NY Times: Democrats Are Losing Tomorrow’s Elections Today

This isn’t really a new idea in fact there have been lots of articles published about this topic in the past five years. Still, with the next census just over five years away, it’s something today’s Democrats might want to be thinking about.

The idea is simple. Over the past decade, many more Americans have moved to red states from blue states than the other way around. Blue states are losing population and that becomes a political problem for Democrats every time the census is taken and the number of House seats are reapportioned. 

After the 2020 census it was mostly red states that gained seats and mostly blue states that lost seats, though the overall shift wasn’t very dramatic that year.

Based on the 2020 Census apportionment population counts, seven seats shifted among 13 states, while the number of representatives for most states remained unchanged since the 2010 Census apportionment (Tables 2a and 2b). This is the smallest number of seats shifting for any decade since the Method of Equal Proportions was first used for the 1940 Census apportionment. Texas gained two seats, and five states each gained one seat: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. Seven states each lost one seat: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Still the trend from blue to red states has been happening for a while and the number of people voting with their feet is significant.

Progressive governors of the blue states of California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts have vowed to resist or fight against Trump 2.0. New Jersey governor Murphy said he would “fight to the death.”…

These efforts are misdirected. The surest sign is that Americans are fleeing from the places these governors and their #Resistence reign—and fleeing to red states where policies like those proposed by Trump have won out. For the past 30 years, progressive policies have fueled a mass exodus of the citizens of California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts, whether with high-, middle-, or blue collar incomes. From 1990 to 2021, net domestic migration fleeing their states has totaled 13 million, as reported by the IRS.

Meanwhile, the red states of Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada, and South Carolina have had net in-migration of 13 million over the same period.

if you look ahead to the next census in 2030 and the reapportionment that follows, Democrats are facing more losses. As one columnist put it last month, Democrats are losing tomorrow’s elections today.

States that voted for Kamala Harris this year are set to lose 12 seats in the House of Representatives, and an equal number of presidential electors, after 2030, according to the two groups’ extrapolations from Census Bureau data.

California is on track to lose four congressmen and electoral votes.

New York will lose three, Illinois two, while Oregon, Minnesota and Rhode Island are each going to be down one.

Solidly Republican states will get most of the gains, with Texas picking up four congressional seats and electoral votes, Florida acquiring three, and Idaho, Utah and Tennessee each adding one.

Most people are making these moves for affordability. Shockingly, it turns out that places run exclusively by Democrats are really expensive. Taxes are higher, home prices are higher, the prices of gas (in the case of California) is a lot higher. Most of the people voting with their feet are moving for livability.

Bruce Ailion, a real estate agent and attorney with Re/Max Town and Country in Georgia, says it’s understandable why blue-state residents are buying properties in cheaper conservative areas.

“Property values are protected in well-governed, pro-growth, pro-business states that are tough on crime. Increasingly, those are red states,” he says.

In addition to that, red states tend to offer lower taxes and fewer regulations, adds Mike Rhoads, owner of Wild North Home Offers in North Carolina.

But politics does play a role as well. Some people want to get away from crime and homelessness. They may just want to go somewhere the politics are less extreme.

…according to agents, plenty of Golden Staters relocated not just because of California’s record-breaking home prices and high taxes, but also its uber-liberal politics.

“I have had countless clients sell their homes in California specifically to escape the political environment here,” says Sam Fitz-Simon of Compass in Danville, CA.

In any case, this trend is going to continue and it’s going to have a significant impact, especially on Democrats, in future elections unless something changes very soon. I can’t embed the NY Times video but it’s worth a look. 

In @nytopinion

Every year, millions of Americans move from one state to another. But in recent decades, more and more have been abandoning blue states for more affordable red ones. An Opinion video shows the big political implications for Democrats.https://t.co/gqfsewDUyj

— The New York Times (@nytimes) December 12, 2024