Mamdani Edging Out Cuomo in NY Mayor’s Race

Ranked choice voting makes predicting even not-so-close races difficult sometimes, and when the poll numbers are close, all bets are off. 

Well, not all bets. Polymarket is doing a brisk business, and the gamblers there think Zohran Mamdani is likely to win the Democratic Party primary that ends tomorrow. 

BREAKING: Mamdani surges as clear favorite in the NYC Mayoral primary.

61% chance he wins. pic.twitter.com/8KJeTHMyan

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 23, 2025

The “optimism,” if you can call it that, about Mamdan’s prospects in the primary stems from an apparent surge of support over the past couple of weeks. In the halcyon days of early June, it seemed that former Governor Andrew Cuomo had the nomination in the bag, even though his old baggage had to fit inside the new. 

However, Mamdani has been steadily rising in the polls, and despite being a couple of points behind in initial preference — well within the margin of error — by the time the simulated “rounds” of voting end, using the Byzantine ranked-choice method, Mamdani comes out on top — barely. 

Shocking poll shows Mamdani overtaking Cuomo in NYC’s ranked choice primary https://t.co/yVVIdtfn5O pic.twitter.com/sL2ukmGeN2

— New York Post (@nypost) June 23, 2025

And Byzantine the system is. According to the simulation based on a recent poll, Mamdani would win in the EIGHTH round of counting. 

Lefty upstart Zohran Mamdani has leapfrogged over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city’s ranked choice Democratic primary for mayor, according to a stunning new poll released Monday.

In its hypothetical initial round of voting, Cuomo’s lead shrinks to 3 percentage points, with 35% of likely Democratic voters supporting him compared to 32% for Mamdani and 13% for city Comptroller Brad Lander, the Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey found.

City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams follows with 8%, Scott Stringer 3% and 5% split between candidates Zellnor Myrie, Whitney Tilson, Jessica Ramos and Michael Blake, with another 4% undecided.

Cuomo’s lead shrinks to 3 percentage points, with 35% of likely Democratic voters supporting him compared to 32% for Mamdani.

But since no one garners the more than 50% of the vote needed to win outright, the ranked choice system kicks in. That means that even if a voter’s first choice is eliminated in successive rounds of calculations, their other picks could still be in the mix and emerge as the eventual overall winner.

Mamdani finally surpasses Cuomo in the eighth round of the simulated ranked choice voting — 51.8% to 48.2% — in the latest poll conducted June 18-20.

An irony of ranked-choice voting schemes is that the rationale for implementing them is that they are more likely to result in a consensus candidate winning. Sure, they are nobody’s first choice, but that means that a centrist is likeliest to win. 

NEW YORK CITY POLL with @PIX11News & @thehill

Democratic Primary for Mayor
Cuomo 35%
Mamdani 32%
Lander 13%
Adams 8%
Stringer 3%
4% undecided

Final round of RCV
Mamdani 51.8%
Cuomo 48.2%https://t.co/WmgA8Q5PB6 pic.twitter.com/7CzmjIr96B

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) June 23, 2025

Uh, no. Not really. In fact, in highly polarized political environments, the base of a party has less incentive to seek a centrist, counting on “leaners” to move in their direction in subsequent rounds after they vote their conscience on the first. It’s unpredictable. 

Interestingly, NYC has a number of local newspapers across the political spectrum and the one thing all the editorial boards agree on is “Don’t vote for Mamdani”.#DontRankMamdani https://t.co/O1IbbwMAET pic.twitter.com/ei2MfoYqq9

— Jean (@queens_parents) June 22, 2025

The one thing every centrist can agree on in New York City is that Mamdani is a horrible choice for Mayor. He, like many socialists, is a child of privilege who has adopted radical politics, using his education and intelligence to advocate for some of the dumbest and most evil causes for all the “best” reasons. He cares deeply about issues about which he knows nothing, and justifies his existence by claiming to care for others. 

Zohran Mamdani made a rap track praising five funders of Hamas.

This jihadist CANNOT win. You think NYC is bad now? Mamdani will raise taxes, institute Sharia Law, take over businesses, persecute Jewish people, and force Islam onto all.

Vote for Cuomo.pic.twitter.com/zXPP1d1pJl

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) June 23, 2025

Wake up, NEW YORK!!

Zohran Mamdani is currently second in the running for NYC mayor.

He is a Muslim Socialist—and aside from a brief rap career, working for his mom, and playing activist, he has nothing to show for it.

Don’t let him fool you with empty promises and free sh*t.… pic.twitter.com/laEDsJHYSd

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) June 19, 2025

Mamdani embraces the “globalize the intifada” crowd, because that is how radicals roll. He is campaigning on setting aside tens of millions of dollars to sterilize and mutilate children in the name of alphabet ideology, and his economic policies are modeled on Venezuelan socialism. He is, in other words, the face of the American Left. 

ALERT 🚨 NYC – Wake Up Before It’s Too Late

Zohran Mamdani just revealed the truth behind his political career – it’s not about public service.

It’s about Palestine (Islam) and socialism.

It’s about using Islamic grievance and Marxist ideology to seize power, not serve the… pic.twitter.com/SYMej8VVd2

— Amy Mek (@AmyMek) June 18, 2025

WATCH: NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani—who wants city-run grocery stores, fare-free buses, and a $30 minimum wage—is asked who the most effective Democrat in America is.

His answer?

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu. pic.twitter.com/K6YLKu8HQe

— Bostonians Against Mayor Wu (@AntiWuCoalition) June 6, 2025

It is far from certain that Mamdani will win tomorrow, but it says quite a bit about the Democratic Party that the two leading candidates for mayor of America’s largest city are a corrupt grandma killer and a radical, pro-Hamas socialist whose #1 issue is Palestine. 

I still believe that the average Democrat just wants a kind society in which suffering is minimized, inequality softened, people have food on the table, and conflict is solved through rational discussion. But in service of that goal, they embrace grievance culture, are willing to sacrifice innocents to the demands of the loud and angry, and are unwilling to confront anybody who has the least claim to victimhood. 

Mamdani is a child of privilege, has barely held a job, and spends his time embracing terrorists. But he is Muslim, so it’s OK, even charming. He CARES, even if his policies would end in disaster.