Iran’s FM to Trump: Call Me, Maybe?

Has the regime in Tehran gotten the message from Donald Trump? It’s tough to miss when it gets delivered by a “massive armada” of US Navy warships. 

Trump has alternately drawn red lines and offered talks to reach a deal with Iran for the last few weeks, after the IRGC and Basij forces began massacring demonstrators in the streets of cities throughout the country. At the same time, Trump and Pete Hegseth have moved assets in place to exercise any number of military options if talks fail or the regime refuses to retreat on its nuclear-weapons ambitions and its violent repression. This week, Trump insisted that both had to be on the table, and Iran scoffed.

Until it didn’t, a point reached – coincidentally or not – with the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier task force. According to Axios, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suddenly wants to hold talks with the US, albeit on somewhat ambiguous terms:

Why it matters: President Trump has ordered a massive U.S. military buildup in the Gulf ahead of a possible strike against Iran. White House officials say Trump hasn’t made a final decision and is still willing to explore a diplomatic solution.

• “I have had and I am planning on it,” Trump told reporters on Thursday evening when asked if he is talking to the Iranians. “I told them: Number one no nuclear and number two stop killing protesters.”

Driving the news: Araghchi’s new remarks came at a press conference with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara. In recent days, Turkey has been the leading mediator trying to facilitate direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

Are the mullahs sincere about avoiding a conflict, or are they just playing for time? US officials told Axios that it looks much more like the latter:

At the moment, there are no serious direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. officials say Tehran doesn’t seem interested in a deal based on the U.S. terms.

Yesterday, the New York Times wondered why Trump has focused his demands on the nuclear-weapons program. If those facilities were destroyed in June, why worry about it? They then go on to answer their own question much farther into their report:

The enriched uranium buried at the three sites struck in June — the fuel that is closest to being turned into bomb-grade material — remains in place, apparently buried and untouched. Without access to that stockpile, most of which is in a facility in Isfahan, making even a few crude weapons would be extremely difficult.

The Iranians are working at their nuclear sites, trying to dig deeper, beyond the reach of the United States’ most powerful conventional bombs. But Western intelligence agencies have not picked up indications that high-level enrichment is underway to make bomb-grade material, or other moves to produce an actual warhead, people familiar with the intelligence said.

Iran has not built new nuclear sites, according to several people briefed on U.S. intelligence assessments. Iranian activity has, however, been detected at two still-incomplete nuclear sites that were known to the United States, Israel and international inspectors for several years but not struck in last year’s war. One is near Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment site, which both Israel and the United States struck. Another is near Isfahan.

The strikes in June did not entirely destroy the mullah’s ambitions to deploy nuclear weapons. The strikes did set Iran back several years in those ambitions, but if the IRGC can dig some of the enriched uranium out, they can still put together “dirty bombs” on a shorter timeline (a key worry all along). The work to salvage the nuclear-weapons products taking place now makes it very clear that the Iranians still plan to pursue nuclear weapons, and plan to do so in ways that will be even more difficult to stop later. 

The Iranians are playing for time, just like they have for the last 25 years or more in pursuit of nuclear weapons. Only nuclear weapons can shield them from foreign intervention, the mullahs know, especially after seeing the incompetent and impotent performance of their conventional and ballistic forces during the Twelve Day War. Araghchi’s outreach is another attempt to play for time in the short run, prompted by an American administration with much more inclination to put an end to their regime than they have faced in 47 years. Ali Khamenei wants to just survive for another three years and hope Americans elect a more pliable and foolish leader like Barack Obama or Joe Biden, and regain the ability to exert hegemony over the region and over the captive Iranian people. 

Will Trump bite on the opportunity for talks? Maybe, but the chess pieces won’t move in the meantime. 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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