Iran Blinked

The Iranian strike on the US base in Qatar wasn’t an escalation; it was an attempt to de-escalate the situation, and with any luck, it will accomplish just that. 

Beege wrote an excellent piece on the news as it was breaking, and I would like to expand on it a bit. 

I was doing a radio interview as the attack was happening, and I got the inevitable question: was this attack an escalation, or a strike to save face for Iran?

At the time, I couldn’t answer the question because there was insufficient data, and I have yet to hone my mind-reading skills. I said it was more likely than not a face-saving gesture, intended to reassure the regime’s supporters within Iran that the Islamic regime was not toothless and that the Great Satan could be struck and hurt. I suspected that the strike was designed to do little to no damage–it was symbolism, not substance. 

The audience was not America or the West, but Iranian. That guess turned out to be right, to my dual delight. It is always nice to be right, and since this attack was purely symbolic, nothing and nobody was hurt. Best of both worlds. 

The New York Times reports:

“Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran…

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) June 23, 2025

The New York Times reports: 

“Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.” 

Iran is telling its citizens that it “pulverized” the base, but it doesn’t quite seem that way. Qatar says it intercepted the missiles, and frankly the missiles were not sent to do damage anyway. 

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council claims in a statement, that the IRGC and Army “pulverized” the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response this weekend’s strikes against nuclear sites in Iran. It further says the number of missiles matched the number of U.S. bombs used,…

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 23, 2025

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council claims in a statement, that the IRGC and Army “pulverized” the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response this weekend’s strikes against nuclear sites in Iran. It further says the number of missiles matched the number of U.S. bombs used, and claims the strike avoided civilian areas, with the wording suggesting that this will be the only military action by Iran against the United States.

According to Qatar, all the missiles were intercepted, and the attack was coordinated with the country to ensure that there would be no casualties. It made for a spectacular light show, and the show was all that it was. 

Iran on Monday launched a military attack on an American base in Qatar, the largest American military installation in the Middle East, in retaliation for U.S. strikes on three critical nuclear sites.

Qatar said that its air defenses had intercepted the missiles and condemned the Iranian attack. The Defense Department said there were no reports of U.S. casualties at the base, Al Udeid.

🚨 HAPPENING NOW: Air defenses seen activated over Doha, Qatar, after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at it, likely targeting the al-Udeid base used by U.S. forces pic.twitter.com/exG9nVGR1d

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 23, 2025

None of this should be a surprise, although by no means was it certain that Iran would hold back. The regime has probably calculated that it can withstand Israel’s attacks without falling–that regime change imposed from the air, at least when the attacks come from Israel, is not possible. 

Iran may be being optimistic about that, but even if not, the end would come much, much quicker if the US started punishing them for a successful strike. 

pic.twitter.com/JPGUDlnYD4

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) June 23, 2025

Hence, provoking a massive retaliation from the United States was a bad bet. The US has demonstrated that its military might is unmatched, that if it wanted to, it could take out Khamenei, and Iran’s allies have made it clear that they have no appetite for war with the United States on Iran’s behalf. 

The market seems to know this Iranian “strike” in Qatar is a face saving move and is likely the end of it pic.twitter.com/z76yqyftA6

— Phil Holloway ✈️ (@PhilHollowayEsq) June 23, 2025

China needs Iranian oil, and definitely doesn’t want to see the cost of its oil imports quadrupling. As soon as Iran announced its intentions to close the Strait of Hormuz, China told them to back off. Under those conditions, Iran had the choice to commit regime suicide or back off. 

If one is inclined to look at this like Kabuki theater, arranged in advance, this claim by Qatar relieves pressure on Trump to retaliate. https://t.co/iJaHI8vZOM

— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) June 23, 2025

Iran has allowed Trump to declare victory, while saving face–they hope–at home. It really was the only rational choice, and I still believe that the top echelon of Iran’s government remains rational within its limits. They prefer gray zone wars to ones that require suicide. 

JUST IN: President Trump thanks Iran for giving him a heads up before they fired ballistic missiles toward the U.S. base in Qatar, says no Americans were harmed.

The president encouraged both Iran and Israel to “proceed to peace and harmony.”

“Thank you for your attention to… pic.twitter.com/AHFOzPWBQq

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 23, 2025

Suicide vests are for the young and reckless, not top generals. They may say they love death, and some religious zealots do. But Iran is not run by the Taliban. They are not medievalists. They are ugly, misogynistic zealots, but few are suicidal. They want the power, and a collapsed regime can’t deliver “Death to Israel.”

I have no love for the Iranian regime, and plenty of love for America and Israel. I believe Iran is a mortal threat to Israel, but I don’t buy the propaganda that Iranian leaders love death so much that they are willing to get bombed out of existence to strike a blow against the Jews. They are willing to sacrifice a lot of their people, but not to fall on their swords. 

They chose wrong, of course, and a lot of them are doing so unwillingly. But Iran’s choice to forego a devastating attack on US interests shows that they are rational enough to not want to take on the Great Satan, at least when Trump is in charge. 

Trump made a bet when he attacked Fordow: that Iran would respond relatively intelligently. He saw the interaction as a form of a deal–not a good deal for Iran, but still a deal between rational actors. It’s possible he expected Iran to capitulate before the strike–hard to say–but he was clearly pretty certain they would after. 

It turned out to be a good bet.