Nate Silver Discovers the Difference Between Republicans and Democrats

When doing a rundown of what his model did and did not show in the weeks before the election, Nate Silver made an observation that deserves to be noticed. 

In a piece about the virtues and vices of his model–it didn’t PREDICT the outcome, but the most frequent outcome it spit out turned out to be the final result–Silver inserted what he called a “mini-rant” about the reaction he got from Democrats and Republicans to his ongoing analyses. 

It struck him that Republicans and Democrats took a very different approach to reading and reacting to his newsletters:

Even though our forecast was near 50/50 for almost the whole race, there were certainly periods that were relatively better and worse for Harris and Trump. Our narrative content followed accordingly, with about an even mix of newsletters that presented optimistic cases for Harris and Trump. (That was not true when Joe Biden was running, but that’s because Biden was way behind in the polls.) So I essentially got to perform a randomized control trial on how partisans in both camps reacted to good and bad news.

And there was an asymmetry. Republicans are generally happy when you agree with them partway or half the time. Admittedly, the sorts of Republicans who encounter our work are not a representative sample, probably being on the moderate side — though you can find plenty of Trump supporters in the Silver Bulletin comments section.

Democrats, however — and here, I’m not referring so much to Silver Bulletin subscribers but in the broader universe online — often get angry with you when you only halfway agree with them. And I really think this difference in personality profiles tells you a little something about why Trump won: Trump was happy to take on all comers, whereas with Democrats, disagreement on any hot-button topic (say, COVID school closures or Biden’s age) will have you cast out as a heretic. That’s not a good way to build a majority, and now Democrats no longer have one.

It’s not surprising at all to me for a couple of reasons. 

First, the left is more of an ideological monolith than the right. Conservatives, on the whole, have been the “leave us alone” coalition for decades. I don’t want to overplay this because there are plenty of rigid ideologues on the right, but in general, Republicans have a very different view of the relationship between the individual, politics, and the state. 

You rarely hear about conservatives kicking people out of their families because of their politics. There are posts all over the internet about how Harris voters are having a snit fit and turning their back on their families. 

Here is a former Democratic candidate for Senate in Ohio ranting about his aunt: 

My Aunt called asking about Thanksgiving plans

During the conversation she mentioned she voted for Trump

I told her my home is not open to traitors and I would not go to theirs. I have no space in my life for those who could care less about the United States

Shes upset

FAFO

— Rick Taylor (@OhRick4) November 11, 2024

The funny thing is that the aunt will be better off without having a jerk like that in her life, although I feel sorry for her nonetheless. She has had to deal with a jerk for decades. 

Imagine if he had won a Senate seat. A budding totalitarian. 

My granddad is an old school Democrat voter who doesn’t like Trump.

I just booked a flight and hotel to go see him in Jacksonville, Florida to celebrate his upcoming 92nd birthday in January.

He’s still one of the greatest men I know. I’m still going to love him. I’m still… pic.twitter.com/rXQ7iYoy2N

— Zeek Arkham 🇺🇸 (@ZeekArkham) November 12, 2024

The other big reason, and it is related, is that Republicans have been treated as cultural outcasts for generations now by liberals. The line that “Republicans think Democrats are wrong, and Democrats think Republicans are evil” is absolutely true. Not every Democrat feels that way, but as a general rule, it is accurate. 

Republicans get much less upset when people disagree with us because we have been subject to so much abuse that when somebody wants to have a rational conversation, we jump at the chance. A reasonable moderate or Democrat is a blessing. Even a non-orthodox Democrat is a relief. 

I think Trump or @elonmusk are more likely to come on @TheYoungTurks than any Democratic leader. We disagree more with Trump and Elon, but they’re at least willing to have a conversation. Whereas Democratic leadership thinks it’s offensive if you ask them hard questions. They…

— Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) November 12, 2024

Kamala Harris tried to perform bipartisanship by embracing, of all people, Liz Cheney. Republicans laughed, and Democrats were similarly repelled, although for different reasons. 

Donald Trump, though, attracted some of the best and brightest in the Democratic Party, largely because he embraced them while Democrats did everything they could to exile them from the Party. 

As a result, the Democrats got Bill Kristol, Dick Cheney, Liz Cheney, Rick Wilson, and a rogue’s gallery of Republicans who hate Republicans, while the Republicans inherited Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr., Elon Musk, and some of the best Democrat thinkers out there. 

It’s a good trade. 

Silver’s direct experience with the closed-mindedness and vitriolic nature of the modern Democratic Party is emblematic of why the Democrats are in the political wilderness. 

The bubble has gotten so small that even hinting that boys are boys and girls are girls will get you canceled.