Recent data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) shows a significant shift among immigrant voters toward the Republican Party on the issue of immigration, as reported by Fox News.
A comparison of pre- and post-election surveys from the 2020 and 2024 election cycles reveals a 49-point swing in favor of the GOP.
In 2020, voters born outside the United States favored Democrats over Republicans on immigration by a margin of 58% to 24%, according to ANES, a long-established election research program.
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However, in 2024, that margin flipped considerably. Forty-five percent of foreign-born voters who cast ballots in the 2024 election said the Republican Party would do a better job of handling immigration. Only 30% named the Democratic Party.
The data suggests that immigrants, once reliably Democratic on immigration, are now increasingly supporting the GOP’s policies.
Daron Shaw, a member of the Fox News Decision Team and a Republican partner in the Fox News polling operation, said the shift is largely because immigrant voters “started so pro-Democrat. There’s more room for them to shift.”
Shaw, who is also a political science professor and department chair at the University of Texas, added that President Donald Trump’s influence over the issue has been pivotal in reshaping public opinion.
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“Before Trump came on the scene, immigration and border security were generally seen as separate issues,” Shaw explained. “Since Trump has come on the scene, those issues have really melded to the Republican advantage.”
The 2024 presidential election underscored the importance of immigration and border enforcement as key issues for voters. Trump made both topics central to his campaign and returned to the White House following his electoral victory last November.
Republicans also regained control of the Senate and maintained a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
The GOP’s political gains were not limited to immigrant voters. According to the same election data, Republicans made notable inroads among Hispanic, Black, and younger voters—demographics long viewed as part of the Democratic Party’s base.
Shaw noted that the GOP’s focus on border security has resonated beyond native-born Americans.
“You’re seeing a movement towards the Republican Party on immigration because it’s been largely focused on border security. That’s true with non-immigrant populations as well as immigrant populations,” he said.
The political shift among immigrant voters comes at a time of heightened national attention on immigration enforcement.
In response to days of violent protests in Los Angeles—sparked by federal immigration raids carried out under the Trump administration—President Trump deployed National Guard troops and, for the first time in decades, mobilized U.S. Marines to restore order in the city.
Trump’s move to deploy military forces drew both condemnation and support, but it underscored his administration’s firm stance on immigration law enforcement. The protests and resulting federal response have continued to dominate national headlines.
The ANES, which has been conducting election surveys since 1952, is considered one of the most credible and long-running sources of voter data in the U.S.
Its findings offer insight into the evolving priorities of the electorate and reflect the changing political landscape on immigration, particularly among immigrant voters themselves.
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