ROOKE: Democrats Willing To Chase Political Pipe Dream Straight Off A Cliff

Democrats seem to be feeling energized by some recent positive results and a classic piece of liberal media optimism that paints a picture of supposed cracks in President Donald Trump’s rural support due to tariffs and policy reforms. But history shows they might be in over their skis.

Politico reported Saturday that Democrats believe they have a chance to gain significant support from voters in GOP strongholds in rural America. The story exemplifies how the Democratic Party, fueled by wishful thinking and a visceral desire to beat Trump at any cost, is poised to squander significant resources on an illusory opportunity in rural America. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) rolled out an eight-figure investment into a first-ever dedicated rural outreach program, complete with staff hires, voter mobilization, and ads featuring disgruntled farmers.

At first glance, this appears to be strategic. Democrats cite Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger’s November gubernatorial win in which she captured 46 percent of rural voters and outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 48 of 52 rural localities by attacking Trump’s tariffs and emphasizing affordability concerns. (Sign up for Mary Rooke’s weekly newsletter here!)

“We have a unique opening because of all that’s happening with this administration,” Democratic Illinois Rep. Nikki Budzinski told Politico. She added that farmers and rural voters, who make up a significant portion of her district, “might be listening in a more unique way than they maybe have ever in the past. And we need to walk through that door.”

Compete everywhere… this isn’t just about one cycle. We must have a longterm strategic plan to re-engage and eventually win back rural communities. #DirtRoadDemocrats @DirtRoadPAC https://t.co/0M0j1goVcA

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) December 1, 2025

Political realities should show this as a profound misallocation of Democratic Party resources. Their move is driven more by ideological fervor and headline-chasing than by prudent political calculus. For example, Spanberger’s success in Virginia is notable but does not translate nationally. Virginia’s rural areas are influenced by proximity to suburban federal workers, and her centrist branding resonated in a state with unique demographics. Replicating her rural gains in deeper-red rural heartlands — like the Midwest or the Great Plains — requires overcoming decades of perceived Democratic neglect.

Democrats already lost a bid to pick up a rural seat in Tennessee. Republican candidate Matt Van Epps beat Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn for retiring Republican Rep. Mark Green’s vacant seat Dec. 2. Van Epps’ district is a quintessential red stronghold, stretching from parts of Nashville to rural Tennessee. Republicans have historically dominated here. Still, Democrats deployed their new affordability campaign strategy hoping for an upset.

In the end, Van Epps beat Behn by 9 points. While narrower than Trump’s 22-point win over Harris, Van Epps’ victory showed a hole in Democrats’ new plan.

Nicholas Jacobs and Daniel Shea note in their 2023 book, The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America, that perceptions of Democratic indifference are deeply entrenched among rural voters. Authenticity and sustained presence are required to rebuild trust, not sporadic ad buys or listening tours. These voters still remember what happened to their family farms and rural communities after elite-driven trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which devastated local economies, imposed regulatory burdens on farming, and created cultural disconnects.

Rural Americans deserve to be seen, heard and supported. That isn’t happening in D.C.

Democrats can change that – and we plan to. https://t.co/zilveS3ubr

— Andy Beshear (@AndyBeshearKY) December 9, 2025

Additionally, the opportunity cost for Democrats is staggering. Midterms historically favor the opposition, but only if resources are deployed efficiently. Diverting eight figures to erode margins in unwinnable rural districts dilutes efforts in competitive suburbs or urban turnout operations where Democrats are more likely to generate positive voter support. Democrats even admit that rural communities won’t be a gold mine of election-day votes. They merely seek to chip away at 80+ Trump margins.

The real reason Democrats are touting this campaign strategy and Politico is giving them the runway to do it is because it keeps donors engaged. It’s performative politics for elites sitting inside their offices, visualizing narratives of Democratic inroads in Trump country to generate media buzz.

The issue is that it spreads a bruised and battered Democratic Party, still recovering from 2024, too thin. They are diverting millions from winnable suburbs or shoring up their base, all for marginal erosion in places they’ll never flip. This Politico narrative offers false hope post-2024 that Democrats have been hoping for to drum up much-needed donor dollars, but in return could forfeit real opportunities elsewhere. (ROOKE: Trump Admin Sends Much-Needed Lifeline To American Farmers Just In Nick Of Time)

That doesn’t mean that Republicans shouldn’t remain vigilant in their duties to support rural America. After all, complacency is why Republicans were able to win over blue-collar voters after decades of being staunchly pro-Democrat. It’s now more important than ever for the GOP to deliver tangible results. It’s the only way to keep their massive rural bloc securely red.

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