Messy Dem Primary Spells Good News For Republican Efforts To Flip House Seat

A messy Democratic primary is buoying Republican hopes to flip a purple House seat during the midterms.

Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap announced his candidacy for Maine Democrat Rep. Jared Golden’s seat on Monday, setting the stage for a bitter primary fight that could help Republicans unseat the four-term incumbent. Dunlap is expected to run against Golden from the left and has hammered the incumbent for his willingness to work with Republicans on some issues. (RELATED: Sole House Democrat Who Voted To Keep Government Open Blames Far-Left Groups For Shutdown)

“What I’ve heard from folks is they think we can do better. They’re unhappy with our current situation,” Dunlap told Notus in an interview. “You know, Jared Golden, people feel like he’s been bad for us. He has developed a consistency of voting with the Republican caucus on very important issues that affect real Mainers.”

Golden, who has sought to cultivate a moderate brand, broke with Democratic leadership on several high-profile pieces of legislation this year. He was the lone Democrat to join House Republicans in voting to fund the government on two occasions in March and September. Golden also backed a GOP bill widely opposed by his Democratic colleagues that would require Americans to prove citizenship in order to vote.

The Maine Democrat generated headlines on the first day of the government shutdown on Oct. 1 when he argued that members of his party voted to shut down the government in order to curry favor with “far-left groups” and “put on a show of their opposition to President [Donald] Trump.”

Golden represents the most red-leaning district currently held by a Democrat, making the swing seat a top flip opportunity for Republicans during the midterms. President Donald Trump carried the district by nine percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.

Golden notably won election to Maine’s Second Congressional District every time Trump appeared on the ballot since 2016.

House Democrats’ campaign arm notably failed to persuade Dunlap to pass on a primary challenge.

Dunlap also declined to publicly support House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ leadership position in the lower chamber when pressed by Notus, arguing many people “have been disappointed by Democratic leadership.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), House Republicans’ campaign arm, cheered Dunlap’s decision to move forward with a primary challenge.

“Democrat Matt Dunlap’s entrance into this race proves what we’ve been saying all along: Serial Flip-Flopper Jared Golden has betrayed Mainers at every turn, and his own party is done with his spineless, self-serving ways,” NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole said in a statement. “Golden has got to go, and even Democrats know it.”

Golden slammed Dunlap’s entry into the race on Monday, arguing his primary challenger is posing as a progressive in order to score political points.

“If Matt Dunlap thinks this district will choose him over Paul LePage, he’s got another thing coming,” Golden said in a statement. “A 30-year party crony like Matt Dunlap won’t cut it — the last time Matt held elected office he was a pro-life Democrat at a time when that unfortunately wasn’t unusual.”

“Watching Dunlap try to recreate himself as a progressive would be amusing if it were not so cynical,” Golden added.

The winner of the Golden-Dunlap primary battle is expected to face former Republican Maine Governor Paul LePage in the general election.

Early analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the contest as a “toss-up.”