Iran’s Future Won’t Be Crowned — It Will Be Won

We are pleased to present this guest essay from Christopher Barron, a conservative strategist and the President of Right Turn Strategies. We present guest essays on occasion to further debate and discourse on important topics. As always, the opinions expressed by the guest author do not necessarily represent those of Hot Air or Townhall Media.  

Iran’s Future Won’t Be Crowned—It Will Be Won

By Christopher R Barron

Geopolitical challenges are often complex, but sometimes an old allegory can make them easier to understand.

Every American child grows up with the story of the tortoise and the hare, and its moral that “slow and steady wins the race.” That lesson may say a great deal about the future leadership of Iran, a country whose current rulers are now at war with the United States.

Strange? Not really. Allow me to explain.

Regime change in Iran appears increasingly inevitable. Weeks of bombardment by the United States and Israel have depleted the country’s military resources and left the clerical regime struggling to defend itself. But the prospect of change was already evident before the war began, when authorities brutally suppressed a nationwide uprising at the start of this year, killing thousands in a desperate attempt to maintain their grip on power.

At the height of that uprising and, in its aftermath, Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last Shah, whose notoriety stems from his father’s one-party dictatorship, overthrown in 1979, sought to present himself as the natural leader of a post-regime Iran. A small but wealthy circle of supporters amplified his claims, financing coordinated social media campaigns and even doctoring footage to suggest that protesters were chanting “long live the Shah” and predicting his return. They worked to create the impression that his leadership was inevitable. Here comes the hare.

In reality, participants in the January uprising echoed the same slogans heard in earlier protests dating back to 2018. These chants rejected not only the clerical regime but also the monarchy it replaced.

Slogans such as “death to the dictator, whether Shah or Supreme Leader” reflect the influence of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK/PMOI), a resistance movement that has maintained a nationwide network of “Resistance Units” for over a decade. This network has been widely credited with playing a key role in each of the past four uprisings. The persistence and popularity of these slogans underscore years of groundwork to build consensus for regime change. Welcome the tortoise.

The MEK and the broad coalition that it belongs to, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), have long advanced a roadmap for Iran’s future. The ten-point plan articulated by Maryam Rajavi, chosen to be the President for the transitional period, commits to free elections, universal human rights, and the separation of religion and stat, principles that resonate across Iran’s diverse society. The breadth of recent uprisings, spanning regions and demographics, demonstrates the growing appeal of this vision and the potential for a broad-based movement to bring about democratic change.

By contrast, Reza Pahlavi and his supporters have hastily offered a platform that puts all the power in the hands of one person, i.e. the new king. Despite their efforts to insert themselves into discussions of Iran’s future, they have shown little evidence of meaningful support inside the country.

Meanwhile, the MEK and its Resistance Units have continued the arduous work of advancing regime change, often at great personal risk. They have paid in blood and sacrifice, steadily building momentum over time.

Pahlavi, by comparison, has invested little of substance in this struggle, living a luxurious life   while attempting to position himself as its beneficiary. His media appearances and coordinated online campaigns amount to little more than a sprint—an initial burst of visibility without sustained effort. He appears to assume that foreign powers will ultimately install him as Iran’s next ruler.

We all do remember the Hare. Right?

Treating Pahlavi as a viable candidate for Iran’s future leadership is akin to betting on the hare to defeat the tortoise, despite knowing how that story ends.

Conversely, dismissing the NCRI’s role is like overlooking the tortoise altogether—an even greater mistake. Unlike the fable, where the hare paused after taking an early lead, Pahlavi has been stationary from the outset and is only now attempting to catch up, while the PMOI moves steadily toward the finish line of a new, democratic Iran.

This progress is not abstract. It has been built through sustained organization of protests, dissemination of pro-democracy messaging, disruption of regime propaganda, and direct challenges to repressive institutions, with the loss of more than 100,000 activities in more than four decades. The Resistance Units have intensified their activities, increasing pressure on a regime already weakened by internal unrest and external conflict.

But regime change in Iran will not be decided abroad. It will be determined by the Iranian people, who have repeatedly rejected both monarchy and theocracy. Their message has been consistent across successive uprisings, and it is unlikely to change now.

When that change comes, the Iranian people will expect the international community to respect their choice.

The United States and its allies should not wait for that moment to act. They should make clear now that they stand with the Iranian people, not only against the current regime, but also against any attempt to impose alternative forms of authoritarian rule. Democratic nations should recognize the legitimacy of the NCRI’s provisional government based on Maryam Rajavi’s ten-point plan and align their policies with the principle that Iran’s future lies in the hands of its people, neither Shah nor Supreme Leader, but a government chosen freely through democratic means. It is wise to be on the side of “slow and steady” who wins the race.

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