Surprise! House Passes ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ In Overnight Vote

What’s been the biggest surprise since the start of the year? Speaker Mike Johnson’s winning streak in the House has to be near the top, if not at the very top. Despite having one of the narrowest majorities in congressional history and perhaps the most fractious caucus ever, Johnson keeps piling up wins.

With the help of Donald Trump, of course. But that’s true of any House Speaker whose party controls the White House.

Johnson racked up another surprising win earlier this morning, as House Republicans finally took “yes” for an answer on the “big, beautiful” reconciliation package. It passed by a single vote:

House Republicans passed their “big, beautiful” reconciliation bill early Thursday morning, sending to the Senate a filibuster-proof package that would deliver the major elements of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, from tax cuts and border security to lifting the nation’s borrowing limit.

The 215-214 vote capped weeks of grueling negotiations behind the scenes between House leaders and warring factions of the Republican conference. While moderates in high-tax states sought additional tax relief, hardcore conservatives sought deeper cuts to federal spending, particularly on Medicaid, and a faster repeal on clean energy tax credits they dubbed the “green new scam.”

A 42-page manager’s amendment, released just hours before the final vote, gave both factions enough of what they wanted to turn undecided and dissenting lawmakers into supporters of the bill. While more than a dozen Republicans had threatened to vote down the bill in recent weeks, almost all agreed to support the final version of the sweeping package.

Two House Republicans voted against it: Warren Davidson (R-OH) and of course Thomas Massie (R-KY). Andrew Gabarino (R-NY) objected to accelerating the end of tax incentives for green energy and sat out the vote rather than cast a nay, which allowed the bill to pass on the floor. 

That was enough for Trump to celebrate:

The Bill includes MASSIVE Tax CUTS, No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, Tax Deductions when you purchase an American Made Vehicle, along with strong Border Security measures, Pay Raises for our ICE and Border Patrol Agents, Funding for the Golden Dome, “TRUMP Savings Accounts” for newborn babies, and much more! Great job by Speaker Mike Johnson, and the House Leadership, and thank you to every Republican who voted YES on this Historic Bill! Now, it’s time for our friends in the United States Senate to get to work, and send this Bill to my desk AS SOON AS POSSIBLE! There is no time to waste. The Democrats have lost control of themselves, and are aimlessly wandering around, showing no confidence, grit, or determination. They have forgotten their landslide loss in the Presidential Election, and are warped in the past, hoping someday to revive Open Borders for the World’s criminals to be able to pour into our Country, men to be able to play in women’s sports, and transgender for everybody. They don’t realize that these things, and so many more like them, will NEVER AGAIN happen!

Now what? The bill now goes to the Senate, which can either (a) pass it as it stands, or (b) modify it and send it back to the House. Either option only requires a simple majority as the bill will operate under reconciliation, which means the filibuster cannot be applied to stop it. Republicans have 53 seats in the Senate and should be able to pass whatever they want. The problem, though, is that some Senate Republicans have publicly opposed parts of the House bill, and there may not be enough votes for option (a).

For now, anyway. The Washington Post expects Trump to return to Capitol Hill for more arm-twisting in the upper chamber:

Members of both chambers expect the measure to undergo extensive revisions in the Senate, where similar tensions could force major policy shifts that would likely reignite ideological feuds among congressional Republicans.

The House legislation, though, was a product of Trump’s creation — and execution. Many of the proposals were ripped directly from the president’s campaign rallies. No tax on tips, then candidate-Trump said, came at the suggestion of a waitress. No tax on overtime soon followed in stump speeches. Another campaign pledge, ending taxes on Social Security benefits, did not make the legislation; Republican lawmakers swapped it out for a $4,000 bonus to the standard deduction for seniors. …

As recently as Wednesday, the White House warned that a GOP rejection of his bill would amount to “the ultimate betrayal.” Disagreements among Republicans in the lower chamber led to a marathon committee hearing in the House that lasted nearly 24 hours. That afternoon, Trump summoned hard-line budget hawks to the White House with instructions to toe the line. Hours later, the holdouts flipped.

That sets this up as a major test for John Thune, the man who succeeded Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader. Can he find 51 ayes for the bill as it stands now, or even 50 plus J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaker? Rand Paul is likely going to oppose this bill on the basis of its impact on long-term deficits, so Thune can only lose a couple more and still get this across the finish line without going back to the House. Trump may not have much impact on Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, so he may only be able to help Thune get to 50 at best. Stay tuned.