Tomorrow Could Bring Clarity About the Future of Hamas in Gaza

More Israeli hostages were released over the weekend. It was another scene on the edge of chaos.

Palestinian militants surround hostage Arbel Yehoud on the day they hand her to the International Committee of the Red Cross as part of a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Khan Younis. More photos of the week: https://t.co/YxQrhMKyWi 📷 Ramadan Abed pic.twitter.com/dTMOovXLfN

— Reuters Pictures (@reuterspictures) February 2, 2025

In the middle of this baying mob is 29 year old Israeli, Arbel Yehoud. How can the world exepect Israel to be at peace with Hamas and the Palestinians when they behave like such savages? pic.twitter.com/Ap3sK2SxlZ

— David Hollyoake 🎗️ (@Holly_Da) February 1, 2025

Look at this:

TERRIFIÉE. Après 482 jours de détention, l’otage israélienne Arbel Yehoud, 29 ans, enlevée le 7 octobre 2023 dans le kibboutz Nir Oz, est relâchée jeudi 20 janvier par ses geôliers du Djihad islamique, difficilement escortée en compagnie de combattants du #Hamas dans la ville de… pic.twitter.com/oDcVkcolt7

— Armin Arefi (@arminarefi) February 1, 2025

The AP described it as being choreographed and it really has been. All of the images are designed to present Hamas either as a powerful victor or a sad victim of Israeli aggression. Either one works for them with the right audience.

An intractable and revealing tension:

On the left, a hostage release the way Hamas likes it, portraying a picture of victory.

On the right, the setting for today’s release of Arbel Yehoud, Agam Berger and Gadi Mozes—after some production notes from Qatar—featuring a devastated… pic.twitter.com/yNZ4IP93hZ

— Debra Bowcott (@DebraBowcott) February 1, 2025

Whatever the backdrop, the main message is that Hamas is still in charge.

Hamas let three Israeli hostages go while on camera with certificates reading, “release order.” Ahead of the third release, seven masked men stood on a stage decorated with pictures of dead Hamas leaders and the sign “Zionism will not win.”

This raises an obvious and important question: What happens next? Assuming the ceasefire holds and more hostages are released, does Hamas just go right back to running things in Gaza? That’s clearly what they are hoping for but there’s no guarantee that will happen.

For most Israelis, Hamas’s long-term presence is unpalatable. Some might accept it if Hamas agreed to release all the remaining hostages held in Gaza. Others, particularly on the Israeli right, want to resume the war, even if it costs the lives of some of those captives, to force Hamas out.

If Hamas does stay in power, it will be hard for the group to rebuild Gaza without foreign support. Because many foreign donors will most likely be wary of helping unless Hamas steps down, it is possible that the group might willingly cede power to an alternative Palestinian leadership, instead of continuing to preside over an ungovernable wasteland. In talks mediated by Egypt, Hamas’s envoys have said they could hand over administrative responsibilities to a committee of Palestinian technocrats, but it’s unlikely that the group would willingly disband its armed wing even if it stopped running Gaza’s civilian affairs.

But there are other options including a continued Israeli occupation which would also be unpopular and would ruin the chances of something unprecedented which the US has been working on behind the scenes.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will announce after their meeting in Washington Tuesday a development in the contacts on a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Israel and Saudi Arabia will sign a normalization agreement which will include significant components of economic cooperation.

In return, the United States will supply to Saudi Arabia nuclear reactors for the generation of electricity, alongside strict oversight mechanisms, and enter a defense pact with Riyadh.

And what does Israel get from this, besides trade with the Saudis? A commitment that Hamas will not be allowed to remain in power in Gaza. Probably that means Hamas will formally step aside from leadership and become just a terrorist group.

Some sort of announcement should be coming tomorrow. If the Trump administration can pull this off, it sounds like it might be the best available option, though of course Hamas militants won’t evaporate. They will continue to rebuilt and plot Israel’s destruction they just won’t be visibly in charge.