NBC: Trump About to Declare War on Mexican Cartels

The idea is not new. Even action against the cartels wouldn’t necessarily be new, nor would cooperation with Mexico’s government to fight them. The scale contemplated for a new war against the Mexican drug and trafficking cartels would be unprecedented, however, as would be the open possibility that Donald Trump might not bother to engage Claudia Sheinbaum’s government in order to defenestrate the organized-crime rings plaguing the American border.

For now, NBC reports, Mexico’s on board — and the war could use a new weapons platform to soften up the cartels:

The Trump administration is considering launching drone strikes on drug cartels in Mexico as part of an ambitious effort to combat criminal gangs trafficking narcotics across the southern border, according to six current and former U.S. military, law enforcement and intelligence officials with knowledge of the matter.

Discussions among White House, Defense Department and intelligence officials, which are still at an early stage, have included possible drone strikes against cartel figures and their logistical networks in Mexico with the cooperation of Mexico’s government, the sources said.

Still, the administration has made no final decision and reached no definitive agreement about countering the cartels. And unilateral covert action, without Mexico’s consent, has not been ruled out and could be an option of last resort, the sources said. 

In fact, the war has already begun, albeit in the preliminary stages:

The U.S. military and the CIA have dramatically stepped up surveillance flights over Mexico to collect intelligence in advance of what is likely to be a major campaign against the cartels, which the White House has labeled a threat to national security, the six sources said. The flights are being carried out with Mexico’s approval, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said.

“They’re looking to build a target deck,” one of the former officials, who is familiar with the administration’s plans, said of the surveillance flights. The potential target list most likely could include cartel operatives, vehicles, warehouses and other parts of the gangs’ network, the sources said.

If so, then it seems curious to leak these plans now. Or does it? First off, this leak might be meant as a warning to Sheinbaum’s government to cooperate or get out of the way. NBC’s sources go out of their way to note how key officials claim to have warned their counterparts in Sheinbaum’s government about the potential for unilateral action. Given the rampant corruption in Mexico, especially on behalf of the cartels, the Trump administration has to be questioning just how much coordination will cost the effort to defeat the cartels.

The leak could also signal that action is going to take place in the near future. By leaking the existence of the scaled-up surveillance flights, this could prompt the cartels to start moving its assets in anticipation of target selection by US forces. That movement would make those assets much more vulnerable and easier to pick off if US forces were prepared to select and hit targets in real time. The “target deck” certainly helps, and would likely be used in any case, but catching those assets out in the open would make matters easier for US forces.

Either way, a leak strategy would mean action in the immediate future. Of course, this could also just be an unplanned leak by a couple of rogue sources within the planning. That happens too, and might indicate some internal dissent to the plans being considered. Having six sources on this argues somewhat against that interpretation, but not overwhelmingly so.

Besides, it has been clear since the election campaign that Trump would shift the US response to the cartels from defense to offense. For years, the cartels have attacked Border Patrol agents and operated their drug and human trafficking networks with impunity. Border security and fighting the cartels was a key part of all three Trump campaigns, and it became clear that he would take the gloves off if he returned to office. 

Sheinbaum also seems to be on board so far; NBC also reports that she approved the high-intensity surveillance actions by the US against the cartels, which her predecessor Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador had balked at allowing. That may not be entirely altruistic either, as one of their sources told NBC. The “senior” DEA official during the Biden administration lamented Joe Biden’s “handwringing” during AMLO’s term, and believes Sheinbaum knows that the situation has changed:

He said he believes fear of Trump could push Mexico to accept U.S. military action. 

“Politics aside, Trump is not f—— around with this stuff,” he said, adding that Mexican officials may fear potential economic retaliation if they defy the Trump administration.

Trump has been nothing if not clear on this point. The demise of the cartels would benefit Mexico too, by removing a corrupting and corrosive element that has warped their government and their relations with the US and the Western hemisphere for decades. The long-term benefits of defeating the cartels are obvious, but it’s the short-term benefits of the corruption that have prevented Mexican officials from acting on long-term interests. If the US can successfully destroy the cartels’ access to markets and cash, not to mention oxygen, the incentives will shift in a sharply beneficial direction.

That is a big if, of course. We have plenty of military might, but these aren’t armies as much as they are organized-crime syndicates. It will take years of determined and concerted efforts to truly dismantle them and end that threat on our shared border with Mexico and to Mexican self-governance. We have tried this before — and didn’t have the stomach to fight at scale or for long enough to win. Will this be different? The political environment has certainly changed in the US, and perhaps in Mexico too, but we’ll see how long that will last — especially in Mexico. 

At least one thing has already changed for the better: we are no longer keeping the cartels strictly in the law-enforcement paradigm. They are terrorist networks and a threat to our security in multiple ways, and it’s long past time that we treat them as such.