The Humiliation of Alan Lichtman, Credentialed Idiot

Alan Lichtman has always been a jackass. 

Lichman is famous for his “13 Keys to the White House,” which he claims are a foolproof method for predicting the outcome of presidential elections.  

For those of you unfamiliar with the “13 Keys,” it isn’t insane to think that they, in themselves, are not a good thumbnail way to make a reasonable prediction about the likelihood that one candidate or another will win a presidential election. The keys are:

The 13 keys are:

1. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious primary challenger to the incumbents nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign challenger..
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent enacted major policy changes during his first term in office.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.
10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Of course, it’s true that a better economy will make it more likely that the party in power will win, especially if the candidate is an incumbent and can claim credit. Similarly, a “charismatic” candidate will more likely win than not. 

If you think about it, most of our “gut” feelings are based on evaluations that mirror the keys. “Trump will win because the economy sucks” was a common feeling. 

So in principle, if not 100% predictive, the keys are a decent heuristic to use to figure out whether a candidate faces headwinds or is aided by tailwinds in the election. 

The problem with the “keys” is that many are subjective. Lichtman was sure that first Biden, then Harris would win because things are Hunky Dorey in America, and Trump is a meanie. 

Where the Keys stand NOW as detailed on the 13 Keys Tracker. See the charting below. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, where we detail every Key and the criteria for turning them. I haven’t made my official prediction, I will sometime after the Democratic convention. pic.twitter.com/Ie1GskF1IM

— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) August 16, 2024

Lichtman was so certain that Harris would win the election that he proudly trumpeted the claim, even getting into a famous spitting match with Nate Silver earlier in the year. Silver’s point, which was so obviously true that it shouldn’t have been necessary to say, was that if you applied the “keys” dispassionately, Trump was more likely to win than not. 

I’ve spent way too much time on this and have a lot of receipts from how you’ve applied your keys in the past! At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that’s what the keys say. Unless you’re admitting they’re totally arbitrary? https://t.co/9QqlRUCaqt

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024

This is where things get interesting to me. Lichtman has had a strong following for years based on his relentless self-promotion and an ability to tweak, after the fact, his evaluation of the keys to make him look like Nostradamus. 

like I said, Allan Lichtman is the nerd that more manly nerds, like Nate Silver, bully for sport https://t.co/NLi4hpIhLp

— Ace of Spades (@AceofSpadesHQ) November 20, 2024

In his fight with Silver, Lichtman’s evidence that he was right and Silver wrong was a classic: “I am a credentialed academic.”

Nate. you don’t have the faintest idea about how to apply my keys. You are neither a historian or a political scientist or have any academic credentials of any kind. Remember you were wrong when you said the keys could early predict Obama’s reelection.

— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) September 27, 2024

This is a perfect encapsulation of the elite attitude. Lichtman, a “Distinguished” professor at American University, cannot comprehend the idea that he is ever wrong and a prole could ever be right. 

Which gets us to his humiliation yesterday on Piers Morgan’s show, which is glorious and led to his departure from the critical world of Twitter/X.

This is the best clip of the 2024 election aftermath

Harry Sisson, Cenk Uygur, Allan Lichtman and Juan Williams

Cenk starts scorching Lichtman, who then lashes out and calls Cenk “blasphemous” for questioning him.

I cannot stop laughing 🤣

pic.twitter.com/jVPw582Z7a

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 20, 2024

Lichtman oozes pretentiousness. Cen Uygur, a smart populist leftist, eviscerates him and Lichtman goes nuts. But how he goes nuts shows exactly why the establishment is crumbling. 

Blasphemy! As if Lichtman is a god because he is a professor and has written books. Cenk is just a political commentator!

Alan Lichtman melts down and storms off after a reporter mocks his failed election prediction pic.twitter.com/JI2apbE4tB

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) November 15, 2024

In fact, Lichtman blames Americans for being too dumb to follow his keys, rather than himself for completely misunderstanding what Americans thought. 

Alan Lichtman, an elderly pollster who can’t figure out that his methods are outdated…

Blames Elon Musk for him being incredibly wrong about the 2024 election.

Notice how experts never take responsibility for being wrong?pic.twitter.com/gLNeqg6UGC

— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) November 14, 2024

Lichtman is departing Twitter/X for Bluesky, the liberal bubble Twitter/X mirror app, so he can avoid the hoi polloi. This is exactly what the establishment is doing to itself. The more encased in a bubble, the more the transnational elite openly expresses its contempt for the real world, the less they will be able to influence it. 

He should write an op-ed after the election’s called for The NY Times or WaPo titled “The Keys Are Gold. Nate Is Just Silver.” with this picture pic.twitter.com/zuLyQkModl

— 𝖒 (@cat_lady_gaga) November 2, 2024

Censorship, coercion, and totalitarian repression has become necessary to maintain the elite’s power because their ability to understand and persuade ordinary people is fading. 

Nobody cares that you are a professor. In fact, it is a strike against you. 

We aren’t heretics; the elite are false gods.