly, the IRGC is still maintaining some comms with Khamenei and taking orders from him, but the reliability of that command structure is likely fragile and already breaking down by the absence of the ‘supreme leader’ at the moment of real crisis. 

It won’t take much for more junior officers to start questioning Khamenei’s divine ordination, or his value in an organization as FUBARed as this regime’s defenses are. The utter humiliation of Israeli jets conducting daytime sorties over the capital underscores both of those realities for Iranians on the street, and the lack of information getting out to the subjects of this tyrannical regime will only underscore the vacuum at the top:

As deadly Israeli strikes rain down on Iran, these are among the questions desperate and confused Iranians are asking as they search for guidance. Amid swirling rumors and a dearth of official information, many Iranians have started relying on one another to share tips and safety information.

“My biggest concern is nothing other than radioactive leaks and the bombing of areas that have nuclear facilities. I haven’t personally received any official guidance,” Ilya, 28, from the city of Karaj, near Tehran, said via text. Ilya asked to be identified only by his first name for security reasons.

The surprise attacks on Iran, which began on Friday, have highlighted the country’s apparent lack of preparedness for war — including its paucity of shelters, bunkers or functioning air-raid sirens. Without much clear direction from the government, Iranian musicians, artists, chefs and influencers have been sharing infographics on social media with titles including “What You Should Do if You’re in the Metro During an Airstrike” or “How to Speak to Children in War Times.”

Several people in Iran whom The New York Times messaged and spoke with said they were unsure whether to go to work or whether students should go to school — a fraught dilemma at the height of final exam season.

In Western countries, this kind of devolved communal response may seem unremarkable. In authoritarian regimes, however, that impulse gets suppressed, often brutally. Everything goes through the police state and/or the commissars, imams, etc. People are not allowed to think and act for themselves. When the regime stops responding, that also opens a vacuum that creates danger for the authoritarians in charge — especially when the inadequacy and incompetence of the regime gets exposed. 

Right now, Iranians are seeing inadequacy and incompetence in spades … and no leader in charge to be seen. 

Nor is that Khamenei’s only problem. We use the phrase “bunker mentality” to describe overly defensive attitudes, but it means something much different in this scenario. Khamenei’s isolation goes in both directions — no one is seeing him exercise authority, and he’s not able to test the information he’s being given. When Hitler was in the last days of his evil, wretched life, he was issuing orders for military units that no longer existed or had run off in the final throes of the war. Khamenei runs the same risk of losing touch with the reality of the situation around him, especially if he’s surrounded himself with the ultimate yes-men, such as his sons. It won’t take long in this highly kinetic situation for Khamenei to lose the thread on assets and strategic capabilities; he might already be in that situation, given all of the changes that have taken place since Thursday. 

Put simply, this is a doom loop for the regime. Even if Khamenei came out of the bunker and survived that, he’d have a tough time holding things together. The longer he remains in his spider hole, the more inevitable regime collapse becomes. It might come as soon as this week, or maybe it will take several weeks, but it’s coming now unless Khamenei capitulates and accepts terms from Israel and the US — soon.