Despite the media-manufactured momentum Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is receiving, CNN had to tell their viewers that former President Donald Trump is still not only in the race but could win in November.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down the realities of the 2024 presidential race, warning Harris’ supporters not to “rip open the champagne bottle” because the battle is far from over. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll puts Harris up over Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These swing states are must-wins for both candidates looking to win the White House on Nov. 5.
3 caution points for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
However, Enten told viewers it’s important to remember that Trump beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 when all the polls “underestimated” his support. (ROOKE: Conservatives’ Worst Election Nightmare Confirmed)
“I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before. So, August 13th, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? And this is in 2016 and 2020. Trump was [under]estimated both times around and by significant margins,” Enten said. “Take a look here. In 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lake battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one-off. Look at this. He was underestimated by five points on average. And of course, Kamala Harris’s advantage in those New York Times/Siena College polls were four points in each of these key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.”
CNN’s Harry Enten Warns Harris Fans Not To ‘Open The Champagne Bottle’ Yet As Trump ‘Very Much In This Ball Game’ pic.twitter.com/U8XbduhEAf
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 13, 2024
Enten pointed out, “Enthusiasm is not the same thing as going out to actually vote.” When he looked at voters who said they were sure they’d show up to the polls on Nov. 5, the picture didn’t look as positive for Harris. In May 2024, when President Joe Biden was still running, 62% of Democrat voters said they were certain they would vote at the polls in November. That number has dropped a point, with Harris leading the ticket. (ROOKE: Kamala’s Record Rears Its Ugly Head After She’s Caught Stealing From Trump)
BREAKING REPORT: Trump takes commanding 9 POINT LEAD over Harris on the economy in New York Times / Siena College poll.. pic.twitter.com/Me9PHcCMJM
— Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) August 11, 2024
The opposite is true for Trump. In May 2024, 58% of Republican voters said they were confident about showing up to vote. Now, 6o% of Republicans say they will actually cast a vote in November. (ROOKE: Vance Proved Why He’s Trump’s Greatest Wingman)
“The bottom line is this … If you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race,” Enten told viewers. “If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ball game based upon where he is right now. And compare that to where he was in prior years.”
I wrote last week on the polls showing Harris leading are oversampling Democratic voters. But this New York Times swing state poll oversampled Biden 2020 voters by 6 points.
For context, Biden carried MI by 2.8%, PA by 1.2%, and WI by 0.7%. Nowhere close to 6 points. pic.twitter.com/wuuRB5REka
— Jeremiah Poff (@JJ_Poff) August 12, 2024
The entire campaign rests on Republican voters feeling overwhelmed by the headlines of her “massive rallies” and celebrity endorsements. They want Republicans to feel demoralized so that voting feels futile. Americans can’t let that happen. Every time another poll finds Harris leading Trump, use it as fuel to vote. Whether you vote early, by mail, or on election day, it doesn’t matter. Have a plan and get it done. (ROOKE: Dems Running Voting Scheme Founded By Kamala Staffer In Swing State)
This race is far from over.
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