Following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, Iran faces the renewed challenge of contending with a U.S. leader it has reportedly targeted for assassination.
Tehran, which had allegedly interfered in the U.S. election to support Kamala Harris, now faces a significant shift as it braces for Trump’s return to the White House.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s military force, issued a direct threat to Trump via Telegram on Wednesday, posting a video that ended with a graphic image of Trump covered in blood and the words, “We will finish the job.”
#Iranian regime and #IRGCterroists can’t wait even one day-#IRGC Telegram channel Bisimchi threatened to kill @realDonaldTrump and revenge the assassination of Soleimani !! pic.twitter.com/CiIvv6X24x
— BenSabti (@BeniSabti) November 6, 2024
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The threat highlights Iran’s longstanding demand for retaliation after Trump ordered the 2019 killing of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani, a move that has fueled tensions between Washington and Tehran.
“The Islamic Republic has to be terrified that the presidential candidate that they tried to kill has just won the election,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Fox News Digital.
He emphasized that Iran could face severe economic consequences with the potential reimplementation of Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions policy, which had previously crippled Iran’s economy.
In response to Trump’s win, Iran’s currency, the rial, hit an all-time low on Wednesday, trading at 703,000 rials to the dollar in Tehran before a slight recovery to 696,150 rials to $1.
This plunge reflects Iran’s economic struggles amid escalating tensions.
For context, when the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was signed, the rial traded at 32,000 to $1; by July of this year, under Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, it had devalued to 584,000 to $1.
Despite these challenges, Iran has maintained near-record levels of oil exports, estimated at around 1.7 million barrels per day, partially due to reduced enforcement of U.S. sanctions under Joe Biden.
Additionally, experts warn that Iran is only weeks away from producing enough material for a nuclear weapon. “Tehran knows maximum pressure is set to return,” Taleblu added, warning that Iran’s threats of nuclear escalation should be taken seriously as it faces renewed pressure.
During Trump’s previous administration, the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in 2018 and implemented harsh sanctions.
These measures included restrictions on U.S. businesses from trading with Iran and sanctions on international entities dealing with the regime, cutting off access to the dollar.
Joe Biden, however, had relaxed enforcement in hopes of reopening negotiations to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities and avoid spikes in global oil prices.
Recently, Biden’s administration granted a State Department sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to continue buying energy from Iran, a move criticized by opponents who argue it provides Tehran with additional funds.
White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby insisted that these funds are allocated strictly for humanitarian needs, stating that none of the funds go to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or the IRGC.
With Trump’s return on the horizon, Iran may reconsider its approach to escalating regional conflicts, particularly with Israel.
Following recent strikes by Tehran on Tel Aviv, Israel retaliated with attacks on Iranian military sites. Now, Supreme Leader Khamenei has vowed countermeasures.
Sean McFate, an adjunct professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, observed that “Trump’s victory will give Iran pause as it considers striking back at Israel in their tit for tat.” McFate noted that Trump’s strong support for Israel in his previous term, including his withdrawal from the JCPOA and backing of Jewish-Arab normalization efforts, could spell further complications for Iran.
However, some analysts suggest Trump’s “America First” stance might mean less support for Israel than Biden’s administration provided.
Chuck Freilich, former deputy national security adviser in Israel, pointed out that “there’s the unpredictability factor with Trump.” Freilich expressed doubts that Trump would support deployments similar to Biden’s, who had sent aircraft carriers near Israel four times in the past year. “I think he will be maybe even less inclined to use military force than Biden would have been,” Freilich said.
Officially, Iran dismissed suggestions that Trump’s presidency would significantly impact the regime. “The U.S. elections are not really our business. Our policies are steady and don’t change based on individuals,” Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told the semi-official Tasnim news agency. “We made the necessary predictions before, and there will not be change in people’s livelihoods.”
As Iran contemplates its next moves, Trump’s win poses potential challenges for Tehran’s regional ambitions and its economic stability, especially with the anticipated return of the U.S.’s “maximum pressure” strategy.
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