San Francisco’s Transit System Won’t Survive Without a New Sales Tax

We’ve been seeing this particular train wreck coming for at least a couple years now. The Bay Area Rapid Train system (BART) never recovered from the pandemic and the telecommuting that followed. The system got by on federal pandemic money for a few years but that is running out. Now the system is facing huge deficits that will require closing stations and cutting the number of trains unless a new source of revenue is found. The plan to save BART is a new sales tax for the counties where the trains run. Last October a plan was put in place to get the new sales tax on the ballot.

On Monday, Newsom signed Senate Bill 63 by state Sens. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, and Jesse Arreguin, D-Berkeley, which will authorize leaders in five Bay Area counties — Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara — to put a sales tax measure for transit on the ballot next year.

Set at a default rate of a half cent in each county except San Francisco, where the rate would rise to one cent, the tax could provide a critical funding reservoir for agencies that face widening deficits. With COVID emergency bailouts set to dry up, and ridership largely plateauing after an incremental recovery since the pandemic, officials at agencies say they have hit a fiscal cliff.

Beginning next year, Muni will confront a deficit of $322 million, while BART projects a funding gap of up to $400 million annually in 2027.

If the sales tax passes the system will survive. But that outcome isn’t guaranteed. Last week, BART announced a two-phase plan for balancing its budget without the new tax. And the cuts required look pretty dire.

BART has nailed down the ten stations that could close if voters decline to bail out the rail agency in November, a dire scenario that would gut service across the Bay Area.

Half of these potential casualties — Pittsburg Center, North Concord, Orinda, South San Francisco and San Bruno — lie on BART’s popular yellow line. The blue line from Dublin/Pleasanton to Daly City would lose two stations, Castro Valley and West Dublin/Pleasanton. South Hayward and Warm Springs would be dropped from the orange line, and the Oakland International Airport connector from the Coliseum station would also shutter. Staff would implement this “phase one” service plan as early as next January.

Perhaps more concerning than this 63% reduction in service hours is the prospect of BART stopping all service at 9 p.m. every day, pulling the plug on essential transport for anyone who works a swing shift, or students with night classes, or revelers who want to buy a few drinks at a bar and not worry about driving home. During the day, trains would run every 30 minutes, as opposed to the 20 or fewer minute waits to which riders are now accustomed.

Those cuts to stations and service would be necessary by January of 2027, less than a year from now. And that’s just phase one. If phase one isn’t enough to balance the budget, phase two could start as soon as the summer of 2027. In phase two, another five stations would close and there would be additional cuts to service hours. On top of that, there would be layoffs and hikes to fares. Here’s what phase two would look like.

The blackmail by @SFBART is getting intense.

If you don’t vote for their transit tax in November, they may close 30% of their stations and cut service hours by 70%.

I’m sure third parties could come up with far less painful reductions. pic.twitter.com/PDBbhBrkWc

— Marc Joffe (@marcjoffe) February 6, 2026

Essentially, this would reduce the system back to the size it was in 1994.

All of this is really just a guess. BART doesn’t know what will happen to ridership if they cut this many stations and reduce hours and hike fares. It seems likely that all of that will reduce ridership, creating another shortfall the following year. And that could in turn require additional cuts or more fare hikes or both.

In short, this sounds a lot like the doom loop that everyone was talking about a few years ago. Fewer trains means fewer people downtown, which means more struggling businesses in the city. Fewer businesses means less income to the city which would also have to make cuts to services like police or homeless services. And little by little things start to get worse, making downtown less attractive and starting the whole cycle over again.

There’s probably an element of scaring the voters happening here. By painting a grim picture, you let people know how desperately they need to pass this new tax. State Sen. Scott Weiner wants everyone to know this is a dire situation.

If we take no action — if inertia sets in — BART will essentially collapse & Muni, Caltrain & AC Transit will dramatically scale back service.

We must not let this happen. It’s why I authored a new law authorizing a November regional revenue measure to keep transit strong. pic.twitter.com/qD8iLBvhE4

— Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) February 6, 2026

But politics aside, that $400 million deficit is real. If the tax doesn’t pass, major cuts to public transportation will happen and the city of San Francisco will take a big hit. 

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