Iran News Services: Mojtaba As Nepo Babytollah? Not So Fast.

Yesterday morning, the Israelis hit the headquarters of Iran’s Assembly of Experts in Qom, destroying the building while its 88 mullahs met – somewhere – to choose the next ‘supreme leader.’ Hours later, Iran’s news services announced that the council had selected Mojtaba Khamenei as his father’s successor, despite his absence from public view since Ali Khamenei’s death in the opening minute of the war. No one has seen any signs of the Assembly of Experts, either.

Today, however, Iranian news services have retreated from those claims. Mojtaba may not yet be the Nepo Babytollah, if at all:

Iran’s Shia clerics don’t have an exact timeline for the selection of the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader, according to a member of the body of religious experts that will make the appointment, who was quoted by Iranian state news agency IRNA.

Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini said the Assembly of Experts would convene “as soon as possible” and announce its final decision, but the cleric added that the matter requires “an examination of overall conditions and further consultations.”

The new leader will be announced at the earliest opportunity, said another member of the assembly, Seyyed Ahmad Khatami, who added that no problem had arisen regarding the leadership, according to government-linked news agency ISNA.

Wait … what? Yesterday, Iran’s official mouthpieces reported that the selection process hadn’t just started, but that it had already been completed. The story floated after the destruction of the mullah council’s HQ in Qom was that the council had not been in that location, and only clerks were on hand to count the ballots. A decision had already been made, however – or at least that was the story as of yesterday. 

Today, it looks like the IRGC may have cooked the story in an attempt to seize control of the theocratic levers of power from the Assembly of Experts. That apparently began as soon as the rubble stopped bouncing at the Ayatollah Palace:

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is insisting on the swift appointment of the next leader of the Islamic Republic after Ali Khamenei’s death, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International.

According to the sources speaking on condition of anonymity, the remaining IRGC command structure is seeking to finalize the decision within the coming hours, specifically by dawn on Sunday, March 1.

The sources said with airstrikes ongoing, it is not feasible to convene a session of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader. As a result, the IRGC is pushing for the appointment of the next leader to take place outside the legally prescribed procedures.

That didn’t happen, and the IRGC may not have been happy about that. According to the New York Times, the Assembly of Experts met in a virtual session, wisely, on Tuesday. However, despite the claims made later, the council did not reach a decision, although the NYT reports that they were leaning in Mojtaba’s direction:

The senior clerics responsible for selecting Iran’s next supreme leader met on Tuesday to deliberate, and the son of the slain former leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emerged as the clear front-runner, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the deliberations.

The officials said that the clerics were considering announcing that the son, Mojtaba Khamenei, would be his father’s successor as early as Wednesday morning but that some had expressed reservations, fearing that it could expose him as a target for the United States and Israel. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations.

If the IRGC wants Mojtaba, and the council is leaning in that direction – according to the news agency controlled by the IRGC – what’s the issue? It can’t just be that Mojtaba will become a target for the US and Israel, because that will be true for anyone named Supreme Leader. Or Khamenei, for that matter. All of these people, the Assembly included, have targets on their backs. 

Picking Mojtaba raises three other problems. First off, Mojataba is not a serious religious cleric, according to practically every assessment available. He’s a typical heir apparent, more interested in power than in theology, which is why Mojtaba has cleaved so closely to the IRGC. Next, appointing anyone named Khamenei would make the next Supreme Leader a target not just for the US and Israel, but also for the Iranian populace that despised Ali Khamenei:

Supporters of the government would see him as a continuation of a ruler whom they view as martyred and will back him swiftly, Mr. Rahmati said. But government opponents, too, will see him as a continuation of the regime, which in recent months has killed at least 7,000, a number that may well grow, rights groups say.

However, a third problem may moot the other two. As NBC News points out this morning, no one’s seen Mojtaba in a vertical and respiratory status since his father’s death. Supposedly, he’s mourning his father and working remotely, or something:

The New York Times report comes after semiofficial Iranian news agency Mehr news reported that Khamenei’s son was alive and well after the deadly strikes launched by the U.S. and Israel that killed his father and other family members, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s wife.

Mehr reported yesterday that Mojtaba Khamenei was “overseeing matters related to the martyrs of the family, managing affairs, and providing consultation and review on important national issues.”

At just the moment when his father’s regime needs to demonstrate continuity and survival, Mojtaba decides to … go on family leave? Maybe Mojtaba is pining for the fjords after a prolonged squawk, too. 

The idea that Mojtaba is “managing affairs” without being seen at all certainly would be convenient for the IRGC, which has pushed for his immediate appointment since the moment that Ali Khamenei gave up the ghost. The announcement yesterday of his selection would allow the IRGC hardliners to run Iran without interference from the mullahs in Mojtaba’s name, whether Mojtaba was alive or not. The sudden confusion around Mojtaba’s appointment may be pushback from the mullahs in the Assembly of Experts, recognizing a coup from the more fanatical military factions of the regime. If that’s the case, then we may see a reaction from the regular Iranian army and local police forces, especially while the US and Israel intensify attacks on IRGC and Basij installations and make them more vulnerable to a regime food fight. 

We’ll see how long it takes for the Nepo Babytollah to emerge. If it starts taking as long as the Twelfth Imam, we’ll have our answer, and so will the Iranian people. 

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