The Most Important Election in the Country This Year?

People don’t tend to pay much attention to state Supreme Court races, which is too bad. No matter which state we are talking about, Supreme Courts have enormous power to define the law, and those decisions are as often as not driven by ideology as much as legal acumen. 

The biggest problem? Nobody knows who the judges are and what they stand for. Voter turnout is low, and when incumbents are on the ballot, they almost always get reelected. Here in Minnesota we never get a choice who the incumbents are, because the long-established tradition is for judges to retire in off years to let the governor decide who gets on the court through appointment, and by the next election the judge is an incumbent and automatically wins. 

Example from the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections.

We have absolute political activist, radical left judges who are staging nothing short of a Judicial Insurrection trying to elevate themselves over the powers as declared in our Constitution and rule our country.

If we lose…

— Rich Nickelson (@RichNickelson) March 13, 2025

Wisconsin has judicial elections that get more attention than most, and after a few years of conservative control of the Court, a liberal won the last election and dramatically swung the Court Left. It really matters, because issues that impact national politics–like redistricting–can change the balance of power not just in Wisconsin but for the whole country because Congress is so closely divided. 

That’s why the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s race–which will be decided on April 1, is attracting huge money from around the country. It may turn out to be the most expensive judicial race in history, with campaign war chests more common in Senate and gubernatorial elections. 

The Democratic- and Republican-aligned candidates running for the Wisconsin Supreme Court are headed toward a tight race in the first major election for the battleground state since November.

Why It Matters

The Supreme Court race could have implications for issues ranging from abortion to redistricting for the Midwestern state, which is roughly divided evenly between Democrats and Republicans.

The April 1 election will be a critical test for both parties in a state that backed President Donald Trump in last year’s election, while still reelecting Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin. Democrats will seek to capitalize on growing frustration with the Trump administration, while Republicans are hoping the voters who supported Trump in November will come out again in an off-year spring election.

Elon Musk-funded groups have spent $10 million backing Brad Schimel, the Associated Press reported.

So where do things stand? The short answer is that the race appears to be tied according to the polling–that there are multiple polls from national pollsters shows you how important the race is, since I have yet to see even a local, low-quality poll ever in Minnesota Supreme Court races, and even few Congressional races rate even a single poll–and it’s clear that the race will be decided based solely on which party can mobilize its base. 

Henrik M. Schatzinger, professor of political science at Ripon College, told Newsweek it’s a “highly competitive race.”

“I think the party that does the best job of mobilizing its voters will win the seat on the state Supreme Court,” he said.

Democrats appear to have “very high” enthusiasm amid growing frustration with the firing of federal worker and other cuts, Schatzinger said.

Republicans may be motivated because they view Trump’s decisions as overdue and are ready for an “ideological shift on the state Supreme Court,” he added.

“At the end of the day, I think there is a good chance that this race will go down in history as the most expensive one ever for a seat on Wisconsin’s highest court,” Schatzinger said, noting the most recent Supreme Court race in 2023 broke fundraising records.

Democrats have a natural advantage when it comes to “downballot” races–many voters consider races other than Senate and governor picks to be uninteresting and they generally know little and care less about who wins. “Redistricting” may be important, but few people have any idea what that means or why they should care, and have little inclination to even find out. Process issues are too complicated and boring to move people to vote. 

But public employees tend to vote how they are told–for the Left–and are easily mobilized, especially now that government workers for the first time feel their jobs are at risk. To call them “highly motivated” is an understatement. To them, this race could be existential, just as DOGE is at the federal level. 

Brad Schimel, the conservative, has an ace in the hole, and hopefully he can play it well to mobilize his voters: his opponent, Susan Crawford, is remarkably soft on crime, as in letting rapists slide with light sentences for horrific crimes. Her record and by her admission she likes to give the minimum sentences to criminals. Even if you rape a child. 

Susan Crawford defending her weak sentence of Curtis O’Brien and calling it a “successful” sentence. He raped a 5 year old girl repeatedly and is already out. “I don’t regret that sentence.”

He got four years. The state wanted 10. He could have gotten 60. By saying she applied… pic.twitter.com/EnaMp2zrVH

— Wisconsin Right Now (@wisconsin_now) March 13, 2025

If you do the crime, you won’t do the time if you are lucky enough to face her. 

Here is the third time a rattled and peeved Susan Crawford defended her weak sentences of Curtis O’Brien and Kevin Welton, child molesters who are already free. Notice how she keeps interrupting Schimel but he doesn’t lose his cool. pic.twitter.com/eIDNk1v4sW

— Wisconsin Right Now (@wisconsin_now) March 13, 2025

Obviously most people don’t think a pedophile rapist should be given the “minimum sentence to protect the public,” whatever that means in practice. Pedophiles and rapists are not burglars, and reoffend at high rates and, by the way, deserve the harshest punishments allowed by law in any case. I would be thrilled to pull the lever or trigger to execute a man who raped a child, without a moment’s hesitation. 

No doubt I am hardly the only one. What kind of person would you be if you didn’t want to harshly punish such a man? If you object to the death penalty, you still would want to harshly punish the worst offenders, right?

Politicians and judges who jump to the defense of criminals are a plague on our society, and this should be an 80-20 issue. 

But will voters even look into the candidates enough to know the difference? That is what all that money is about. Democrats will focus on driving out the radical leftists and especially the public employees, while Republicans will hammer the crime issue to motivate the ordinary voter. 

It will be a squeaker of a race. Let’s hope the common-sense voter gets out to cast a ballot and knows what he is doing.