Too Dumb to Check: Senate GOP Restraining Trump, Vought in Schumer Shutdown

It’s Day 9 of the Schumer Shutdown, and thus far, the consequences have been … minimal. Donald Trump and Russ Vought pledged mass layoffs and permanent job reductions in the federal bureaucracy, but thus far have only “suspended” grants for climate and infrastructure projects in blue states and cities. The White House seemed to tack backwards this week by starting and then retreating from an argument over back pay for furloughed workers, seemingly abandoning the swamp-draining strategy entirely, leading many to wonder what happened.

Question asked … question answered:

In recent conversations, Thune (R., S.D.) has counseled the president to attempt to limit the fallout from the shutdown for as long as possible, according to one of the people. Far-reaching government cuts and firings could backfire with the public, lawmakers have told the president’s aides, warning that such moves could cause voters to blame Republicans for the shutdown, the people said.

“The only reason we are forced to have these conversations is because the Democrats shut down the government,” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said, adding that the best way to avoid consequences from the shutdown is to reopen the government.

The Republican hand-wringing reflects discomfort among some in the party over the president’s shutdown strategy. Soon after government funding lapsed last week, Trump said the shutdown gave him an “unprecedented opportunity” to make cuts at agencies. White House officials have said they are considering firing thousands of federal workers and have raised the possibility that some workers won’t get back pay. …

There are signs that the White House is listening to Republicans’ concerns. The administration hasn’t moved forward with the layoffs that the president has been promising, though Trump said this week he might do so if the shutdown doesn’t end soon. The president’s advisers have taken steps to lessen the impact of the shutdown, including pledging to use tariff revenue to keep money flowing to a food program for women, infants and children. And Trump told reporters on Wednesday that most federal workers would get back pay.

Er … what is the point of playing nice? Democrats won’t budge until they face real pressure from real consequences. This is all still Kabuki Theater, thanks to the response from the White House thus far. That’s especially true given Trump’s threats to go nuclear in the run-up to October 1. If anything, the lack of consequences reinforces the Democrats’ TACO claim — Trump Always Chickens Out. Even worse, both Thune and the White House keep trying to offer pre-concessions in order to get Senate Dems to cave on the clean CR.

How’s that going? Senate Dem Angus King contemplated flipping on the CR — to support Schumer. He voted for it yesterday, but claims he may start voting with his caucus if the White House doesn’t agree to get the House back to consider Schumer’s demands. 

Jim Geraghty puts it bluntly this morning. Republicans are losing this shutdown because they are refusing to fight:

Once again, Democrats are seeing plenty of indications that the shutdown is inflicting more pain on their opponents.

It’s hard to blame Democrats for getting the impression that the GOP is blinking. They are. From the populist Republicans who cannot stomach a fight over funding America’s imminently insolvent entitlements to GOP lawmakers who earnestly fret over the prospect of American readiness in a dangerous world, it’s the Republican Party that seems to be losing its nerve. Johnson deserves credit for standing firm, but he is his conference’s servant as much as its leader. And so far, Democrats have evidenced far more tolerance for political pain — perhaps because they’re not experiencing much at the moment.

That could change. For now, however, Democratic observers are emboldened by the weakness they’re encountering in their opponents. Looking ahead, The Bulwark’s Jonathan Cohn cautions Democrats to stand firm and oppose Republican alterations to Obamacare programs that subsidize zero-premium plans for low-income health insurance consumers. Maybe Democrats will go for broke and demand Republicans reverse the Medicaid cuts in the summer’s reconciliation bill, sacrificing the only meaningful spending reduction in that legislation. If the GOP is going to cave, they might as well cave fully.

Why play along with Schumer? The beauty of a shutdown is that it allows the president to inflict pain precisely where it matters most to his opponents. Vought understood that, or at least it seemed he did. Instead, Trump and Vought are allowing themselves to be led by wobbly Republicans who are far more invested in the Swamp than they are in their own policy positions, or so it looks at the moment. 

Until Republicans actually fight for their agenda, we won’t make any progress at all, at least on draining the swamp and right-sizing the budget. Schumer handed Trump a golden opportunity to make sweeping changes. Let’s at least try that strategy before falling back to the same old wobbliness.