ROOKE: Did Democrats Over-Perform In Election Sweep — Or Was Kamala Harris Just Uniquely Terrible?

Tuesday’s off-year elections marked a Democratic resurgence, with sweeps in Virginia and New Jersey, progressive wins in New York City, and a favorable ballot measure on redistricting in California.

The results exceeded polling, which had shown much closer races in Virginia and New Jersey than actually materialized on Election Day. The clear over-performance has Democrats on the high of their lives as they make plans to leverage their 2025 wins into more challenging races in deep-red states.

However, reality often differs from our desires, and that much is true when analyzing the Democratic victories Tuesday. Rather than these races signaling a broad party revival, the data reveals just how uniquely flawed former Vice President Kamala Harris was as a candidate. (Sign up for Mary Rooke’s weekly newsletter here!)

Harris’s 2024 loss to President Donald Trump wasn’t just structural. Despite her peddling the narrative that she didn’t have enough time to get things moving for her to win. Her loss stemmed primarily from the fact that her personality was unpopular with voters due to messaging misfires that repelled key swing groups.

🚨NEW: Jon Stewart *STUNNED* as Kamala Harris claims she believes Biden “WAS FULLY COMPETENT TO SERVE”🚨

STEWART: “Do you really?”

HARRIS: “Yeah, I do.”

STEWART: “That surprises me, actually.” @DailyCaller pic.twitter.com/Pj0VmxS6HU

— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 30, 2025

Nationally, she underperformed former President Joe Biden by about 7 million votes. Her candidacy erased the gains Biden made in 2020 among Independents, giving Trump a 10-point swing from 2020. Harris couldn’t even court the never-Trump Republican voters. Despite holding rallies with anti-Trump Republicans like Liz Cheney, Trump still won the moderate vote by 5 points over Harris.

The Democratic wins can be explained by the fact that any candidate would have been preferable to Harris in 2024, most of their wins came in decidedly blue or purple states more favorable to Democratic candidates, and Republicans often perform terribly in off-year elections because a large portion of their constituency is made up of low-propensity voters. (ROOKE: There’s A Way To Clean Ourselves Of A Republican Bloodbath Before Midterms)

Still, Republicans will have to find a way to win without Trump on the ballot. The economy will be key in the 2026 midterm races. It would be unwise for Democrats to focus on their “wins” in 2025 as a blueprint for the midterms. In reality, these Democratic candidates were fortunate not to be weighed down by Harris’s unappealing personality.

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