Israel to Gazans: Return the Hostages — Or Else

Has Israel finally had enough of Hamas manipulation and war after nineteen years in Gaza and nineteen months of war? Their ultimatum today makes that case, assuming the Israeli government has the conviction to follow through on it.

Next week, Donald Trump will pay a visit to the Middle East, including Israel, presumably to work on expansion and strengthening of the Abraham Accords. If the hostages have not been returned to Israel by that time, the IDF will start seizing and occupying Gaza — permanently:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet voted to scale up the offensive against Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza to the point of seizing the entire enclave and holding its territories, an Israeli official said on Monday …

Already in control of around a third of Gaza’s territory, Israel resumed ground operations in March after the collapse of a U.S.-backed ceasefire that had halted fighting for two months. It has since imposed a total blockade of aid into the enclave.

Elkin said that rather than launching raids in specific areas and then leaving them as the military had done so far, the Israeli forces will now hold the territories they seize, until Hamas is defeated or agrees to disarm and leave Gaza.

No more Mr. Nice Guy, in other words. 

The Israeli cabinet voted unanimously to conduct ‘Operation Gideon’s Chariots’ to put an end to Hamas’ control and operations on Israel’s borders. That unanimity is itself surprising in a coalition cabinet, especially with the political pressure raised by hostage families and their allies. It’s also surprising in that Israel has tried to avoid any re-occupation of ‘Palestinian’ territories, and has refused to implement any forced relocation of the populations in Gaza and the West Bank.

Both of those positions have changed, at least rhetorically:

According to the official, “a central component of the plan is the extensive evacuation of the entire Gazan population from combat zones, including from northern Gaza, to areas in southern Gaza, while creating separation between them and Hamas terrorists, in order to allow the IDF operational freedom of action.”

“Unlike in the past, the IDF will remain in every area that is conquered, to prevent the return of terror, and will handle every cleared area according to the Rafah model, where all threats were leveled and it became part of the security zone,” he says, referring to an Israeli-held buffer zone.

The official says the “blockade” on humanitarian aid will continue, and “only later, after the beginning of operational activity and a broad evacuation of the population to the south, a humanitarian plan will be implemented.”

To the south, perhaps, but not fully south. The IDF will erect some sort of cordon sanitaire in and around Rafah, but the implication is that the Israelis will seize permanent control of the Philadelphi Corridor: 

The official says the IDF’s deployment prior to the start of the major operation “will provide a window of opportunity until the end of the US president’s visit to the region to carry out a hostage deal according to the ‘Witkoff framework.’”

“In such a case, Israel will seek to retain territory that has been cleared and added to the security zone… In any temporary or permanent arrangement, Israel will not evacuate the security zone around Gaza, which is intended to protect communities and prevent weapons smuggling to Hamas,” he says.

That has to be a reference to the Philadelphi Corridor, which is where most of the smuggling operations took place. One has to wonder what the Egyptians think of this plan. They may get angry that Israel is unilaterally changing that shared border, and will likely object strenuously …. in public. In private, they might be relieved to stop dealing with Hamas smuggling and constant conflict on their Sinai border. In fact, I’d be surprised if the Israelis have not already worked this out with Cairo through Trump and his team. 

Operation Gideon’s Chariots makes this war a truly existential question for the Gazans. For nineteen years, they stood by and cheered Hamas’ wars against Israel because they didn’t risk losing territory or their quasi-sovereignty. That is changing, or at least the risk of it changing is becoming real. The plan would be to essentially surround whatever Gazans remain in the urban areas, who will have to live under Israeli occupation in name or otherwise, while a large number get ejected out of the territory altogether. And this isn’t even the worst possible outcome; the Israelis could escalate this by seizing and/or destroying the urban centers where Hamas operates its command and control, a step that the IDF has not yet exercised.

The main question now will be whether the Israelis are serious. Hamas will likely consider this a bluff, but that’s a dangerous gamble and their populace may not want to roll the dice along with them. They are already getting very restive in Gaza, forcing Hamas to execute dissenters while hoarding aid to control the population. If Hamas calls their bluff, they may expect the West or Iran to force Israel into backing off, but those days are long gone and Hamas has very few resources left. They may not realize yet just how different this situation is, both after October 7 and after the election in the US. 

Hamas wanted a war. The Gazans cheered them on after October 7. They may be about to find out why starting wars is a bad choice, especially when committing atrocities in doing so.