Now, I’m not saying that this is as accurate as the Pentagon Pizza Tracker…
Well, hang on a minute. Let’s check in with them…hmmmm.
Various pizzerias nearby the Pentagon are reporting above average traffic.
As of 4:25pm ET pic.twitter.com/0AJgLhTucR
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) January 14, 2026
Okay – that’s intriguing.
Earlier today, word came that the troops at the US base in Qatar had been advised to evacuate.
‘All routine precautions,’ said one congressman.
US Personnel Advised to Evacuate Qatar Military Base Amid Tensions With Iran
U.S. personnel at a military base in Qatar have been advised to evacuate the facility amid escalating tensions with nearby Iran.
…On Wednesday, personnel at the Qatar base were advised to evacuate. That same base, as noted in a report from The Associated Press, was the target of an Iranian strike in July. The report continued:
The official, who spoke to The Associated Press on Wednesday on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive plans, described the move at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a precautionary measure. The official wouldn’t go into any further details about the move, including whether the evacuation was optional or mandatory, if it affected troops or civilian personnel, or the number of those advised to leave, citing the need for operational security.
In response, Qatar said Wednesday that such measures were being “undertaken in response to the current regional tensions.”
On CNN, Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-CA) explained how the move was merely a precaution as opposed to confirmation of an imminent attack.
I can see it. I can also see it being a headfake, although they do have tankers leaving the base per the program’s monitors.
The U.S. Air Force’s evacuation of military aircraft from Al Udeid Air Base has begun in preparation of strikes against Iran, with a steady stream of at least 6 KC-135R/T “Stratotanker” Aerial-Refueling Tankers seen departing the base in Qatar. pic.twitter.com/F7pSAZFUyE
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 14, 2026
There is also word that the USS Abraham Lincoln has been told to head in the other direction. Now this sort of transit does not happen overnight.
Depending on exactly where they were when they started steaming, it could take up to a week for them to reach their station in the Indian Ocean off the Saudi Peninsula or in that general area.
I can’t believe no one’s leaked the plans to me, right?
The Pentagon has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and her Carrier Strike Group, consisting of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers; USS Spruance (DDG-111), USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112), and USS Frank E. Petersen, Jr. (DDG-121), to depart their current… pic.twitter.com/I2qfr9FlsB
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 14, 2026
Now for the sky above Iran.
What I’m talking about in the headline are aviation tracking programs that monitor planes and aviation traffic worldwide. The first clue that something might be a little out of the ordinary came when the German government issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) to stay out of Iranian airspace. Lufthansa had been scheduled to resume flights to Tehran on Friday after suspending them last June.
🇩🇪✈️🇮🇷⚠️ German authorities have issued a new NOTAM cautioning German airlines from entering Iranian airspace. Lufthansa was scheduled to resume flights to Tehran on Friday. The airline last operated the route in June 2025.
A) EDGG EDWW EDMM B) 2601141705 C) 2602102359 E)… pic.twitter.com/MN68wzzSep
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) January 14, 2026
…A) EDGG EDWW EDMM B) 2601141705 C) 2602102359 E) SECURITY – HAZARDOUS SITUATION IN IRAN CIVIL GERMAN AIR OPERATORS ARE RECOMMENDED NOT TO ENTER FIR TEHRAN (OIIX). POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION FROM ESCALATING CONFLICT AND ANTI-AVIATION WEAPONRY. THIS NOTAM OVERRULES THE RECOMMENDATION PROVIDED IN THE CURRENTLY APPLICABLE AIC.
Then folks who keep an eye on these things noticed something kind of wild happening. At four this afternoon, there seemed to be a general exodus out of Iranian airspace happening.
Airspace over Iran appears to quickly emptying, with no further flights being granted permission to enter Iranian Airspace. pic.twitter.com/N3C33VMXva
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 14, 2026
Within an hour or so later, the airspace above Iran was basically a ghost town.
As of 4:55 cst, Iranian airspace is clear pic.twitter.com/T2kIAT37r3
— FreeHorse (@FreeHorse222) January 14, 2026
Someone watching individual flights picked up on a couple of them hustling to get on the deck in a hurry.
I saw a couple of Iranian planes bound for Tehran divert to the nearest airport. It seems like they’re trying to get everyone on the ground as quickly as possible.
— Imperator (@TheRedImperium) January 14, 2026
One of the funniest Xweets I’ve ever read captured the mood of everyone watching the waiters clear the bar, tables, candles, plates, and silverware out of the room in real time in anticipation of a throwdown messing up the draperies.
Ohhh yeah, when the skies over a country start emptying out like a bar at last call after a fire alarm, that’s not “routine turbulence,” that’s airlines, insurers, and risk nerds all screaming nope in unison, because nobody with a functioning brain wants their jet accidentally…
— Dan Brisbois (@Dan_Brisbois) January 14, 2026
… wants their jet accidentally wandering into a geopolitical food fight, airspace going quiet is one of the loudest silent signals you’ll ever see, it means intelligence chatter is spicy, threat assessments just went from yellow to oh hell no, and the grown-ups are quietly moving chess pieces while Twitter prophets are still arguing vibes, this lines up perfectly with embassies pulling staff, ships anchoring offshore, tankers repositioning, and markets twitching like a caffeine addict, the world doesn’t wait for press conferences when danger smells real, it just reroutes, hedges, and tightens the belt, anyone pretending this is “nothing” is either asleep, coping, or lying for clicks, because when commercial aviation starts ghosting an entire airspace, history usually isn’t far behind warming up its entrance music.
It makes you put your ‘Hmmm‘ cap on, joining in the tactical speculation from the safety of your couch and in your home with the doors locked.
Ed’s post this afternoon, and his addendum at the end about a Trump headfake, for which he is well known, could very well be coming together.
It may be exactly this kind of offer that the mullahs can’t refuse, in Godfather-speak. In the novel, Mario Puzo called that phrase the final rattle before Vito Corleone would strike. I’d bet that’s what Trump has in mind, too. “Either make this true, or else…”
There is a lot of consensus that that is exactly what we’re seeing playing out.
Trump is clearly playing a mind game with the Iranian regime
Hours before Israel strike on Iran he posted that “We believe in diplomacy”Two days before the US strike he added “In the coming two weeks, he will decide what to do “
Trump looking to create complete confusion…— Akash P (@ImAkashprem) January 14, 2026
…Trump looking to create complete confusion everywhere, he don’t like somebody predict his moves
The thing is with Trump, you don’t know, and the Iranians may have jumped the gun with what could turn out to be a very premature ‘everything is under control here, now’ statement.
And I guess we’re not the only ones scratching our chins.
BREAKING: US may attack Iran within the next 24 hours, per Reuters.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 14, 2026
Maybe it’s not so baseless after all.
Should something go down in the very near future, may the good Lord protect our magnificent troops in whatever capacity they play, and bring relief from tyranny at last to the valiant and long-suffering people of Iran.
And JUST BEFORE THIS POSTS: Look what has been rumored to go down.
🚨 Breaking: Israel Channel 14’s @DBalazada reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Supreme Leader Khamenei, transferred $1.5 billion over the past two days to escrow accounts in Dubai 👇
They are preparing to flee!
pic.twitter.com/LbIzBE4Wkk— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) January 14, 2026
BUT WAIT! THERE’S MORE!
Holy schamoly moly if this is true. The NOTAMs over Iran have been lifted and the only aircraft entering the airspace are Chinese?
Odd that this Chinese aircraft turned off tracking before entering Iranian airspace. https://t.co/o3tCGmzjDV pic.twitter.com/2ajVIiUYBv
— Mac Stoddard (@MacStoddard) January 15, 2026
And what have we here?
Is it possible that @realDonaldTrump made a deal to let @Khamanei_ir2 and son leave Iran?
This would explain why President Trump has stated that ‘The killing has stopped,” and why he is holding off on the attack for now. The skies could not be reopened above Iran without total… https://t.co/CiEC4muYNW
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) January 15, 2026
…This would explain why President Trump has stated that ‘The killing has stopped,” and why he is holding off on the attack for now. The skies could not be reopened above Iran without total certainty that there would be no attack.
The pause would of course allow Khamanei to seek safe passage to Moscow.
To be clear, this is a total speculation.
I welcome the experts weighing in.
If Trump managed to get the tyrant ayatollah out…oh, my God.
HOLY SCHAMOLY MOLY, THIS IS CRAZY
And I am so glad to be here for it.
Now we still need to find out what was on the Bella 1…
Breaking: Denmark provided key support to the U.S. in last week’s seizure of the sanctioned oil tanker Marinera (aka Bella 1) in the North Atlantic, per U.S. and Danish officials.
The vessel, linked to violations of U.S. sanctions, was part of a shadow fleet evading… pic.twitter.com/e4cNHVJydx
— Global Report (@Globalrepport) January 13, 2026
…since half of Europe is taking credit for helping the US catch her.
Hmmmm.
Beege UPDATES: Ah! A new wrinkle! My girlfriend Leslie Eastman over at Legal Insurrection just pinged me that Iran has closed its airspace again.
BREAKING: Iran closes its airspace again.
Neither civilian nor military aircraft are allowed to enter the country without permission. https://t.co/ttUoW44050
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 15, 2026
Pahlavi with an address an hour ago. Of course, he’s been doing these the entire time, so I would hesitate to attack any particular signifigance to his words here. And I haven’t listened to enough of them to parse the lingo.
Reza Pahlavi:
“To all of our friends around the world,
Under the yoke of the Islamic Republic, Iran is identified in your minds with terrorism, extremism, and poverty. The real Iran is a different Iran. A beautiful, peace-loving, and flourishing Iran.
It is the Iran that… pic.twitter.com/yIYWvCj46d
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 15, 2026
And a light moment.
Professor of Conflict Resolution at a small liberal arts college in New England. Not bad.
— MA’ASIYAHU (@_Maasiyahu_) January 14, 2026
Hadn’t seen this from earlier, but it tracks.
The US Embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar have issued warnings for their personnel, and all Americans, to avoid key regional military installations as tensions with Iran escalate. pic.twitter.com/H2wbau3ksR
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) January 15, 2026
Ho, boy! The money leaving seems to be totally on the level. Check this out:
BREAKING: Scott Bessent reveals Treasury is tracking tens of millions of dollars fleeing Iran as its leaders know the end is near and try to escape sanctions.
The Treasury Secretary called it “rats fleeing the ship.”
BESSENT: “And Rob the other thing as Treasury who carries out… pic.twitter.com/2ZNk6J1e2o
— Overton (@overton_news) January 15, 2026
…BESSENT: “And Rob the other thing as Treasury who carries out the sanctions we can see is we are now seeing the rats fleeing the ship because we can see millions, tens of millions of dollars being wired out of the country, snuck out of the country by the Iranian leadership.”
“So they are abandoning ship, and we are seeing it come into banks and financial institutions all over the world.”
“And what we do at Treasury is we follow the money, whether it is through the banking system or through digital assets.”
“We are going to trace these assets and they will not be able to keep them.”
Little brother Crusader just sent a Xweet from this afternoon, where the Brits had shut down their Tehran Embassy and were packing everyone out as rapidly as they could.
One other note before I toss in the towel for tonight. There is word that the Iranians are also being squeezed because Kurdish fighters have tried to infiltrate over the border from Iraq. They are not friends of the regime, which has its hands full right now.
Armed Kurdish separatist groups tried to cross into Iran from Iraq in recent days, stoking fears that the country’s spiraling unrest has attracted dangerous foreign militants who could destabilize the wider region, according to reports.
Iranian officials said the attempted breach came amid a sweeping crackdown on nationwide protests against the country’s regime, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leading the response, Reuters reported.
The Tasnim News Agency also reported armed militia groups operating in Iraq crossed the border in western and northwestern Iran, according to Middle East Monitor.
Alrighty. That’s as much news, such as it is, that I have. THANK YOU ALL for keeping me company as we watch what does and doesn’t happen, in real time.
God bless.
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