Historian Victor Davis Hanson outlined a series of geopolitical and economic pressures affecting Cuba, arguing that shifting global dynamics could force significant changes within the island nation’s political system.
Hanson described how Cuba’s longstanding support from foreign allies has weakened over time, pointing to changes involving Russia, Venezuela, and prior U.S. policy decisions.
“I think the problem with Cuba was that they were propped up by the Russians and by the Obama administration that opened up relations and allowed tourism and propped that Castro white government up but and the Maduro Chavez Chavez, Maduro regime gave them subsidized fuel.”
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He said those external sources of support have been disrupted, contributing to economic strain inside Cuba.
“So, Trump, they never think he’s a geo-strategic thinker, but he is. So you chase the Chinese or try to chase them out of Panama and Latin America, cut them off from Iranian oil and control Venezuelan oil, which they were getting a lot of. Then you get rid of the hardcore Stalinist and Venezuela, they’re still probably socialists, but they’re under control of the United States, and then Russia can’t get in there because it’s embargoed, and they’re tied down in Ukraine, and you’ve got Cuba starving to death.”
Hanson pointed to shortages affecting daily life in Cuba, describing limited fuel supplies and disruptions to transportation.
“No oil. Their airlines are all parked. They can’t fly. Most of the cars can’t run. It just and so they were falling apart.”
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He also referenced leadership changes within the Cuban government, noting the reduced role of longtime figures.
“So the government, the surviving Castro brother, is it Raul Castro? I think he’s 95 he’s just irrelevant. They’ve got a technocrat running it, or an old apparatus check. So just a question of, how do you survive?”
Hanson said Cuban officials may be looking toward tourism and foreign investment as a path forward, particularly involving American visitors.
“And they, what they think is, well, Americans are going to come here, a bunch of Cuban right wing Americans with a lot of money are going to come here, and they’re going to put beaches on the hotels, and they’re going to bring in, fix the airport, they’ll have cruise ships.”
He continued, “This will be all great, but we’ll still be communist.”
Hanson argued that increased American involvement could bring broader changes beyond tourism.
“And the Cubans think from America. No, you won’t. We’re going to come in over there, and we’re going to not just take over the tourist industry, and you won’t not just have Carnival cruises there, but we’re going to insidiously undermine the government and turn it into constitutional system.”
He also addressed differing views on Cuba among Americans, including those on college campuses.
“It’s kind of funny, because the leftists, if you ask a leftist on campus, they love Castro, they love Cuba, but they never would want to, you know, live there, but if you said to them, we’re going to free the Cuban people, and there’s going to be spirit airline, charter flights and Caravan cruises, and you’re going to have mobs of Americans there, and it’s going to be like Key West on steroids. Oh no. Why would you do that?”
Hanson added, “So they don’t want that, obviously. But you know, McDonald’s, Starbucks everywhere.”
He also discussed Cuba’s historical development and demographics, noting the island’s role during early Spanish exploration.
“If you read it about early Spanish literature in the 16th century, that’s where Cortez was. He first came. Most of the Spanish Hill dog goes that came to the New World. Went to Cuba first.”
Hanson said Spanish colonization significantly altered the island’s population.
“And that’s where Castro, I mean, Cortez left Cuba to go land in what was the little shrine of Veracruz to conquer the Aztec empire.”
He continued, “He left because and they had most of the indigenous people on Cuba. The native had been extinguished by the Spanish and they brought in a lot of African slaves.”
Hanson described the current composition of Cuba’s population as shaped by those historical events.
“So today in Cuba, it’s a little bit different ethnically than, say, Mexico or Bolivia or Peru. It’s mostly direct descendants from the ruling Spanish and then mestizos, who intermarried with former slaves and black Africans, but you don’t have a lot of indigenous people alive in, if any, in in Cuba.”
He added, “So it’s unique, because that island was ethnically cleansed of indigenous people by the Spanish. There weren’t very many of them, and they were very violent, and they had pretty much existential wars with the Spanish.”
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