The Young Latino Swing to Trump Is Real

For all the bellyaching, posturing, proselytizing, and threats of violence both implied and precise, the immigration enforcement operations that Trump’s Department of Homeland Security has been running across the country don’t seem to be having an impact on at least one surprising segment of the voting population – young, Latino voters, especially males.

Even before Trump was officially sworn in and Tom Homan’s leash came off, there were signs that an inexplicable rightward shift was happening. For example, as much as it had to hurt them, NBC’s national exit polls on Election Day had big red warning flags among the typically loyal Democratic demographic for nervous Harris supporters.

What the hell was going on with all that red in the Hispanic categories? Hispanics/Latinos were polling almost dead even, Trump v Harris in every age group, when there should have been some daylight between the two. The tabs on the economy and immigration were overwhelmingly Trump triumphs.

As more and more voting rolls get cleaned up, as more illegals are moved off of them and/or completely out of the country, and the opportunities for elections fraud shrink, Democrats are finding that the game has tightened up significantly.

In 2008 I stood in line to vote in San Diego. The couple two ahead of me told the poll worker they had no papers. She said that’s okay. That was 2008.

— Cracker (@TomSwanson15) August 20, 2025

And that the registrations garnered by their impressive Get Out the Vote machine, which has handed them victories year after year, are no longer indicative of Democratic votes in the bank. Some of the younger voters who would blithely sign Democratic registration and dutifully pull the lever when it came time to enter a booth now do so for the Republican on the ballot.

That’s money wasted to get their signature, which Democrats no longer have to spare.

Democrats found out that they have been spending money registering young Black and Latino voters who have been voting Republican. pic.twitter.com/3cfLDBnP3A

— Big Fish (@BigFish3000) August 20, 2025

It’s also hilarious.

Sadly for the Donks, they can’t stop the bleeding because it’s happening everywhere. The NYT calls it a ‘stampede away’ from the Democratic Party. Surely, that has to hurt.

…The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too, according to a new analysis of voter registration data by The New York Times. The analysis used voter registration data compiled by L2, a nonpartisan data firm.

Few measurements reflect the luster of a political party’s brand more clearly than the choice by voters to identify with it — whether they register on a clipboard in a supermarket parking lot, at the Department of Motor Vehicles or in the comfort of their own home.

And fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to be Democrats.

In fact, for the first time since 2018, more new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year.

All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. (In the remaining 20 states, voters do not register with a political party.) Republicans gained 2.4 million.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans (props here to the amazing work of Scott Presler and his crew) are drawing close to parity with Democratic registrations, something I never thought I’d see.

PENNSYLVANIA INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES, 8/25
(1/2) pic.twitter.com/WgnbsyFa1f

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) August 25, 2025

In Kentucky, long a Democratic stronghold, the GOP is a rising force…

That (GOP) plurality is now 198K. Reps until recently have outregistered Inds, and Dems are steadily shedding voters. This past month, however, Inds again outregistered Reps 1,867-1,467 voters, while Dems lost another 1,128 (this yr alone, Dems have lost 112,237 voters).
(2/2) pic.twitter.com/SgwzsWgsRV

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) September 1, 2025

…while deepest deep blue Louisiana is starting to take on a purplish hue.

LOUISIANA PARTY REGISTRATION CHANGES

The historically dominant Dems keep losing registrants nearly every month,thus diluting the state’s Dem voter reg plurality from 225K to 43K Dem in 4 years’ time-it’s possible for GOP vtr reg to surpass Dem reg next year (Reps
(1/3)

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) September 1, 2025

But nowhere is the Democratic Party’s reliance on and the panic over the shift of young Latinos away from it more apparent than in California, and nowhere are they more clueless about how to fix it.

…Barajas isn’t looking for an argument over President Donald Trump — he dodges those discussions enough with his own right-leaning relatives — but he has noticed some things. In addition to seeing some Mexican-Americans unengaged from politics and voting, Barajas has observed other newer Hispanic voters, like his male cousins under 25, shifting right.

“They turned 21 and got concealed carry permits,” he said. “They listen to Joe Rogan, they’re into guns and they voted for Trump.”

Those young men typify a seismic shift that happened all across California last fall. A Chronicle analysis found that all over the state, from Fremont to Fresno, places that were low turnout, relatively young, working-class and, most importantly, were heavily Latino shifted most sharply to the right.

The little inland valley town profiled in the piece voted for Harris, but by a narrow margin, some 36 points different than what Biden had managed in 2020. 

People were stunned.

…The Chronicle’s analysis found that across California, the single most important demographic trait that correlated with a shift to Trump was the Latino share of the population. That finding flies against some social science research that stresses the importance of other factors —  things like population density, whether most voters were born in the U.S. and even how educated they are.

What I thought was a telling line in the article is something I’m not sure they even realize they wrote, and it’s surely something today’s Democratic Party, as beholden to the radical progressives as it is, will be able to deal with – Latino voters see themselves as AMERICANS.

…Latino voters, Madrid said, are increasingly generic Americans. More specifically, they’re starting to resemble American voters of their own socioeconomic cohort. And because Latinos are disproportionately younger, less college educated and likelier to consume information on social media, they’re also likelier to adopt the voting habits of people in those segments.

All of those kinds of voters are moving right, and Latinos form a good chunk of all those blocs. In 2020, it was already clear that those voters were favoring Trump in South Texas, South Florida and even the Northeast.

‘They’re starting to resemble.’ ‘Are increasingly generic.’

AMERICANS

How about them apples? They’re not Mexican flag-waving radicals generation after generation.

They’re AMERICAN, like the rest of us AMERICANS. They personify the melting pot, assimilation, and patriotic concept this country has thrived on, which is a total anathema to the societal race-baiters and victim-class grifters who populate and run the Democratic party.

How does a LatinX Dem reach these people who don’t want to be Hispanics first? How does a David Hogg or AOC or Barack Obama cultivate young voters who want to earn their dreams (and may be well on their way to it already) with promises of equity, handouts, rage, trans-rights, and race-based perpetual grievances?

They can’t. They have nothing to say, no platform that appeals to these folks.

They may not be veterinarians, but they know what a dog is. Just as they know there’s only one sex capable of giving birth.

The jobs they work at don’t need to have wages depressed by illegals doing it for less, and doing other things like crime and using benefits that everyone pays for.

Democrats aren’t big on the #mathz, just the giveaways. These folks have to do the math every day that keeps them proudly and independently afloat.

“2024 showed Democrats that demographics no longer spell the party’s destiny, as Latino voters drifted significantly toward Republicans and Black male voters moved slightly rightward.” pic.twitter.com/H1lUrz0WdN

— Brian Doherty (@BDOH) August 25, 2025

The Democrats in the little California town are confident the tide will swing back.

If Trump gets the economy rolling and keeps us out of a shooting war?

Then again, the CA economy is built on illegals, and so what’s good for the nation as a whole with the ongoing ICE enforcement and deportation might not hold true for Newsom’s gruesome kingdom.

Men, from young guys to Latino and Black voters, are registering Republican in droves, says the NYTimes in a new report.

The 2024 data shows a stark shift in all 30 states tracked. In 2020, 49% of newly registered male voters chose Democrats; by 2024, that figure dropped to 39%.…

— Lisa Britton (@LisaBritton) August 24, 2025

…The 2024 data shows a stark shift in all 30 states tracked. In 2020, 49% of newly registered male voters chose Democrats; by 2024, that figure dropped to 39%. The Dems have a lot of work to do to address why guys are turning away and if they want to close the gap. 

Do you think it’s even possible? From the responses to many of my posts, I’m not sure…

I’d normally say ‘good luck to them’, but I wouldn’t mean it.

Selfishly, I like things just the way they are.

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