NEW: Hamas Agrees to Release 10 Hostages?

Is this a breakthrough for Israel and the Middle East? Or just another version of the Hamas Hokey Pokey?

NBC News reports this morning that Hamas has agreed to release ten of the living hostages in exchange for a large number of Palestinian prisoners in a first phase of a cease-fire. This would follow the framework proposed by Steven Witkoff, but it leaves a lot of other details murky, to say the least:

Hamas said it would release 10 hostages held in Gaza in a bid to reach a ceasefire deal to end 21 months of war in the Palestinian enclave, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conducted high-level talks in Washington.

As part of its “commitment to the success” of ongoing peace talks, the militant group said in a news release Wednesday, it would free the captives, although it cautioned that the talks with Israel had been difficult. It did not say when the hostages would be freed.

This followed remarks by both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio yesterday that strongly hinted a deal was just about ready to be revealed. The time frame sounded more like a fortnight than an overnight, however, and this doesn’t address the other disputed points of the Witkoff plan. The Israelis don’t want to firmly commit to a permanent cease-fire unless it includes the ejection of Hamas from Gaza. And just this morning, Hamas objected to the part of the plan that allows a large IDF presence to remain in Gaza during the interim:

Hamas says it opposes any ceasefire deal that includes a large Israeli military presence in Gaza, describing disagreements over the withdrawal and free flow of aid into Gaza as sticking points, as well as its demands for “real guarantees” for a lasting truce.

Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim tells AFP: “We cannot accept the perpetuation of the occupation of our land and the surrender of our people to isolated enclaves under the control of the occupation army. This is what the negotiating delegation is presenting to the occupation so far in the current round of negotiations in Doha.”

Hamas is particularly opposed to Israeli control over the southern city of Rafah, on the border with Egypt, and the so-called Morag Corridor between Rafah and Khan Younis, he adds.

I wrote about the key strategic value of the Morag Corridor last night. The Israelis want local clans to stand up and take control of southern Gaza as opposition to Hamas should a deal require their withdrawal, and the corridor is helping these clans to stand up — if they wish. The Israelis want Rafah secured so as to keep arms from flowing to Hamas again through Egypt and the Philadelphi Corridor, from which Israel refuses to withdraw for obvious reasons. The IDF took this corridor in April and is using it at the moment to protect operations in Khan Younis to reduce Hamas’ infrastructure.

Interestingly, even though NBC News and other American media are reporting this supposed offer from Hamas, none of the Israeli media are making significant mention of it. They are reporting this pushback from Hamas, as well as their opposition to the strategy of disconnections between Gaza “enclaves” related to the Morag strategy. Hamas also wants to take back control of aid deliveries to Gaza as part of any hostage-exchange deal.

Their “offer” raises some serious implications, even if genuine. At this stage, 20 hostages are believed to remain alive. As the Wall Street Journal points out, this deal would essentially condemn half of them to remain “in hell” for the foreseeable future as pawns for Hamas and targets of their brutality:

“It’s Schindler’s list,” said Anat Angrest, the mother of captive soldier Matan Angrest, 22, who said her son was injured. “I don’t understand how the state can choose who should stay in hell.”

Israel and Hamas are now hammering out a deal that would see the release of 10 living hostages and the bodies of 18 others in exchange for a 60-day cease-fire and the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. A deal appears to be closer than at any point in recent months.

In two previous cease-fire rounds, the decisions, while painful, were easier to rationalize in some ways. Priority was given to civilian women, children and the elderly. Next in line were female soldiers or men who were injured.

Now, all of the living hostages are men, and they are all likely to be in a deteriorating mental and physical state. For the families still waiting, the decision is creating deep despair.

This would be agonizing if the Hamas offer had any legitimacy. However, it’s pretty clear that they are once again dangling their hostages to force concessions to ever-changing demands and attempts to rewrite conditions for a cease-fire to ensure their survival. This has been Hamas’ pattern for decades, and will continue as long as their enemies remain more desperate for a deal than they are. Hamas wants the media to take this offer at face value and then blame Israel and the US when their next hokey-pokey steps make negotiations futile. The only way to win that game is to refuse to play.