Schrödinger’s Trade Deal With the UK

There is a left-wing meme being pushed that President Trump’s trade deal with the UK is a sham. 

As I peruse X to keep up with the news and the Narrative™, NeverTrumpers are trying to pour cold water on Trump’s talk of a deal. It’s for obvious reasons: the more it looks like Trump’s tariffs are mostly about moving renegotiations along with the rest of the world, the more the stock markets will celebrate and the jitters that ordinary Americans feel about the economic future will subside. 

BREAKING: President Trump just announced that the UK will now remove numerous trade barriers against American products and fast-track our imports through their customs.

“The deal includes billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in… pic.twitter.com/ShzUAyTIB9

— George (@BehizyTweets) May 8, 2025

Bad news is the only “good” news for the left. 

How it’s playing across the pond: “US President Donald Trump declared on social media the announcement to come later would be a ‘major trade deal’ – it won’t be…. What is announced today is likely to be only the bare bones of a narrow agreement.” pic.twitter.com/ocC2Dmenxo

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) May 8, 2025

You can expect the Pravda Media to parrot the left’s talking points because, well, that is what they do. 

Q: Are you overstating the reach and significance of this deal because you need it?

Trump: It’s a good deal for us both. This is a maxed out deal, not like you said it, really incorrectly pic.twitter.com/fqswrbhv7F

— FactPost (@factpostnews) May 8, 2025

I freely admit that I am in no position to judge the deal, and nobody outside the Trump administration or 10 Downing Street is in a position to judge how comprehensive it is or how it will change the balance of trade between the US and the UK. We have some broad strokes, but nobody knows exactly how it will all shake out. 

President Trump posts a graphic outlining some of the broad principles of the UK Trade deal just agreed to. pic.twitter.com/wjGZdcojFQ

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) May 8, 2025

I also expect that, until every I is dotted and T is crossed, you could argue that the “deal” is not fully complete. You could also argue that we will never know anything for sure until the heat death of the universe, because things can always change. 

The big problem with the left’s narrative is that attacking the deal will require not just going after Trump, but also trashing the UK Prime Minister. 

Trump’s “big” trade deal is with the UK:
– It’s a framework not a deal
– They’re our 11th largest trading partner
– They’re only 3% of US trade (97% to go)
– They *already* charge average tariffs of only 1% (limited upside)

It’s a photo op, with little macroeconomic significance pic.twitter.com/ZATQDtckE4

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) May 8, 2025

Calling Trump a liar happens every day that ends in “Y.” If the media starts going after every single person involved with the deal and relying on “experts” who don’t know a thing, they are burning credibility for absolutely no return. 

Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer has secured a first-of-a-kind deal with the US — saving thousands of jobs across the country 🇬🇧🤝🇺🇸

Boosting British businesses.

Protecting British industry.

Delivering for working people. pic.twitter.com/mM4vFvktnf

— UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet) May 8, 2025

No doubt we will hear that Starmer is bragging about the deal for political reasons–no doubt true, since he is a politician. We will hear that it doesn’t matter. We will hear all sorts of things that, in the end, are nothing but noise because it all sounds like sour grapes coming from people who seem disappointed at what both Trump and Starmer are calling a big win. 

Trump looks like a winner, and the naysayers come out losers. 

On a substantive note, I find it interesting that the 10% US tariff will remain, and I am pretty sure that this will be the case in most or all of the trade deals Trump will make. It is both how he will square the circle–he will indeed have imposed tariffs on foreign goods and increase tax revenue through tariffs, while also increasing the amount of trade and making it freer. 

Call it the price of entry into the US market, which represents 40% of the consumer purchasing in the world. It’s a cover charge. We could argue whether that is a good deal for American consumers, who will be paying some or all of that as prices readjust, but the price increases will be modest (after all, wholesale prices are a fraction of the retail price, so it will not result in a 10% price increase on foreign goods), the revenue real, and the marginal incentive to invest in the US to avoid the tariffs will be real. 

Even if, as the critics whinge, this is more a framework than a signed deal, it really IS a deal and a big win for Trump. It sets a model for future deals and will calm the markets. Trump needs to boost optimism, and no amount of naysaying will outweigh the fact that Trump will gain momentum.