NEW: Israelis Trade Full Occupation for Gaza City Seizure; Germany Responds

For most of the last week, Benjamin Netanyahu has talked about a full-out occupation of the Gaza Strip as Hamas has refused to negotiate in good faith. He has taken pains to avoid the O-word, opting for “control” instead to hopefully avoid diplomatic consequences for re-occupation. 

The Israeli cabinet balked at the idea of full-scale ‘control’ of the entire Gaza Strip. They did, however, approve a plan to seize Gaza City with a three-month offensive, which immediately prompted criticism at home and abroad:

The security cabinet approved overnight Thursday-Friday a proposal by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take over the densely populated Gaza City, the premier’s office announced in a statement, bucking warnings from the Israel Defense Forces that the operation risks the lives of the remaining hostages in addition to potentially sparking a humanitarian disaster.

The limitation of the takeover to Gaza City did not seem to go as far as what had earlier been characterized as a plan to occupy the entirety of the Strip. Netanyahu told Fox News hours before the security cabinet convened that a full takeover was his intention.

However, the statement from Netanyahu’s office notably described the adopted proposal as one aimed at “defeating Hamas,” meaning that there may be subsequent operations beyond the one for Gaza City that were approved and not announced.

Netanyahu’s office is still avoiding the O-word, but it’s not fooling anyone:

The decision did not use the word “occupy,” and instead referred to “taking over,” due to legal reasons pertaining to Israel’s responsibility for civilian matters in Gaza, according to the Ynet news site. The outlet added, however, citing an unnamed senior Israel official, that this distinction was superficial, and the decision in fact relates to full military rule. The conquest would stop if a hostage deal is clinched, according to the report.

In fairness, this might be the least bad of all the options Netanyahu has in front of him. Hamas won’t negotiate on the basis of conceding power, not even to other Arab forces, as a recent declaration by Sunni nations demanded. In fact, Hamas isn’t talking at all to anyone except Turkey at the moment, not even their patrons in Qatar, and not even for bad-faith proposals. Hamas thinks they have Israel over a barrel, thanks to the feckless moral midgets in Paris and London, and to a certain extent, they’re correct. Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are about to reward Hamas with a recognized state (at least in their eyes) for all of the terrorism conducted over the last 19 years, and especially after October 7. 

If Netanyahu withdraws, Hamastan is a fait accompli, and it will fuel terrorism for another 20 years. On the other hand, fighting this war to an unconditional surrender or a Carthaginian outcome will cost the lives of the hostages, not to mention a significant number of IDF soldiers, massive civilian deaths in Gaza, and likely end Israel’s diplomatic partnerships. It would end Hamas, but the lengthy occupation necessary would likely give rise to more terror/insurgent groups. The Israeli electorate won’t like either outcome.

They don’t like this one either, but Netanyahu has little choice. The declarations by Macron and Starmer make it more necessary than ever to scour Hamas from what will be a state with the presumed right to militarized security, and Hamas will seize control of it. He can’t just exit without preventing that outcome, but he doesn’t have the political strength to choose Hamas delenda est in full either. Seizing its urban power base is basically the in-between solution, but in practical terms, the worst of both worlds too. The hostages will likely get killed, and Hamas will capture and hostage IDF soldiers as the operation progresses. Netanyahu could avoid that by going the Curtis LeMay route and simply level Gaza City, in a sort of mini-Carthage — which again will not prove popular with Israelis and the world. 

It didn’t take long for Netanyahu’s opposition to rip him over this decision:

Opposition leader and Yesh Atid chairman MK Yair Lapid on Friday slammed the Security Cabinet’s decision to approve Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to occupy Gaza City, calling it “a disaster.”

“The decision made by the [Security] Cabinet is a disaster that will lead to many more disasters.”

“In complete contrast to the military and security echelons, with no consideration for the wear and tear of the fighting forces, [Itamar] Ben-Gvir and [Bezalel] Smotrich dragged Netanyahu into a move that will take many months, lead to the deaths of hostages and soldiers, cost tens of billions for the Israeli taxpayer, and result in a diplomatic collapse.”

Referring to Hamas and Israel’s plan, Lapid added, “This is exactly what Hamas wanted: for Israel to be trapped in the territory without a goal, without defining the picture of the day after, in a pointless occupation that no one understands where it is leading.”

Germany has already responded with an arms embargo:

“The German government believes that the even tougher military action in the Gaza Strip decided upon by the Israeli cabinet last night makes it increasingly difficult to see how these goals can be achieved,” said [Chancellor Friedrich] Merz.

“Under these circumstances, the German government will not approve any exports of military equipment that could be used in the Gaza Strip until further notice.”

The US would likely make up any losses in that exchange; Israel has purchased a little over $500 million since the start of the war from Germany, so it’s hardly a body blow. Other Western nations immediately expressed disapproval and warned that the choice would continue to strain relations. 

Is this a bluff to get Hamas to start negotiating again? Netanyahu’s right-wing allies suspect it might be, so they’re not happy about this plan either. They demanded the Carthaginian plan and have been pushing that for months. If it’s a bluff, it’s a good one; news reports yesterday included leaks from US intel that the IDF has built up a large force that appeared ready to attack Gaza City. 

If it’s not a bluff, then Netanyahu had better hope that the mission takes less than the three months he projects. If not, then the chances are good that another PM will set policy shortly thereafter. 

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