Six Primaries That May Determine The Future Of The GOP After Trump

As Republicans seek to maintain control of Congress in 2026, several key races are poised to play a decisive role in determining whether the party can hold its majorities — and whether alignment with Trump is still enough to motivate GOP voters in midterm elections.

In Kentucky, Trump will test his grip on the party by attempting to unseat a member of Congress who he deems insufficiently loyal to his presidency.

Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, the libertarian-leaning Republican who has represented the district since 2012, has repeatedly clashed with Trump, including his work with Democrats pushing for the release of Jeffrey Epstein files, opposing U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and voting against Trump’s signature legislation the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”

The Daily Caller first reported in June that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) was actively searching for a primary challenger to Massie, signaling growing outside interest in the race.

Trump is throwing his support behind former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer Ed Gallrein. Gallrein previously ran for a state Senate seat in 2024 but lost the primary to Aaron Reed, another former Navy SEAL. He now says he is running for Congress because he believes the district’s representative should focus on advancing the president’s policy agenda.(RELATED: Trump Knows Which Person He Wants Running Against Thomas Massie)

🚨EXCLUSIVE: AIPAC seeking out challengers to unseat Rep. Thomas Massie.

Read more ⬇️ @DailyCaller pic.twitter.com/VRmBJ28ePv

— Ashley Brasfield (@BrasfieldAshley) June 26, 2025

Another Kentucky race has quickly become a high-stakes Republican primary. The contest to succeed former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell features businessman Nate Morris, Rep. Andy Barr, and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron. The race has evolved from early squabbles over McConnell’s legacy to a broader test of MAGA loyalty.

Cameron entered the race minutes after McConnell announced in February 2025 that he would not seek reelection. Cameron enjoyed Trump’s endorsement in the Republican 2023 gubernatorial primary before his unsuccessful bid to unseat Democratic Governor Andy Beshear, and has identified himself as the first elected official in Kentucky to endorse Trump’s re-election bid for president in the 2024 cycle.

Kentuckians are ready for America First leadership in the U.S. Senate. I’ll bring it. pic.twitter.com/vosJKOR5G9

— Daniel Cameron (@DanielCameronKY) July 18, 2025

Barr, who has represented Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District since 2013, entered the race shortly after Cameron announced. Barr has similarly highlighted his alignment with the president, serving as chair for Trump’s 2024 Kentucky primary campaign. He ended the third fundraising quarter with roughly four times the cash-on-hand of Cameron and Morris combined.

Morris, a businessman who built a waste management company, has positioned himself as an anti-establishment outsider appealing to Trump’s populist base and announced his candidacy on Donald Trump Jr. ‘s podcast, earning his support. He has repeatedly criticized McConnell while portraying his rivals as the former majority leader’s lackeys. Morris vowed at Fancy Farm — an annual political fundraising picnic that effectively kicks off campaign season in Kentucky — to “trash” McConnell’s legacy.

Cameron and Barr have responded by distancing themselves from McConnell, but without lobbing the more aggressive attacks seen from Morris. Both have also pointed to reports that Morris implemented DEI and ESG policies at his company as proof that he is a political shapeshifter.

Morris has raised over $4 million in the first three months of his campaign, including a $3 million personal contribution, making him a largely self-funded candidate, according to a Courier Journal report.

Mid-October polling released by the Barr and Cameron campaigns shows Cameron leading the field by double digits, with Barr in second and Morris trailing behind, suggesting the race has narrowed to a two-person contest.

The Republican Texas Senate primary has emerged as a three-way battle between Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt, with Paxton and Hunt casting themselves as anti-establishment outsiders challenging Cornyn’s long tenure and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) backing. (RELATED: Wesley Hunt Shakes Up Brutal Texas Senate Race)

Paxton initially led in early polls but saw his support dip after news broke of his pending divorce from State Sen. Angela Paxton. Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows Paxton narrowly leading Cornyn, 32% to 27%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt in third at 23%. That leaves all three candidates well short of the 50% threshold required to secure the Republican nomination outright in Texas. If no candidate reaches 50% plus one vote in the March 3 primary, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff.

Cornyn’s political operation reported raising roughly $3.4 million in the third quarter. Only $910,000 flowed directly to his campaign, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. Paxton raised $1.3 million for his campaign in that same time period, buoying his team’s hopes that he can outlast Cornyn in a runoff.

With Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett entering the Democratic Senate primary, some Republicans are less concerned that a Cornyn primary loss would endanger the seat, arguing her candidacy could give the GOP a viable path to victory regardless of its nominee. (RELATED: Jasmine Crockett’s Vain Senate Run Already Tearing Democrats Apart)

The Georgia Republican primary is intensifying ahead of the 2026 Senate race, as candidates seek to oust Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and build on Trump’s 2024 victory in the state. The field includes former college football coach and attorney Derek Dooley, backed by current Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, along with GOP Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter.

Collins and Carter are running as staunch MAGA loyalists, and with Trump yet to endorse, the primary has become a flashpoint in the Trump–Kemp rivalry.

Collins has branded himself a “Conservative Workhorse,” highlighting his small-business background and alignment with Trump, though he and a top aide are under House Ethics Committee investigation.

Carter, meanwhile, has cast himself as a “MAGA Warrior,” targeting Ossoff in ads and arguing the senator is out of step with Georgia voters who backed Trump in 2024.

An Oct. 31 Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Collins leading the GOP field with 30% support, followed by Carter at 20% and Dooley at 12%, with nearly 40% undecided.

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was reportedly toying with the idea of joining the race, but was dissuaded by polls showing she couldn’t win — a seemingly central part of her public blow-up with Trump and her decision to resign from Congress in the new year. (RELATED: How Did Marjorie Taylor Greene End Up Here?) 

In South Carolina, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has served in the Senate since 2003 and is widely viewed as the establishment choice, is facing a primary challenge from conservative lawyer and Project 2025 writer Paul Dans and Greenville businessman and appliance center owner Mark Lynch.

Arguments that Graham is not pro-Trump enough may fall flat, though, given Trump has already endorsed his reelection bid and cohosted a golf tournament and fundraiser with the senator.

What a great day playing golf with President Trump! So much fun today at the Trump Graham Golf Classic, that will benefit the Republican cause greatly.

President @realDonaldTrump was very generous with his time and I appreciate all who made this hugely successful.

Thank you,… pic.twitter.com/VrxhZPGYFe

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) November 15, 2025

The 70-year-old incumbent also enjoys strong in-state Republican backing, with South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and Governor Henry McMaster serving as honorary co-chairs of his campaign, an endorsement tied in part to Graham’s robust cash position, according to an AP News report.

The Republican gubernatorial primary in the Palmetto state, meanwhile, is a crowded race to succeed Republican Governor McMaster, with candidates competing to prove who is the strongest MAGA advocate and the most likely to earn the coveted Trump endorsement.

Candidates include McMaster’s current lieutenant governor, Pamela Evette, and Attorney General Alan Wilson, Republican South Carolina State Sen. Josh Kimbrell, along with U.S. Reps. Ralph Norman and Nancy Mace.

Evette is running as an “America First” conservative businesswoman, highlighting her private-sector experience, early support for Trump, and continuity with the McMaster administration. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette To Throw Her Hat Into South Carolina Governor’s Race)

Wilson, the nation’s longest-serving attorney general and son of Rep. Joe Wilson, is running as a “battle-tested conservative,” emphasizing his record as a prosecutor, combat veteran, and defender of Trump-era policies.

Mace, arguably the most biggest name in the race, frequently attacks what she calls “woke” policies and has branded herself as “Trump in high heels.” She has positioned herself as a candidate willing to challenge the establishment but has faced a series of public controversies and staff turnover.

Mace has repeatedly targeted both Evette and Wilson, but her attacks have been especially sharp against Wilson. Mace has labeled him a “pedophile protector,” criticizing his record on crimes against women and children — including cases she cited in an infamous February 2025 House-floor speech involving her ex-fiancé. But Mace’s ex-fiancé has since filed a lawsuit claiming she fabricated sexual assault allegations against him, according to a WCSC report.

She recently made headlines for allegedly cursing at police officers at the Charleston International Airport and obsessively tweeting about how the police allegedly mistreated her. Further, a senior adviser resigned from her 2026 gubernatorial campaign on Dec. 1, citing his loyalty to Trump, marking a trend of high staff turnover in her orbit. (RELATED: Longtime Advisor To Nancy Mace Resigns Over Loyalty To Trump)

A November Wick poll showed Wilson leading the primary at 22.2%, followed by Evette at 15.7%, Norman at 12%, Mace at 10.5%, and Kimbrell at 1.9%, with over one-third undecided. The poll served as the first major snapshot following Mace’s October 2025 airport incident.

Norman, a prominent member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, was the only sitting member of Congress to endorse former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley over Trump in the Republican presidential primary.

These six races underscore a central question for Republicans heading into 2026: whether loyalty to Trump remains the party’s most powerful political currency, or whether voters are beginning to more heavily weigh experience, electability, and independence. The GOP’s ability to balance its new populist base with broader electoral appeal may ultimately determine whether it can hold its control of Congress.