Polymarket Releases First Look At 2028 Presidential Odds

The betting website Polymarket announced a “new Polymarket” focused on the 2028 presidential election Friday in a post to X.

As of publication, Vice President JD Vance leads the pack at 27 percent when not selecting for party, with Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom coming in second at 17 percent, according to Polymarket. The site describes itself as the largest prediction market in the world and allows users to “buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes,” its website reads.

Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez places third at 10 percent, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Former Democratic 2024 presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris places ninth at four percent, just behind President Donald Trump, who will be ineligible to run for reelection in 2028 because he will have served two terms.

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Who will win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election?

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 18, 2025

Among Democratic contenders, Newsom leads the field in betting with a 22 percent chance of winning, followed by Ocasio-Cortez, who has an 18 percent chance, according to Polymarket.

Behind the frontrunners are Buttigieg, with 12 percent, Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro with seven percent and Harris with six percent.

Vance has a clear lead in the betting for Republican contenders at 56 percent, far ahead of second-place Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is at 6%, according to Polymarket.

Vance assumed the post of RNC campaign finance chair in March — the first to hold the post while serving as vice president — setting him up to be one of the primary GOP fundraisers and ensuring he will play a key role in the 2026 midterms and further afield.

The vice president has engaged with mainstream television hosts in viral interviews. He also reportedly played a major role in pushing at least two Trump cabinet picks — Director of Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — through the Senate.

Republican Florida Rep. Byron Donalds labeled Vance “the leader in the clubhouse” in April, noting that he would be a difficult opponent in 2028.

Newsom has made himself regularly available on social media and in adversarial interviews with people leaning toward the right in what many pundits speculate is a primer for a 2028 run. (RELATED: Newsom Steps On Political Landmine, Repeats Party’s Infamous Mistake)

He’s also appears to have the backing of a prominent Democrat in South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. the congressman said he “feels good about” Newsom’s chances at the White House while appearing next to him in an early July event in South Carolina.

Clyburn, who party insiders and media have referred to as the Democratic “kingmaker,” boosted former President Joe Biden’s presidential run in 2020 by endorsing him. The endorsement was a key factor for Biden winning the state’s primary, according to The Washington Post.