‘Panic In The Harris Camp’ As New Polling Shows Trump Leading In Key Swing States

Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground in three key swing states ahead of the 2024 election, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

Trump holds a lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, signaling a potential shift in battleground states that played a pivotal role in the 2020 election.

The poll, conducted between September 17 and 21, surveyed 2,077 likely voters across the three states.

Latest NYT/Siena has Trump 5 ahead in AZ, 4 ahead in GA. Panic in the Harris camp should flush her out for risky public interactions like – ahem – press conferences and town halls where the full glory of her unformed mind will be on show. pic.twitter.com/RAUHRMJSdY

— Miranda Devine (@mirandadevine) September 23, 2024

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In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by five points, with a 50%-45% margin.

In Georgia, he holds a similar lead at 49%-45%.

The race is tighter in North Carolina, where Trump leads by a narrow 49%-47%.

This swing toward Trump is significant, particularly in Arizona and Georgia, both of which  Joe Biden won in 2020.

Arizona’s shift is especially noteworthy, as a New York Times poll in August showed Harris leading by five points in the state.

The latest numbers suggest that Trump’s support has grown in these crucial states as the general election approaches.

The @NYTimes is reporting some of its state-by-state polls this AM. Former President Donald Trump is ahead of VP Harris in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina –by 5, 4 and 2 points respectively. No wonder Harris is banging the table for another debate. She is losing. And the…

— Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) September 23, 2024

The findings from the New York Times poll come just days after a Fox News national survey indicated Harris leading Trump by two points, with a 50%-48% margin.

The Fox News poll also highlighted a shift in voter sentiment since mid-August when Trump held a one-point advantage.

Several factors could have influenced this change, including the Democratic National Convention, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump after dropping out of the race, and the endorsement of Harris by former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney.

Additionally, a second assassination attempt on Trump occurred during the polling period, potentially affecting voter opinions.

Republican pollsters remain optimistic about Trump’s chances in the 2024 election, especially given the national polling landscape.

Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who works with Fox News, pointed out that if Trump is within two points of Harris nationally, he is likely to win the Electoral College.

Shaw emphasized that the data showing Trump’s lead in key battleground states aligns with this outlook.

In addition to the New York Times poll, a separate analysis from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill reveals a close race in all three swing states.

These slim margins highlight the high stakes in these battleground states as the election draws nearer.

Trump’s growing support in Arizona is particularly striking, as it represents a reversal from August when Harris led by five points.

Among registered voters, Trump now holds a 49%-45% lead, with 7% of voters either undecided or refusing to answer.

In Georgia, Trump leads 48%-44% among registered voters, a change from last month when the two candidates were tied at 47% each.

Similarly, in North Carolina, Trump has edged ahead with a 48%-47% lead, reversing Harris’s previous advantage.

The results from these states are crucial for Trump’s path to the presidency.

While Harris could still win the election without carrying Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina, it would make her path significantly more difficult.

These states, particularly Georgia and North Carolina, are seen as critical to Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.

If Trump manages to secure victories in these battleground states, it could dramatically alter the outcome of the 2024 election.

The polls also reflect the close nature of the race and the importance of voter turnout.

With the margin of sampling error ranging from 4.2 to 4.6 percentage points across the three states, the race remains highly competitive.

Trump’s lead, while notable, is within the margin of error, suggesting that both campaigns will need to focus heavily on mobilizing their respective bases in the final weeks of the race.

Overall, the latest polling data provides a boost for Trump’s campaign, signaling that he is competitive in key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

As the race continues to unfold, both Trump and Harris will likely focus their efforts on these critical states, where even small shifts in voter sentiment could have a major impact on the final result.

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