Nate Silver Wonders: Why Is This Man Still Around?

If nothing else, at least David Strom got an answer to his question earlier today. At least one person has noticed that no one seems to be in charge, and that’s Nate Silver. He also wonders why no one has done anything about it yet.

Unfortunately, his prescription for the electoral hangover is something considerably worse than the hair of the dog:

Is there any particular reason to assume Biden is competent to be president right now? It’s a very difficult job. It’s a dangerous world. Extremely high-stakes decisions in Ukraine. He should resign and let Harris serve out the last 2 months.https://t.co/02huFqQT3W pic.twitter.com/ZLWqcbkAYW

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 20, 2024

Ahem. Perhaps this question answers itself in one key sense — presence. If Biden isn’t up to the job, wouldn’t the Vice President remain on hand to assist the President? So where is Kamala Harris at the moment?

Oh, yeah …

At 2:55 PM PT, the Vice President will arrive in Los Angeles, CA. This arrival at Los Angeles International Airport will be closed press. 

AT 4:25 PM PT, the Vice President and the Second Gentleman will depart Los Angeles, CA en route to Kalaoa, HI. This departure from Los Angeles International Airport will be closed press. 

At 7:50 PM HT, the Vice President and the Second Gentleman will arrive in Kalaoa, HI. This arrival at Kona International Airport will be closed press. 

That came from the VP’s press office two days ago, courtesy of our pal Andrew Malcolm, who found it amusing after I quipped in Monday’s Final Word about Harris’ absence. Harris has no interest in doing her own job at the moment, let alone her boss’ job. 

Besides, while Nate is a brilliant statistical analyst, he hasn’t thought this through much at all. What foreign-policy skills and experience would Harris bring to bear on these crises in the final eight weeks of the Biden term? Harris barely even mentioned foreign policy during the campaign; her few words on the subject were typical word-salad dodges on the war Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran launched against Israel. For the previous three years to July 21, Harris couldn’t even be bothered to deal with the dangerous world on our own southern border, let alone the dangerous world in Ukraine. 

Joe Biden’s claim to foreign-policy expertise were mainly fabulist, but at least he’s been present for some of those crises. Harris has never bothered to show up at all, both figuratively and literally when it came to the Biden border crisis. 

On top of that, what good would Harris do anyway? Who does she represent? She’s even more of a lame duck than Biden now. The American people rejected her two weeks ago, and instead elected the predecessor administration. Harris couldn’t claim to carry any legitimacy into the kind of negotiations that would persuade or pressure allies or antagonists, even if Harris had the talent to engage. 

All parties to these conflicts understand that Donald Trump now carries the imprimatur of American leadership after a clear and decisive election. Trump may not be able to negotiate yet in public, thanks to the never-enforced Logan Act, but there’s no point for anyone to negotiate with anyone else now, either. They’ll wait eight weeks for open engagement, but you can bet your bottom dollar that they’re already reaching out to people around Trump to start the process of dealing with these crises. 

The real issue that Nate raises is the length of the lame-duck presidency in the American system. This is an issue in most transitions that involve changes in party control of the White House, although both parties usually do their best to minimize it for obvious reasons. Even under the best of circumstances, the change in party control leaves a ten-week gap in which American leadership in foreign affairs becomes necessarily murky while the transition takes place. The lame-duck president remains nominally in charge but acts as a caretaker or regent for the most part until the new president has the constitutional authority to act. 

That task is all but impossible with a cognitively impaired president and an empty suit for a VP. Clearly no one is in charge, at least no one with proper constitutional authority to act as head of state and head of government. The real solution would be for Biden and Congress to accelerate the transition and get Trump in sooner, but that timing is fixed in the Constitution. And while Biden has been surprisingly gracious since Election Day (and should be commended for that), he’s not about to leave the White House one hour earlier than required. 

We should rethink the timing of transitions and shorten the period considerably, and do so properly by constitutional amendment. Or perhaps we can simply stop pretending that cognitively impaired presidents are “sharp as a tack” for two-plus years and act to deal responsibly with that situation when it arises, rather than after a public debate makes the crisis too obvious to ignore.