Leaked Memo Exposes Kamala’s Campaign Nightmare In All 7 Key Swing States

On the eve of Election Day, Democrats are reportedly grappling with alarmingly low voter turnout numbers, particularly in critical battleground states where urban centers have historically been strongholds for the party.

Recent leaked data highlights a significant turnout gap that could jeopardize Kamala Harris’s chances, raising concerns among Democratic leaders as President Trump’s campaign shows momentum in early and absentee voting efforts.

A memo from Tim Saler, Chief Data Consultant for the Republican National Committee, outlines the issue facing Democrats: a substantial deficit in urban voter turnout across battleground states.

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According to Saler’s analysis, the turnout shortfall is not just a minor fluctuation; rather, it reflects a significant decline that may impact Harris’s campaign and potentially weaken Democratic performance overall.

The data, shared through various channels, points to a challenging landscape for Democrats who now face the urgent task of mobilizing urban voters in states like Pennsylvania, a historically crucial state in presidential elections.

BREAKING: New memo confirms that Democrats are facing a huge turnout issue in the battlegrounds.

PA: Urban turnout is down 381K votes, female turnout is down 450K votes.

WI: Urban down 100K, female down 238K. pic.twitter.com/azDBWGHSx4

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

Former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter voiced his concerns, warning Democrats that Harris would need a “600,000 ballot vote margin over Trump in Philadelphia on Election Day” to pull ahead in Pennsylvania.

Nutter’s statement underscores the intense pressure on the Harris campaign to engage urban voters in Philadelphia, a traditional Democratic base, and drive significant turnout to counter President Trump’s strong performance in early voting.

The memo also notes that President Trump’s campaign has been outpacing Democrats in absentee ballot returns and early voting numbers, suggesting robust Republican engagement heading into the final stretch.

This surge in early voting for Trump has heightened the pressure on Democrats to rally support, especially as urban voter participation has typically been a decisive factor in close elections.

The RNC’s leaked memo does not delve into specific causes behind the apparent drop in Democratic turnout in urban areas.

However, some political analysts speculate that changing dynamics in voter behavior and varying enthusiasm levels may be influencing these numbers.

Regardless of the reasons, Democrats now face a critical need to mobilize their urban base to prevent a potential voter deficit that could swing key battleground states.

The turnout issues have prompted Democratic operatives to ramp up last-minute efforts to engage urban voters.

Reports indicate that the party is investing additional resources in targeted get-out-the-vote campaigns, aiming to boost participation in cities that have historically provided strong support.

These efforts are being closely watched as Democrats attempt to close the gap and avoid a repeat of low turnout that could jeopardize Harris’s standing in the electoral count.

As both campaigns head into Election Day, the stakes are clear.

President Trump’s campaign appears to be capitalizing on strong Republican turnout while Democrats scramble to turn out enough urban voters to remain competitive.

With Harris’s path to victory potentially dependent on high turnout in key cities, the pressure is on to secure the support needed in places like Philadelphia.

The reported turnout gap underscores the evolving nature of the race and the significant role urban voting patterns will play in determining the final outcome.

With Election Day just hours away, the Harris campaign worked to rally its supporters, hoping for a high turnout to offset President Trump’s early voting advantage and keep the Democratic momentum alive in battleground states.

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Read the full memo below:

With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own “data experts” and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.

Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, said on MSNBC that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald

Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.

Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?

President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January.

But you don’t need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:

Arizona:

Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020

Georgia:

Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020

Michigan:

Urban turnout is down -321,523 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020

North Carolina:

Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020

Nevada:

Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020

Pennsylvania:

Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020

Wisconsin:

Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020

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